Burnley vs Charlton
Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 β’ 18:45 UTC+3 β’ Round 10 β’ Turf Moor β’ βοΈ 11.1Β°C, 16 km/h clear
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.71 β 1.65 βΌ4% | 86% | 61.1% | 1.65 | Betano | 61.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 74% | 75.8% | 1.18 | Betano | 84% | -8.2 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 50.3% | 1.87 | Betfair | 51% | -0.7 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81% | 49.2% | 2.02 | Betano | 47.8% | +1.4 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 69% | 10.8% | 7.00 | William Hill | 7.1% | +3.7 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.2% | 1.85 | Betfair | 51.1% | +1.1 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: Burnley 1.44 β 0.86 Charlton Β· expected total 2.30
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β a big drop means the value window is closing.
π§ Match Preview
The form lines explain the caution. Burnley's last five read WDLDL, Charlton's DLDDL β one win between them in that stretch. The goal projections lean heavily home: Burnley are expected to score around 1.44 goals against Charlton's 0.86, with recent xG of 1.16 and 0.86 respectively. Both squads are badly stretched, with Burnley listing sixteen absentees and Charlton twelve, which adds real noise to any read on this fixture. Historically, the head-to-head is one-sided: Burnley won 4-0 and 3-0 at home in 2015 and 2013, and Charlton's 0-3 win in 2016 is the only recent away success.
The headline tip is a Burnley win at 61.1% probability, priced at 1.65, with double chance 1X at 75.8%. The model also leans BTTS Yes at 50.3% (1.87) and Under 2.5 at 49.2% (2.02), while corners are expected at 9.6, tipping Over 9.5 at 52.2%. The correct-score pick is 1-0 at 10.8%, with 1-0 the top scoreline at 13.22. Value likely hides in the Under 2.5 and the narrow home scorelines rather than the outright price.
The honest caveat: with sixteen Burnley players unavailable, the 61.1% home probability may be softer than it looks, and Charlton's draw habit makes 1X the safer route than the win alone.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Burnley
Charlton
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Burnley
Charlton
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Championship
Burnley
Charlton
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
Burnley at home Β· Charlton away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Burnley (home)
Charlton (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Burnley 5 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Charlton 1 win Β· avg 2.5 goals Β· BTTS in 0 of 6
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May 2016 | Charlton | 0β3 | Burnley | Championship |
| 19 Dec 2015 | Burnley | 4β0 | Charlton | Championship |
| 22 Mar 2014 | Charlton | 0β3 | Burnley | Championship |
| 28 Sep 2013 | Burnley | 3β0 | Charlton | Championship |
| 02 Mar 2013 | Charlton | 0β1 | Burnley | Championship |
| 17 Nov 2012 | Burnley | 0β1 | Charlton | Championship |
π Recent Form
Burnley
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Watford | Away | 4β0 | W |
| 19/09 | Derby | Home | 1β1 | D |
| 12/09 | Swansea | Away | 1β3 | L |
| 08/09 | Wrexham | Away | 1β1 | D |
| 05/09 | Bristol City | Home | 1β2 | L |
Charlton
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bristol City | Home | 1β1 | D |
| 19/09 | Cardiff | Away | 1β3 | L |
| 12/09 | Portsmouth | Home | 0β0 | D |
| 09/09 | QPR | Home | 0β0 | D |
| 05/09 | Stoke City | Away | 0β4 | L |
π Season Comparison β Championship
Burnley #22 Β· 7 pts β Charlton #12 Β· 13 pts
Burnley
Charlton
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Burnley
Charlton
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Burnley
- β E. Agyei β Injury
- β J. Banel β Injury
- β A. Barnes β Injury
- β J. Beyer β Hamstring Injury
- β J. Cullen β Knee Injury
- β B. Humphreys β Inactive
- β J. Laurent β Red Card
- β Lucas Pires β Inactive
- β H. Mejbri β Inactive
- β D. Satpaev β Hamstring Injury
- β L. Foster β Inactive
- β J. Bruun Larsen β Injury
- β M. Obafemi β Inactive
- β A. Ramsey β Hamstring Injury
- β S. Sambo β Inactive
- β M. Tresor Ndayishimiye β Inactive
Charlton
- β J. Edwards β Ankle Injury
- β C. Kelman β Shoulder Injury
- β M. Mbick β Knee Injury
- β T. Ouma β Lacking Match Fitness
- β K. Ramsay β Ankle Injury
- β R. Burke β Inactive
- β M. Godden β Muscle Injury
- β B. Koumetio β Muscle Injury
- β W. Mannion β Shoulder Injury
- β C. Sichenje β Knee Injury
- β N. Chalobah β Muscle Injury
- β D. McNamara β Red Card
More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws
Referee: Anthony Backhouse