Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 04:00 UTC+3 • Clausura - 18 • Estadio Metropolitano de Techo • 🌧 13.3°C, 3 km/h, 1.1mm drizzle
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | Current price not available | 32.8% | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | Current price not available | 67% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 43.3% · No 56.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 65.3% · Over 34.7% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Current price not available | 14.9% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 58.1% · Over 41.9% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Fortaleza FC · Home
Fortaleza FC are without a win in five, drawing three, and have scored just 4 goals in that run. Their recent xG for of 0.83 over up to five recorded matches is modest, yet the model gives them 1.03 expected goals here.
Independiente Medellin · Away
Independiente Medellin have lost four of five and conceded 11 goals, with no clean sheet in that stretch. Their recent xG for of 1.27 over up to five recorded matches is higher than Fortaleza's, but the model sets their expected goals at 1.06.
Low-scoring draw profile
Fortaleza's last five produced 3 draws, including 1-1 at home to Deportivo Cali and 1-1 at home to Millonarios. The latest head-to-head, 1-0 for Independiente Medellin, came with Fortaleza as the away side, so it does not settle this home fixture. The model's 1.03 and 1.06 expected goals point to a tight contest, and the 1-1 correct score carries 14.9%. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Fortaleza FC 1.03 – 1.06 Independiente Medellin · expected total 2.09
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Fortaleza FC
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Primera A
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Fortaleza FC at home · Independiente Medellin away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Fortaleza FC (home)
Independiente Medellin (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Fortaleza FC 1 win · 4 draws · Independiente Medellin 5 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | Independiente Medellin | 1–0 | Fortaleza FC | Copa Colombia |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Independiente Medellin | 1–0 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Independiente Medellin | 3–1 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 04 Sep 2025 | Independiente Medellin | 2–1 | Fortaleza FC | Copa Colombia |
| 27 Aug 2025 | Fortaleza FC | 0–0 | Independiente Medellin | Copa Colombia |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Fortaleza FC | 0–0 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 27 Aug 2024 | Fortaleza FC | 2–2 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Independiente Medellin | 2–2 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 15 Oct 2016 | Fortaleza FC | 2–1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 02 May 2016 | Independiente Medellin | 3–0 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
📈 Recent Form
Fortaleza FC
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | America de Cali | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 25/10 | Deportivo Cali | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 21/10 | Internacional de Bogota | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 09/10 | Millonarios | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 04/10 | Deportivo Pasto | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 28/09 | Deportes Tolima | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 20/09 | Junior | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 12/09 | Jaguares | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 06/09 | Santa Fe | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 02/09 | Once Caldas | Home | 1–2 | L |
Independiente Medellin
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Alianza Valledupar | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 29/10 | Internacional de Bogota | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 26/10 | Atletico Nacional | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Once Caldas | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 15/10 | Atletico Nacional | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 12/10 | America de Cali | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 06/10 | Santa Fe | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 30/09 | Millonarios | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 27/09 | Junior | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 23/09 | Jaguares | Home | 2–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Primera A
Fortaleza FC #15 · 22 pts · Independiente Medellin #11 · 26 pts
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws