Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 01:10 UTC+3 • Clausura - 15 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot • 🌦 19.5°C, 2 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 82% 50.6% 1.95 William Hill 50.8% -0.2 pp
Double Chance 12 71% 71.9% 1.33 Bet365 73.3% -1.4 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 53.1% 1.80 Bet365 53.2% -0.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.2% 1.95 Bet365 49.1% +0.1 pp
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.6% 8.50 Bet365 5.8% +1.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.) Under 9.5 60% 52% 1.68 1xBet 55.6% -3.6 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Independiente Medellin 1.82 – 1.25 Once Caldas · expected total 3.07

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Independiente Medellin host Once Caldas at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot in round 15 of the Clausura, and the table tells an uncomfortable story for the hosts. Medellin sit 11th on 26 points from 19 games, while the visitors are 5th on 33 points from the same number of matches. Form is similarly split: Medellin arrive with WLDLW, Once Caldas with WDLLW.

The model leans on the underlying numbers rather than the standings. Medellin's recent expected goals sit at 2.04 against Once Caldas's 0.74, and the goal expectations of 1.8208 for the home side versus 1.2533 for the away side point to a clear territorial edge. There are no injuries listed for either squad, so nothing distorts the picture.

The headline tip is a home win at 50.6 percent probability, priced at 1.95. The double chance covering the home side and the draw comes in at 71.9 percent, which is the safer route if you want to avoid the outright risk. Both teams to score is rated 53.1 percent at 1.8, and over 2.5 goals sits at 49.2 percent at 1.95. The most likely correct score is 2-1 at 7.6 percent, with 2-0 and 1-0 close behind. Corners are expected to land under 9.5 at 52 percent.

The value question is whether 1.95 underrates a side the model gives 50.6 percent. The honest caveat: Medellin's league position and the recent 1-1 head-to-head suggest this is tighter than the xG gap implies, and a low-scoring draw is a live risk.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Independiente Medellin

Form (last 5)
WAmerica de Cali (A) 2–1 · 12/10/2026LSanta Fe (H) 0–1 · 06/10/2026DMillonarios (H) 2–2 · 30/09/2026LJunior (A) 0–2 · 27/09/2026WJaguares (H) 2–1 · 22/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)2.04
xG against (recent avg)0.77
Elo strength rating1695

Once Caldas

Form (last 5)
WLlaneros (H) 1–0 · 10/10/2026DInternacional de Bogota (A) 1–1 · 04/10/2026LBucaramanga (H) 1–3 · 26/09/2026LDeportivo Pasto (A) 0–1 · 20/09/2026WDeportes Tolima (H) 1–0 · 16/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)0.29
xG against (recent avg)0.19
Elo strength rating1480
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
3
4
xG for (recent avg)
2.04
0.29
xG against (recent avg)
0.77
0.19
Elo strength rating
1695
1480

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Independiente Medellin

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Once Caldas

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Independiente Medellin

2nd best attack (1.50 goals/game)

Once Caldas

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Independiente Medellin at home · Once Caldas away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Independiente Medellin (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–3D–6L
W 8
D 3
L 6
Played17
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2

Once Caldas (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–11D–3L
W 3
D 11
L 3
Played17
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Independiente Medellin (home)Once Caldas (away)
W 8
D 3
L 6
W 3
D 11
L 3
Played
17
17
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.20
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
2
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.6%
2–0
6.1%
1–0
5.8%
3–1
4.6%
3–0
3.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Independiente Medellin 4 wins · 4 draws · Once Caldas 2 wins · avg 3.2 goals · BTTS in 8 of 10

4
4
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 Apr 2026 Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente Medellin Primera A
13 Oct 2025 Once Caldas 1–5 Independiente Medellin Primera A
20 Apr 2025 Independiente Medellin 2–0 Once Caldas Primera A
28 Sep 2024 Once Caldas 0–2 Independiente Medellin Primera A
17 Mar 2024 Independiente Medellin 1–2 Once Caldas Primera A
01 Oct 2023 Once Caldas 2–2 Independiente Medellin Primera A
11 May 2023 Independiente Medellin 2–2 Once Caldas Primera A
24 Jul 2022 Independiente Medellin 1–1 Once Caldas Primera A
05 Feb 2022 Once Caldas 2–1 Independiente Medellin Primera A
18 Sep 2021 Independiente Medellin 3–1 Once Caldas Primera A

📈 Recent Form

Independiente Medellin

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12/10 America de Cali Away 2–1 W
06/10 Santa Fe Home 0–1 L
30/09 Millonarios Home 2–2 D
27/09 Junior Away 0–2 L
22/09 Jaguares Home 2–1 W

Once Caldas

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Llaneros Home 1–0 W
04/10 Internacional de Bogota Away 1–1 D
26/09 Bucaramanga Home 1–3 L
20/09 Deportivo Pasto Away 0–1 L
16/09 Deportes Tolima Home 1–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Independiente Medellin #11 · 26 pts —  Once Caldas #5 · 33 pts

Independiente Medellin

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–5D–7L
W 7
D 5
L 7
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets7
Failed to score5
Yellow cards91
Red cards8
xG for (avg)2.04
xG against (avg)0.77
Corners for (avg)6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0

Once Caldas

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–9D–2L
W 8
D 9
L 2
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets6
Failed to score5
Yellow cards89
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.29
xG against (avg)0.19
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)4/1
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas
W 7
D 5
L 7
W 8
D 9
L 2
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.20
Clean sheets
7
6
Failed to score
5
5
Yellow cards
91
89
Red cards
8
4
xG for (avg)
2.04
0.29
xG against (avg)
0.77
0.19
Corners for (avg)
6.10
5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/0
4/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Independiente Medellin

5
0-15
4
9
16-30
10
12
31-45
6
4
46-60
9
3
61-75
6
7
76-90
13
scored conceded

Once Caldas

5
0-15
11
7
16-30
2
7
31-45
8
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
10
76-90
13
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws