Charlton vs Norwich

Charlton host Norwich at The Valley on Saturday with both clubs stuck in the wrong half of the Championship table. The hosts sit 13th on 14 points from 10 games, while Norwich are 20th with just 9 points, so this is a fixture neither side can comfortably afford to lose.

The model leans toward the home side, giving Charlton a 36.8 percent win probability at 77 percent confidence, with the double chance 1X rated at 75 percent. Form offers little inspiration either way: Charlton have drawn four of their last five (DDLDD), and Norwich arrive on a five-match losing run (LLLLL). Expected goals tell a low-scoring story, with Charlton at 0.9572 and Norwich at 0.6295, and recent xG figures of 0.86 and 1.08 respectively. Both squads are badly depleted, with 12 Charlton players and 10 Norwich players listed as injured.

The headline tips follow that cautious script: Under 2.5 goals at 58.3 percent, BTTS No at 54.5 percent, and a 1-0 correct score at 15.5 percent, with 1-0 the most likely single scoreline in the model's top-scores list. Corners point to Under 9.5 at 53.4 percent, with an expected 8.9. Where value may hide is the match result market, since no bookmaker odds were supplied in this snapshot, so the 36.8 percent home probability cannot be compared directly against a price. The obvious caveat is Charlton's draw habit and Norwich's desperation: a tight, scrappy 1-1 is exactly the kind of result this fixture has produced before, and the H2H record shows Norwich winning four of the last five meetings, including a 0-1 at The Valley in March 2026.