Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Chico vs Atletico Nacional

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 20:00 UTC+3 • Clausura - 1 • Estadio La Independencia • 🌧 16.5°C, 12 km/h, 1.2mm drizzle

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS — Yes
Model 54.9% · Market best price ≈ 47.6% · Edge +8.8 pp
Best odds 2.10 Bet365 2.10William Hill 2.00Marathonbet 1.99
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 2.7% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 1.47 → 1.5 ▲2% 86% 62.2% 1.50 Betano 66.1% -3.9 pp
Double Chance 12 72% 72.7% 1.25 Bet365 78.2% -5.5 pp
BTTS Yes 84% 54.3% 2.10 Bet365 45.5% +8.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 85% 55.9% 2.00 Bet365 48.8% +7.1 pp
Correct Score 1-2 62% 6.6% 8.50 Bet365 5.8% +0.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.) Over 9.5 60% 52% 2.10 Bet365 44.3% +7.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Chico 1.65 – 1.81 Atletico Nacional · expected total 3.45

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Chico host Atletico Nacional at Estadio La Independencia to open the Clausura, and the table already tells a story of opposites. The visitors sit 1st on 40 points from 19 games, while Chico are down in 18th with 17 points from the same number of matches. The model leans firmly away: an away win is priced at 62.2% with confidence 86, and the bookmakers agree at odds of 1.5.

Form backs that up. Chico arrive on DWLLW, Nacional on DWDDL, and the underlying numbers point the same way: recent expected goals read 0.76 for the hosts against 1.33 for the visitors, with match expectations of 1.6481 and 1.8054 respectively. The head-to-head is brutal reading for Chico, including a 4-0 and a 6-2 in Nacional's favour across the last five meetings. No injuries are listed for either side.

Beyond the straight away win, the double chance covering the draw and Nacional lands at 72.7%. Both teams to score is favoured at 54.3% with odds of 2.1, while Over 2.5 goals comes in at 55.9% against odds of 2. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 6.6%, followed by 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 and 2-3. Corners are expected to reach 9.5, with Over 9.5 at 52%.

The honest caveat: this is a season opener, and round-one fixtures can be scrappy and unpredictable. Chico at home with nothing to lose can frustrate, and the 1.5 price on the away win offers little margin for error if Nacional start slowly.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Chico

Form (last 5)
DDeportes Tolima (A) 0–0 · 03/10/2026WDeportivo Pasto (H) 3–0 · 25/09/2026LMillonarios (A) 0–3 · 19/09/2026LAlianza Valledupar (H) 1–2 · 16/09/2026WIndependiente Medellin (H) 2–1 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.39
xG against (recent avg)0.74
Elo strength rating1296

Atletico Nacional

Form (last 5)
DDeportes Tolima (H) 0–0 · 08/10/2026WJunior (H) 3–1 · 01/10/2026DChapecoense-sc (H) 1–1 · 26/09/2026DMillonarios (H) 1–1 · 25/09/2026LLlaneros (A) 0–2 · 21/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)0.88
xG against (recent avg)0.47
Elo strength rating1659
ChicoAtletico Nacional
Goals scored (season avg)
0.80
1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
0.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
5
xG for (recent avg)
0.39
0.88
xG against (recent avg)
0.74
0.47
Elo strength rating
1296
1659

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Chico

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Atletico Nacional

Unbeaten 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Chico

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Atletico Nacional

Best attack (1.90 goals/game) 3rd best defence (0.90 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (12)

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Chico at home · Atletico Nacional away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Chico (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–2D–4L
W 8
D 2
L 4
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets7
Failed to score4

Atletico Nacional (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–0D–8L
W 11
L 8
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets3
Failed to score8
Chico (home)Atletico Nacional (away)
W 8
D 2
L 4
W 11
L 8
Played
14
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.20
Clean sheets
7
3
Failed to score
4
8

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
6.6%
0–2
4%
1–3
4%
0–1
3.7%
2–3
3.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Atletico Nacional 8 wins · 1 draw · Chico 1 win · avg 4 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10

8
1
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
17 Jan 2026 Atletico Nacional 4–0 Chico Primera A
06 Oct 2025 Chico 1–1 Atletico Nacional Primera A
16 Apr 2025 Atletico Nacional 4–1 Chico Primera A
29 Sep 2024 Atletico Nacional 6–2 Chico Primera A
17 Mar 2024 Chico 2–1 Atletico Nacional Primera A
22 Oct 2023 Chico 1–3 Atletico Nacional Primera A
07 May 2023 Atletico Nacional 3–1 Chico Primera A
07 Feb 2021 Atletico Nacional 2–0 Chico Primera A
12 Feb 2020 Chico 0–3 Atletico Nacional Primera A
30 Sep 2018 Atletico Nacional 3–2 Chico Primera A

📈 Recent Form

Chico

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Deportes Tolima Away 0–0 D
25/09 Deportivo Pasto Home 3–0 W
19/09 Millonarios Away 0–3 L
16/09 Alianza Valledupar Home 1–2 L
12/09 Independiente Medellin Home 2–1 W

Atletico Nacional

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
08/10 Deportes Tolima Home 0–0 D
01/10 Junior Home 3–1 W
26/09 Chapecoense-sc Home 1–1 D
25/09 Millonarios Home 1–1 D
21/09 Llaneros Away 0–2 L

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Chico #18 · 17 pts —  Atletico Nacional #1 · 40 pts

Chico

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–2D–12L
W 5
D 2
L 12
Played19
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets8
Failed to score17
Yellow cards81
Red cards8
xG for (avg)0.39
xG against (avg)0.74
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Atletico Nacional

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–1D–5L
W 13
D 1
L 5
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets12
Failed to score10
Yellow cards90
Red cards9
xG for (avg)0.88
xG against (avg)0.47
Corners for (avg)6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)5/2
ChicoAtletico Nacional
W 5
D 2
L 12
W 13
D 1
L 5
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
1.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
0.90
Clean sheets
8
12
Failed to score
17
10
Yellow cards
81
90
Red cards
8
9
xG for (avg)
0.39
0.88
xG against (avg)
0.74
0.47
Corners for (avg)
4.80
6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/1
5/2

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Chico

6
0-15
5
7
16-30
3
9
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
16
76-90
5
scored conceded

Atletico Nacional

8
0-15
8
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
8
7
46-60
13
2
61-75
15
4
76-90
17
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws