Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Mon, 09 Nov 2026 • 04:15 UTC+3 • Clausura - 18 • Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau • ☁️ 27.1°C, 3 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 44% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 78.1% | — |
| BTTS | No | Current price not available | 64.4% · Yes 35.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 72.2% · Over 27.8% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Current price not available | 16.7% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.2 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 55.3% · Under 44.7% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Alianza Valledupar · Home
Alianza Valledupar have won both home matches in their last five, beating Internacional de Bogota 1-0 and drawing 2-2 with Águilas Doradas, while their two defeats came away. Their model expected goals of 1.12 sit just below their recent weighted xG of 1.42, suggesting the home output is repeatable.
Llaneros · Away
Llaneros have lost all three away matches in their last five, failing to score at Jaguares and conceding four at Internacional de Bogota. Their model expected goals of 0.71 is well below their recent weighted xG of 1.33, pointing to a quieter attacking day on the road.
Home edge in tight H2H
The latest H2H, a 0-0 draw at Llaneros on 26 Apr 2026, shows how narrow this pairing can be, and the earlier 1-0 Alianza win away in 2025 was equally tight. Alianza's home record of two wins from two in the last five contrasts with Llaneros' three away defeats, and the 3-1 Alianza home H2H win on 27 Sep 2025 is the one meeting that opened up. With the model expecting 1.12 goals for Alianza against 0.71 for Llaneros, a single-goal margin fits the 1-0 correct score and the Under 2.5 lean. The evidence supports Alianza Valledupar win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:51 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Alianza Valledupar 1.12 – 0.71 Llaneros · expected total 1.83
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Alianza Valledupar
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Alianza Valledupar at home · Llaneros away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Alianza Valledupar (home)
Llaneros (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Alianza Valledupar 2 wins · 1 draw · Llaneros 0 wins · avg 1.7 goals · BTTS in 1 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 2026 | Llaneros | 0–0 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Alianza Valledupar | 3–1 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Llaneros | 0–1 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
📈 Recent Form
Alianza Valledupar
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Independiente Medellin | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 29/10 | Once Caldas | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 26/10 | Internacional de Bogota | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 20/10 | Deportivo Pasto | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Águilas Doradas | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 03/10 | Deportivo Cali | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 28/09 | Jaguares | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 20/09 | Santa Fe | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 16/09 | Chico | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 13/09 | Junior | Home | 1–0 | W |
Llaneros
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Junior | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 27/10 | Jaguares | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 22/10 | Deportivo Cali | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 19/10 | Santa Fe | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 16/10 | Internacional de Bogota | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 10/10 | Once Caldas | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 05/10 | America de Cali | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 27/09 | Cucuta | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 21/09 | Atletico Nacional | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 13/09 | Internacional de Bogota | Away | 2–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Primera A
Alianza Valledupar #17 · 17 pts · Llaneros #14 · 22 pts
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws