Predictions β†’ England Championship

Southampton vs Bolton

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ 🌀 14.1Β°C, 18 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 86% 61.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 78% 81% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 81% 49.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 50.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 68% 10.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 54.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Southampton 1.74 – 0.81 Bolton Β· expected total 2.55

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Southampton

Form (last 5)
LWrexham (A) 1–2 Β· 19/09/2026WBristol City (H) 4–1 Β· 12/09/2026WSwansea (H) 3–1 Β· 08/09/2026DLincoln (A) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026DBirmingham (A) 1–1 Β· 01/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.54
xG against (recent avg)1.46
Elo strength rating1723
Players out3

Bolton

Form (last 5)
LStoke City (H) 1–2 Β· 10/10/2026WNorwich (A) 4–3 Β· 20/09/2026WCardiff (H) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026LWest Ham (H) 2–3 Β· 08/09/2026LMillwall (A) 0–4 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.12
xG against (recent avg)1.73
Elo strength rating1330
Players out5
SouthamptonBolton
Goals scored (season avg)
2.40
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.54
1.12
xG against (recent avg)
1.46
1.73
Elo strength rating
1723
1330
Players out
3
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Southampton

BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Bolton

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Southampton

2nd best attack (2.40 goals/game) Best BTTS rate (100%)

Bolton

2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Southampton at home Β· Bolton away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Southampton (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–0D–0L
W 4
Played4
Goals scored (avg)3.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Bolton (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Southampton (home)Bolton (away)
W 4
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
3.80
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.50
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.2%
2–0
9.7%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
5.6%
3–1
4.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Southampton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Wrexham Away 1–2 L
12/09 Bristol City Home 4–1 W
08/09 Swansea Home 3–1 W
05/09 Lincoln Away 1–1 D
01/09 Birmingham Away 1–1 D

Bolton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Stoke City Home 1–2 L
20/09 Norwich Away 4–3 W
12/09 Cardiff Home 1–0 W
08/09 West Ham Home 2–3 L
05/09 Millwall Away 0–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Southampton #11 Β· 13 pts β€”  Bolton #17 Β· 10 pts

Southampton

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–2D–2L
W 5
D 2
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards14
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.54
xG against (avg)1.46
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Bolton

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–5L
W 3
D 1
L 5
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards13
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.12
xG against (avg)1.73
Corners for (avg)3.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
SouthamptonBolton
W 5
D 2
L 2
W 3
D 1
L 5
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
2.40
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.90
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
0
3
Yellow cards
14
13
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
1.54
1.12
xG against (avg)
1.46
1.73
Corners for (avg)
4.60
3.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Southampton

2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
7
scored conceded

Bolton

3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Southampton

  • ❌ C. Jander β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ T. Harwood-Bellis β€” Injury
  • ❌ C. Bragg β€” Red Card

Bolton

  • ❌ R. Rodrigues β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ X. Simons β€” Red Card
  • ❌ L. Stephenson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Brunt β€” Injury
  • ❌ C. Forino-Joseph β€” Groin Injury

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws