Portsmouth vs Millwall

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 11:30 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Fratton Park • 🌦 12.6°C, 25 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	78%	40.1%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	1X	69%	69.1%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	Yes	82%	50.3%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	80%	47.6%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	1-0	64%	7.9%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.4 exp.)	Over 9.5	67%	57.6%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Portsmouth 1.44 – 1.12 Millwall · expected total 2.55

🧠 Match Preview

Saturday's Championship clash at Fratton Park sees 16th-placed Portsmouth, on 11 points from 9 games, host 11th-placed Millwall, who have 14 points from 10. With both squads badly depleted by injuries, this is a fixture where the model leans toward the home side despite the table gap.

Portsmouth's recent form reads WLDDW, while Millwall arrive with LWDDL. The expected goals picture is interesting: the model gives Portsmouth 1.4372 and Millwall 1.1172, yet Millwall's recent xG of 2.32 dwarfs Portsmouth's 1.26, suggesting the visitors are creating more than their results show. History is tight too, with the last five meetings producing a 1-3 Millwall win, a 3-1 Portsmouth win, a 2-1 Millwall win and two 0-1 Millwall victories.

The headline tip is a Portsmouth home win at 40.1 percent with confidence of 78, though no bookmaker odds are quoted, so value is hard to pin precisely. The safer angle is the double chance on 1X at 69.1 percent. Both teams to score lands at 50.3 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 47.6 percent, and the correct score model favours 1-0 at 7.9 percent, with 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0 the leading scorelines. Corners look the most confident play: Over 9.5 at 57.6 percent against an expected 12.4.

The honest caveat is those injury lists, which are extensive on both sides and could distort form and xG signals. Treat the home win as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 15 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Portsmouth

Form (last 5)

WSheffield Utd (H) 3–2 · 14/10/2026 LSouthampton (A) 0–1 · 11/10/2026 DBlackburn (H) 2–2 · 19/09/2026 DCharlton (A) 0–0 · 12/09/2026 WCardiff (H) 2–0 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.40

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.26

xG against (recent avg)0.79

Elo strength rating1365

Players out13

Millwall

Form (last 5)

LSwansea (H) 0–1 · 13/10/2026 WPreston (A) 1–0 · 10/10/2026 DWest Ham (H) 2–2 · 19/09/2026 DMiddlesbrough (A) 2–2 · 15/09/2026 LBlackburn (A) 1–3 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.52

xG against (recent avg)1.03

Elo strength rating1619

Players out14

PortsmouthMillwall

WSheffield Utd (H) 3–2 · 14/10/2026 LSouthampton (A) 0–1 · 11/10/2026 DBlackburn (H) 2–2 · 19/09/2026 DCharlton (A) 0–0 · 12/09/2026 WCardiff (H) 2–0 · 05/09/2026

LSwansea (H) 0–1 · 13/10/2026 WPreston (A) 1–0 · 10/10/2026 DWest Ham (H) 2–2 · 19/09/2026 DMiddlesbrough (A) 2–2 · 15/09/2026 LBlackburn (A) 1–3 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.30

1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.40

1.60

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.26

1.52

xG against (recent avg)

0.79

1.03

Elo strength rating

1365

1619

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Portsmouth

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

2/6

Scored

3/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Millwall

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Championship

Portsmouth

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Millwall

2nd best clean sheets (4)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Portsmouth at home · Millwall away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Portsmouth (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L

W 2

D 1

L 2

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets1

Failed to score1

Millwall (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L

W 2

D 1

L 2

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets2

Failed to score0

Portsmouth (home)Millwall (away)

W 2

D 1

L 2

W 2

D 1

L 2

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.60

1.40

Goals conceded (avg)

1.80

2.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

7.9%

2–1

7.1%

2–0

6.4%

3–1

3.4%

3–0

3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Millwall 6 wins · 0 draws · Portsmouth 2 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 4 of 8

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
21 Feb 2026	Millwall	1–3	Portsmouth	Championship
22 Nov 2025	Portsmouth	3–1	Millwall	Championship
05 Apr 2025	Millwall	2–1	Portsmouth	Championship
28 Jan 2025	Portsmouth	0–1	Millwall	Championship
13 Aug 2024	Portsmouth	0–1	Millwall	League Cup
10 Aug 2021	Millwall	2–1	Portsmouth	League Cup
10 Apr 2012	Portsmouth	0–1	Millwall	Championship
26 Dec 2011	Millwall	1–0	Portsmouth	Championship

📈 Recent Form

Portsmouth

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
14/10	Sheffield Utd	Home	3–2	W
11/10	Southampton	Away	0–1	L
19/09	Blackburn	Home	2–2	D
12/09	Charlton	Away	0–0	D
05/09	Cardiff	Home	2–0	W

Millwall

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
13/10	Swansea	Home	0–1	L
10/10	Preston	Away	1–0	W
19/09	West Ham	Home	2–2	D
15/09	Middlesbrough	Away	2–2	D
12/09	Blackburn	Away	1–3	L

📊 Season Comparison — Championship

Portsmouth #16 · 11 pts — Millwall #11 · 14 pts

Portsmouth

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–4L

W 3

D 2

L 4

Played9

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets2

Failed to score3

Yellow cards11

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.26

xG against (avg)0.79

Corners for (avg)7.70

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Millwall

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–4L

W 4

D 2

L 4

Played10

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets4

Failed to score2

Yellow cards16

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.52

xG against (avg)1.03

Corners for (avg)2.20

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

PortsmouthMillwall

W 3

D 2

L 4

W 4

D 2

L 4

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

1.60

Goals conceded (avg)

1.40

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.26

1.52

xG against (avg)

0.79

1.03

Corners for (avg)

7.70

2.20

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Portsmouth

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Millwall

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Portsmouth

❌ K. Anderson — Injury
❌ J. Bursik — Injury
❌ J. Farrell — Groin Injury
❌ M. Kosznovszky — Knee Injury
❌ C. Ogilvie — Knee Injury
❌ M. Pack — Knee Injury
❌ F. Umeh — Hamstring Injury
❌ T. Waddingham — Ankle Injury
❌ H. Blair — Illness
❌ J. Murphy — Injury
❌ L. Brooke-Smith — Ankle Injury
❌ Marezi — Calf Injury
❌ C. Shaughnessy — Injury

Millwall

❌ T. Crama — Ankle Injury
❌ A. Doughty — Hamstring Injury
❌ M. Ivanovic — Hamstring Injury
❌ D. Mazou-Sacko — Calf Injury
❌ M. Servais — Hamstring Injury
❌ F. Azeez — Abdominal strain
❌ M. Luongo — Knee Injury
❌ R. Leonard — Hamstring Injury
❌ L. Cundle — Inactive
❌ L. Jensen — Inactive
❌ J. Coburn — Muscle Injury
❌ C. De Norre — Injury
❌ K. Lisbie — Inactive
❌ R. Esse — Ankle Injury

More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws