Predictions β†’ Colombia Primera A

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

Next match: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 β€’ 01:00 UTC+3 β€’ Clausura - 14 β€’ Estadio Atanasio Girardot β€’ 🌧 19.5Β°C, 1 km/h, 1.2mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 89% 71.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 79% 82.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 82% 50.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 51.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-0 64% 7.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.6 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 54.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Atletico Nacional 2.28 – 0.99 Deportivo Pasto Β· expected total 3.27

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Atletico Nacional host Deportivo Pasto at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot on Friday, with top spot in the Clausura table on the line. Nacional sit first on 40 points from 19 games, while Pasto are third on 34 from the same number of matches, so a home win would stretch the gap at the summit.

The model leans heavily on Nacional's attacking edge. Their expected goals figure stands at 2.2793 against Pasto's 0.9891, though recent form is more modest, with Nacional at 1.33 expected goals and Pasto at 0.8. The hosts' last five read DWDDL, the visitors DLWWL, and neither side carries an injury concern into the match. Head-to-head favours Nacional too: they won 2-1 in Pasto in March, drew 2-2 there in October 2025, and took a 3-0 home win in April 2025.

The headline tip is a home victory at 71.2 percent with confidence of 89. Double chance 1X is rated 82.8 percent. Both teams to score lands at 50.3 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 51.2 percent, and the correct-score model points to 2-0 at 7.9 percent, with 2-1 close behind. Corners are expected to stay low, with Under 9.5 at 54.2 percent and an expected 8.6.

The value question is whether bookmakers price Nacional shorter than 71.2 percent implies. If they do, the 1X at 82.8 percent is the safer route. The honest caveat: Nacional's recent expected goals of 1.33 sit well below their 2.2793 match figure, and a DWDDL run suggests the favourite tag carries real risk.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Atletico Nacional

Form (last 5)
DDeportes Tolima (H) 0–0 Β· 08/10/2026WJunior (H) 3–1 Β· 01/10/2026DChapecoense-sc (H) 1–1 Β· 26/09/2026DMillonarios (H) 1–1 Β· 25/09/2026LLlaneros (A) 0–2 Β· 21/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)0.88
xG against (recent avg)0.47
Elo strength rating1659

Deportivo Pasto

Form (last 5)
DFortaleza FC (H) 0–0 Β· 04/10/2026LChico (A) 0–3 Β· 25/09/2026WOnce Caldas (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026WAmerica de Cali (A) 1–0 Β· 15/09/2026LIndependiente Medellin (H) 1–4 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.31
xG against (recent avg)0.24
Elo strength rating1360
Atletico NacionalDeportivo Pasto
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.90
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
5
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.88
0.31
xG against (recent avg)
0.47
0.24
Elo strength rating
1659
1360

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Atletico Nacional

Unbeaten 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Deportivo Pasto

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Primera A

Atletico Nacional

Best attack (1.90 goals/game) 3rd best defence (0.90 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (12)

Deportivo Pasto

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Atletico Nacional at home Β· Deportivo Pasto away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Atletico Nacional (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–3D–0L
W 14
D 3
Played17
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets9
Failed to score2

Deportivo Pasto (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–4D–7L
W 5
D 4
L 7
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score5
Atletico Nacional (home)Deportivo Pasto (away)
W 14
D 3
W 5
D 4
L 7
Played
17
16
Goals scored (avg)
2.40
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.50
1.80
Clean sheets
9
3
Failed to score
2
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
7.9%
2–1
7.8%
1–0
6.2%
3–0
6%
3–1
5.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Atletico Nacional 8 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Deportivo Pasto 0 wins Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

8
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
29 Mar 2026 Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico Nacional Primera A
18 Oct 2025 Deportivo Pasto 2–2 Atletico Nacional Primera A
30 Apr 2025 Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Pasto Primera A
05 Dec 2024 Atletico Nacional 2–1 Deportivo Pasto Primera A
24 Nov 2024 Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Atletico Nacional Primera A
06 Oct 2024 Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico Nacional Primera A
24 Mar 2024 Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportivo Pasto Primera A
25 Aug 2023 Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pasto Primera A
18 Jun 2023 Atletico Nacional 3–2 Deportivo Pasto Primera A
20 May 2023 Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Atletico Nacional Primera A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Atletico Nacional

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
08/10 Deportes Tolima Home 0–0 D
01/10 Junior Home 3–1 W
26/09 Chapecoense-sc Home 1–1 D
25/09 Millonarios Home 1–1 D
21/09 Llaneros Away 0–2 L

Deportivo Pasto

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
04/10 Fortaleza FC Home 0–0 D
25/09 Chico Away 0–3 L
20/09 Once Caldas Home 1–0 W
15/09 America de Cali Away 1–0 W
10/09 Independiente Medellin Home 1–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Primera A

Atletico Nacional #1 Β· 40 pts β€”  Deportivo Pasto #3 Β· 34 pts

Atletico Nacional

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–1D–5L
W 13
D 1
L 5
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets12
Failed to score10
Yellow cards90
Red cards9
xG for (avg)0.88
xG against (avg)0.47
Corners for (avg)6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)5/2

Deportivo Pasto

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–4D–5L
W 10
D 4
L 5
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets10
Failed to score10
Yellow cards106
Red cards15
xG for (avg)0.31
xG against (avg)0.24
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0
Atletico NacionalDeportivo Pasto
W 13
D 1
L 5
W 10
D 4
L 5
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.40
Clean sheets
12
10
Failed to score
10
10
Yellow cards
90
106
Red cards
9
15
xG for (avg)
0.88
0.31
xG against (avg)
0.47
0.24
Corners for (avg)
6.40
4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
5/2
4/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Atletico Nacional

8
0-15
8
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
8
7
46-60
13
2
61-75
15
4
76-90
17
scored conceded

Deportivo Pasto

4
0-15
5
9
16-30
8
8
31-45
6
6
46-60
4
13
61-75
1
6
76-90
14
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws