Predictions β†’ England Championship

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 11:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ Riverside Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 11.3Β°C, 12 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Match Winner (1X2) β€” Home
Model 71.9% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 67.1% Β· Edge +5.9 pp
Best odds 1.49 Dafabet 1.491xBet 1.47
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.0% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.47 β†’ 1.49 β–²1% 90% 72.4% 1.49 Dafabet 66.5% +5.9 pp
Double Chance 1X 81% 84.5% β€” β€” 84.5% 0 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 48.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-0 68% 10% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 55.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Middlesbrough 2.02 – 0.79 Cardiff Β· expected total 2.81

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Saturday's Championship clash at the Riverside pits second against twenty-first, and the model is firmly on the hosts. Middlesbrough sit on 18 points from 9 games, while Cardiff arrive with just 7 from the same number, and the gap shows up everywhere in the numbers.

The home side's recent form reads WDDWL, the visitors LWLDL. More telling is the attacking split: Middlesbrough are generating 2.0234 expected goals at home, with 2.08 across their recent matches, while Cardiff's road output sits at 0.7852, even if their recent xG of 2.04 hints at chances going unconverted. Both squads are depleted, with seven absentees apiece, so depth will matter.

The headline tip is a home win at 72.4 percent, priced at 1.49, with double chance 1X at 84.5 percent for those wanting a safer route. Both teams to score lands at 48.7 percent and Over 2.5 at 49.8 percent, both essentially coin flips, so the goals markets offer little edge. The correct-score model favours 2-0 at 12.4 percent, ahead of 1-0 at 11.3 and 2-1 at 9.74. Corners look interesting: Over 9.5 carries a 55.2 percent probability against an expected 11.

The honest caveat is Cardiff's recent xG of 2.04, which suggests they are creating more than their league position implies, and a 1.49 price leaves little margin for error if the visitors finally convert.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Middlesbrough

Form (last 5)
WWolves (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026DBirmingham (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026DMillwall (H) 2–2 Β· 15/09/2026WNorwich (H) 4–3 Β· 12/09/2026LCrystal Palace (A) 0–3 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.76
xG against (recent avg)1.23
Elo strength rating1693
Players out7

Cardiff

Form (last 5)
LBlackburn (A) 1–2 Β· 10/10/2026WCharlton (H) 3–1 Β· 19/09/2026LBolton (A) 0–1 Β· 12/09/2026DStoke City (H) 1–1 Β· 08/09/2026LPortsmouth (A) 0–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)2.04
xG against (recent avg)1.20
Elo strength rating1322
Players out7
MiddlesbroughCardiff
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.76
2.04
xG against (recent avg)
1.23
1.20
Elo strength rating
1693
1322
Players out
7
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Middlesbrough

Unbeaten 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Cardiff

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Middlesbrough

3rd best attack (1.90 goals/game)

Cardiff

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Middlesbrough at home Β· Cardiff away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Middlesbrough (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–0L
W 4
D 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Cardiff (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–4L
D 1
L 4
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Middlesbrough (home)Cardiff (away)
W 4
D 1
D 1
L 4
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
2.40
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.80
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
10%
1–0
9.1%
2–1
7.9%
3–0
6.7%
3–1
5.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Cardiff 1 win Β· 3 draws Β· Middlesbrough 6 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

1
3
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
04 Jan 2025 Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff Championship
31 Aug 2024 Cardiff 0–2 Middlesbrough Championship
27 Apr 2024 Cardiff 1–4 Middlesbrough Championship
03 Oct 2023 Middlesbrough 2–0 Cardiff Championship
11 Feb 2023 Cardiff 1–3 Middlesbrough Championship
13 Sep 2022 Middlesbrough 2–3 Cardiff Championship
27 Apr 2022 Middlesbrough 2–0 Cardiff Championship
23 Oct 2021 Cardiff 0–2 Middlesbrough Championship
27 Feb 2021 Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff Championship
24 Oct 2020 Cardiff 1–1 Middlesbrough Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Middlesbrough

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Wolves Home 1–0 W
19/09 Birmingham Away 2–2 D
15/09 Millwall Home 2–2 D
12/09 Norwich Home 4–3 W
08/09 Crystal Palace Away 0–3 L

Cardiff

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Blackburn Away 1–2 L
19/09 Charlton Home 3–1 W
12/09 Bolton Away 0–1 L
08/09 Stoke City Home 1–1 D
05/09 Portsmouth Away 0–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Middlesbrough #2 Β· 18 pts β€”  Cardiff #21 Β· 7 pts

Middlesbrough

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–1L
W 5
D 3
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards11
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.76
xG against (avg)1.23
Corners for (avg)6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Cardiff

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–4D–4L
W 1
D 4
L 4
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards18
Red cards0
xG for (avg)2.04
xG against (avg)1.20
Corners for (avg)7.10
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
MiddlesbroughCardiff
W 5
D 3
L 1
W 1
D 4
L 4
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.60
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
0
2
Yellow cards
11
18
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.76
2.04
xG against (avg)
1.23
1.20
Corners for (avg)
6.10
7.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Middlesbrough

3
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
76-90
4
scored conceded

Cardiff

3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Middlesbrough

  • ❌ T. Conway β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Morris β€” Injury
  • ❌ D. Strelec β€” Health problems
  • ❌ A. Bangura β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ A. Phillips β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ J. Sarmiento β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Jones β€” Calf Injury

Cardiff

  • ❌ W. Fish β€” Hernia
  • ❌ D. Lawlor β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Chambers β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ G. Osho β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Colwill β€” Health problems
  • ❌ I. Davies β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Bielik β€” Suspended

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws