Predictions β†’ England Championship

Wolves vs Bolton

Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ Molineux Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 12.6Β°C, 10 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.4 β†’ 1.45 β–²4% 90% 73.5% 1.45 Betano 71% +2.5 pp
Double Chance 1X 76% 78.4% 1.11 BetVictor 88.8% -10.4 pp
BTTS Yes 82% 50.6% 1.80 Bet365 53.8% -3.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 52.2% 1.62 Betano 60.3% -8.1 pp
Correct Score 2-1 64% 7.9% 8.50 Bet365 6% +1.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.2 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.5% 1.67 Pinnacle 57.4% -3.9 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Wolves 1.97 – 1.04 Bolton Β· expected total 3.01

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Wolves host Bolton at Molineux on Tuesday night with the two clubs separated by four points and seven places in the Championship table. Wolves sit 5th on 14 points from 8 games, while Bolton are 17th on 10 points from 9. The model gives the home side a 73.5% chance of winning, with a double chance of 1X at 78.4%.

Wolves' recent form reads LWLWD, and their underlying numbers are strong: they are expected to score 1.9676 goals, with 1.7 xG across recent matches. Bolton arrive with LWWLL form and a far weaker attacking profile, expected to score just 1.0405, with 1.12 xG recently. The hosts also carry a lengthy injury list including J. Bellegarde, S. Johnstone and R. Jimenez, while Bolton are without R. Rodrigues, X. Simons and others.

The headline tip is a home win at odds of 1.45, and the model makes Over 2.5 goals a 52.2% play at 1.62. Both teams to score is a coin-flip at 50.6%, priced at 1.8. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7.9%, with 2-0 and 1-0 close behind. Corners look interesting: the model expects 10.2 and gives Over 9.5 a 53.5% chance.

The honest caveat is Wolves' inconsistent form and that crowded treatment room. A 73.5% home probability is strong but not bulletproof, and Bolton's away record, while poor, includes two wins in their last five. Treat the 1.45 as fair rather than generous, and the real value may sit in the goals and corners markets.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Wolves

Form (last 5)
LMiddlesbrough (A) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026WWest Brom (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026LEverton (A) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026WSheffield Utd (A) 1–0 Β· 13/09/2026DBirmingham (A) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.79
xG against (recent avg)0.58
Elo strength rating1404
Players out8

Bolton

Form (last 5)
LStoke City (H) 1–2 Β· 10/10/2026WNorwich (A) 4–3 Β· 20/09/2026WCardiff (H) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026LWest Ham (H) 2–3 Β· 08/09/2026LMillwall (A) 0–4 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.12
xG against (recent avg)1.73
Elo strength rating1330
Players out5
WolvesBolton
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.79
1.12
xG against (recent avg)
0.58
1.73
Elo strength rating
1404
1330
Players out
8
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Wolves

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Bolton

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Wolves

3rd best attack (1.90 goals/game)

Bolton

2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Wolves at home Β· Bolton away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Wolves (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Bolton (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Wolves (home)Bolton (away)
W 2
D 1
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played
3
4
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.50
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.9%
2–0
7.6%
1–0
6.9%
3–1
5.2%
3–0
5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Bolton 3 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Wolves 3 wins Β· avg 3.5 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 10

3
4
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
21 Apr 2018 Bolton 0–4 Wolves Championship
25 Nov 2017 Wolves 5–1 Bolton Championship
02 Feb 2016 Wolves 2–2 Bolton Championship
12 Sep 2015 Bolton 2–1 Wolves Championship
31 Jan 2015 Bolton 2–2 Wolves Championship
20 Sep 2014 Wolves 1–0 Bolton Championship
06 Apr 2013 Bolton 2–0 Wolves Championship
23 Oct 2012 Wolves 2–2 Bolton Championship
31 Mar 2012 Wolves 2–3 Bolton Premier League
31 Dec 2011 Bolton 1–1 Wolves Premier League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Wolves

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Middlesbrough Away 0–1 L
20/09 West Brom Home 1–0 W
16/09 Everton Away 0–1 L
13/09 Sheffield Utd Away 1–0 W
06/09 Birmingham Away 2–2 D

Bolton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Stoke City Home 1–2 L
20/09 Norwich Away 4–3 W
12/09 Cardiff Home 1–0 W
08/09 West Ham Home 2–3 L
05/09 Millwall Away 0–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Wolves #5 Β· 14 pts β€”  Bolton #17 Β· 10 pts

Wolves

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–2L
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards10
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.79
xG against (avg)0.58
Corners for (avg)6.00
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Bolton

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–5L
W 3
D 1
L 5
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards13
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.12
xG against (avg)1.73
Corners for (avg)3.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
WolvesBolton
W 4
D 2
L 2
W 3
D 1
L 5
Played
8
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.90
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
10
13
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.79
1.12
xG against (avg)
0.58
1.73
Corners for (avg)
6.00
3.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Wolves

1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
4
scored conceded

Bolton

3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Wolves

  • ❌ J. Bellegarde β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Johnstone β€” Knock
  • ❌ L. Krejci β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ R. Said β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Y. Mosquera β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ K. Trippier β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Bueno β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Jimenez β€” Knee Injury

Bolton

  • ❌ R. Rodrigues β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ X. Simons β€” Red Card
  • ❌ L. Stephenson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Brunt β€” Injury
  • ❌ C. Forino-Joseph β€” Groin Injury

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: Tim Robinson