Predictions β†’ England Championship

Burnley vs Wolves

Next match: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ Turf Moor β€’ β˜€οΈ 8Β°C, 13 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 53.6% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 47.6% Β· Edge +8.4 pp
Best odds 2.10 Betfair 2.10Marathonbet 2.041xBet 2.04
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 2.9% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.15 β†’ 2.2 β–²2% 77% 37.8% 2.20 Dafabet 44.7% -6.9 pp
Double Chance 12 67% 65.9% 1.26 Marathonbet 74.4% -8.5 pp
BTTS No 80% 48.2% 2.25 Betfair 41.9% +6.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 53.6% 2.10 Betfair 45.2% +8.4 pp
Correct Score 0-1 65% 8.3% 9.00 Betfair 5.2% +3.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Burnley 1.13 – 1.11 Wolves Β· expected total 2.25

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Burnley host Wolves at Turf Moor on Friday night with the two clubs in very different moods. The visitors sit 5th on 14 points from 8 games, while the Clarets are 22nd with just 7 points from 9, so the stakes are about stopping the slide against a side pushing at the top end.

The model leans toward the away side, giving Wolves a 37.8 percent win probability at odds of 2.2, with a confidence reading of 77. Recent expected goals back that up: Wolves have created 1.7 xG across their recent games against Burnley's 1.16, and the season-long attacking figures are near-identical at 1.133 for the hosts and 1.1125 for the visitors. Form reads WDLDL for Burnley and LWLWD for Wolves. The injury list is the real story, with Burnley missing a long cast including A. Barnes, J. Cullen and L. Foster, while Wolves are without J. Bellegarde, K. Trippier and R. Jimenez among others.

Beyond the outright, the double chance covering 1 and 2 carries a 65.9 percent probability, and Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 53.6 percent with odds of 2.1. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.2 percent, priced at 2.25. The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 8.3 percent, with 1-2 and 0-2 close behind. Corners point Over 9.5, with an expected 10.5 and a 54.2 percent probability.

The honest caveat: a 37.8 percent away win is not a dominant edge, and Burnley's home crowd plus a low-scoring profile can easily drag this into a scrappy draw. Treat the 2.2 price as thin value, not a banker.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Burnley

Form (last 5)
WWatford (A) 4–0 Β· 10/10/2026DDerby (H) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LSwansea (A) 1–3 Β· 12/09/2026DWrexham (A) 1–1 Β· 08/09/2026LBristol City (H) 1–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.81
xG against (recent avg)1.18
Elo strength rating1390
Players out16

Wolves

Form (last 5)
LMiddlesbrough (A) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026WWest Brom (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026LEverton (A) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026WSheffield Utd (A) 1–0 Β· 13/09/2026DBirmingham (A) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.79
xG against (recent avg)0.58
Elo strength rating1404
Players out8
BurnleyWolves
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
0
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.81
0.79
xG against (recent avg)
1.18
0.58
Elo strength rating
1390
1404
Players out
16
8

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Burnley

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Wolves

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Burnley

Best BTTS rate (83%)

Wolves

3rd best attack (1.90 goals/game)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Burnley at home Β· Wolves away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Burnley (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–1L
D 3
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Wolves (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Burnley (home)Wolves (away)
D 3
L 1
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.60
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
8.3%
1–2
5.9%
0–2
5.2%
1–3
2.2%
0–3
1.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Burnley 4 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Wolves 3 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

4
3
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 May 2026 Burnley 1–1 Wolves Premier League
26 Oct 2025 Wolves 2–3 Burnley Premier League
28 Aug 2024 Wolves 2–0 Burnley League Cup
02 Apr 2024 Burnley 1–1 Wolves Premier League
05 Dec 2023 Wolves 1–0 Burnley Premier League
09 Jul 2022 Wolves 3–0 Burnley Friendlies Clubs
24 Apr 2022 Burnley 1–0 Wolves Premier League
01 Dec 2021 Wolves 0–0 Burnley Premier League
25 Apr 2021 Wolves 0–4 Burnley Premier League
21 Dec 2020 Burnley 2–1 Wolves Premier League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Burnley

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Watford Away 4–0 W
19/09 Derby Home 1–1 D
12/09 Swansea Away 1–3 L
08/09 Wrexham Away 1–1 D
05/09 Bristol City Home 1–2 L

Wolves

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Middlesbrough Away 0–1 L
20/09 West Brom Home 1–0 W
16/09 Everton Away 0–1 L
13/09 Sheffield Utd Away 1–0 W
06/09 Birmingham Away 2–2 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Burnley #22 Β· 7 pts β€”  Wolves #5 Β· 14 pts

Burnley

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–4D–4L
W 1
D 4
L 4
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.81
xG against (avg)1.18
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Wolves

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–2L
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards10
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.79
xG against (avg)0.58
Corners for (avg)6.00
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
BurnleyWolves
W 1
D 4
L 4
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played
9
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.40
Clean sheets
1
2
Failed to score
0
1
Yellow cards
19
10
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
0.81
0.79
xG against (avg)
1.18
0.58
Corners for (avg)
4.80
6.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Burnley

5
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
76-90
3
scored conceded

Wolves

1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Burnley

  • ❌ E. Agyei β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Banel β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Barnes β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Beyer β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Cullen β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ B. Humphreys β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Laurent β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Lucas Pires β€” Inactive
  • ❌ H. Mejbri β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Satpaev β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ L. Foster β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Bruun Larsen β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Obafemi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Ramsey β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ S. Sambo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Tresor Ndayishimiye β€” Inactive

Wolves

  • ❌ J. Bellegarde β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Johnstone β€” Knock
  • ❌ L. Krejci β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ R. Said β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Y. Mosquera β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ K. Trippier β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Bueno β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Jimenez β€” Knee Injury

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws