Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Mon, 09 Nov 2026 • 00:00 UTC+3 • Clausura - 16 • 🌤 25.6°C, 6 km/h mostly clear
Snapshotted at publish: No at 1.63 (66.0%, Model EV +7.6%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Bet3651.80 | 52.8% | -5% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.19 | 81.7% | -2.8% |
| BTTS | No | 1xBet1.63 | 66% · Yes 34% | +7.6% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Pinnacle1.62 | 64.8% · Over 35.2% | +5% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Bet3655.50 | 16.9% | -7.1% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.4 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 51% · Over 49% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Tigre · Home
Tigre's recent 2-0 win at Huracan is the standout result in a five-match run of 6 goals for and 7 against, though home form brought a 0-1 loss to Atletico Tucuman and a 1-2 loss to Banfield. Their historical weighted xG over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics is 1.88, against a model expected goals of 1.04 here.
Sarmiento Junin · Away
Sarmiento Junin have drawn two of their last five, including 1-1 home results against Barracas Central and River Plate, and their 3-1 win at Aldosivi shows they can score away. They failed to score in only one of those five matches, with 6 goals for and 7 against.
Sarmiento's Draw Habit
The latest H2H, a 1-0 Sarmiento Junin home win on 25 Apr 2026, sits alongside two 0-0 draws in this matchup, so recent meetings have been tight and low-scoring. Sarmiento Junin's two 1-1 draws in their last five support a close game rather than an open one. Tigre's 2-0 win at Huracan shows they can convert a narrow edge, and a 1-0 correct score fits that pattern. The evidence supports Tigre win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:51 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Tigre 1.04 – 0.70 Sarmiento Junin · expected total 1.75
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Tigre
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Tigre
Sarmiento Junin
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Liga Profesional
Tigre
Sarmiento Junin
Rank among 30 Liga Profesional teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Tigre at home · Sarmiento Junin away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Tigre (home)
Sarmiento Junin (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Sarmiento Junin 3 wins · 5 draws · Tigre 1 win · avg 1.6 goals · BTTS in 3 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Sarmiento Junin | 1–0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Sarmiento Junin | 0–0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Tigre | 0–0 | Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 20 Aug 2023 | Sarmiento Junin | 2–0 | Tigre | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 14 Apr 2023 | Tigre | 1–0 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 05 Oct 2022 | Sarmiento Junin | 2–2 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 03 Jan 2021 | Sarmiento Junin | 1–1 | Tigre | Primera Nacional |
| 21 Oct 2019 | Sarmiento Junin | 1–1 | Tigre | Primera Nacional |
| 10 Dec 2016 | Sarmiento Junin | 2–0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
📈 Recent Form
Tigre
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Huracan | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 24/10 | Atletico Tucuman | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 17/10 | Independ. Rivadavia | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 11/10 | Banfield | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/10 | Argentinos JRS | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 21/09 | Velez Sarsfield | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 13/09 | Rosario Central | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia L.P. | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 01/09 | Barracas Central | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 25/08 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | Home | 2–1 | W |
Sarmiento Junin
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Rosario Central | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 24/10 | Gimnasia L.P. | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 20/10 | Barracas Central | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 15/10 | River Plate | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 09/10 | Aldosivi | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Racing Club | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 13/09 | Belgrano Cordoba | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 04/09 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 29/08 | Union Santa Fe | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 23/08 | Estudiantes L.P. | Home | 2–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Liga Profesional
Tigre
Sarmiento Junin
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Tigre
Sarmiento Junin
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Liga Profesional predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws