Predictions β†’ England Championship

Wrexham vs West Brom

Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ Racecourse Ground

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.38 β†’ 2.42 β–²2% 77% 38% 2.42 Pinnacle 41% -3 pp
Double Chance 12 70% 70.6% 1.33 William Hill 71.8% -1.2 pp
BTTS Yes 84% 54% 1.81 Marathonbet 52.5% +1.5 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.7% 2.17 Pinnacle 45.8% +3.9 pp
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.2% 9.50 Bet365 5.3% +1.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.1 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 52.9% 2.02 Betano 48.2% +4.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Wrexham 1.62 – 1.33 West Brom Β· expected total 2.95

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Wrexham host West Brom at the Racecourse Ground on Tuesday night sitting 15th in the Championship on 11 points from 9 games, while the visitors arrive 9th with 14 points. The gap is modest, but the stakes feel heavier for a home side that has won just once in its last five, a run of DWLDD that leaves little margin for error in front of their own crowd.

The model leans toward the hosts despite that form, giving Wrexham a 38 percent chance of victory at odds of 2.42. Recent underlying numbers are less flattering: Wrexham's recent expected goals sit at just 0.7, against West Brom's 0.92, even though the season-long attacking figures read 1.616 for the home side and 1.333 for the away side. West Brom's LLDWW is the better recent return, and their 9th-place standing reflects it. Wrexham's injury list is the real concern, with eight names including L. Cacace, S. Revan, B. Sheaf, J. Windass, G. Thomason, N. Broadhead, M. Cleworth and O. Rathbone, while West Brom are without T. Bany, M. Johnston, N. Galves and B. Pereira.

The headline tip is a home win, but the safer route is the double chance at 70.6 percent, which covers the draw and protects against Wrexham's habit of sharing points. Both teams to score lands at 54 percent and odds of 1.81, a fair reflection of two leaky defences. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.17 with a 49.7 percent model chance, and the correct-score model favours 2-1 at 9.14, with 1-0 at 7.35 and 2-0 at 6.85 close behind. Corners look likely to stay under 9.5, with an expected 9.1 and a 52.9 percent probability.

The honest caveat: Wrexham's recent expected goals of 0.7 sit well below their season average, so the 38 percent home-win figure may be generous. If the hosts' attacking output stays suppressed, the draw becomes the live danger.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Wrexham

Form (last 5)
DDerby (A) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026WSouthampton (H) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026LWest Ham (A) 0–6 Β· 11/09/2026DBurnley (H) 1–1 Β· 08/09/2026DSwansea (A) 0–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.61
xG against (recent avg)1.72
Elo strength rating1608
Players out8

West Brom

Form (last 5)
LBirmingham (H) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026LWolves (A) 0–1 Β· 20/09/2026DQPR (H) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026WDerby (A) 1–0 Β· 09/09/2026WWatford (H) 1–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.54
xG against (recent avg)0.58
Elo strength rating1311
Players out4
WrexhamWest Brom
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.61
0.54
xG against (recent avg)
1.72
0.58
Elo strength rating
1608
1311
Players out
8
4

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Wrexham

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

West Brom

Lost 2 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Wrexham

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

West Brom

3rd best defence (1.00 conceded/game) Worst Over 2.5 rate (0%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Wrexham at home Β· West Brom away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Wrexham (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

West Brom (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–2L
W 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Wrexham (home)West Brom (away)
W 1
D 2
L 1
W 2
L 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.30
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.2%
1–0
5.8%
2–0
5.4%
3–1
3.9%
3–0
2.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

West Brom 1 win Β· 1 draw Β· Wrexham 0 wins Β· avg 4.5 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 2

1
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 Apr 2026 West Brom 2–2 Wrexham Championship
16 Aug 2025 Wrexham 2–3 West Brom Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Wrexham

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Derby Away 1–1 D
19/09 Southampton Home 2–1 W
11/09 West Ham Away 0–6 L
08/09 Burnley Home 1–1 D
05/09 Swansea Away 0–0 D

West Brom

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Birmingham Home 0–1 L
20/09 Wolves Away 0–1 L
12/09 QPR Home 1–1 D
09/09 Derby Away 1–0 W
05/09 Watford Home 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Wrexham #15 Β· 11 pts β€”  West Brom #9 Β· 14 pts

Wrexham

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–2L
W 2
D 5
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards11
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.61
xG against (avg)1.72
Corners for (avg)3.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

West Brom

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–3L
W 4
D 2
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.54
xG against (avg)0.58
Corners for (avg)5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
WrexhamWest Brom
W 2
D 5
L 2
W 4
D 2
L 3
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.00
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
2
2
Yellow cards
11
19
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.61
0.54
xG against (avg)
1.72
0.58
Corners for (avg)
3.30
5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Wrexham

3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
1
scored conceded

West Brom

0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Wrexham

  • ❌ L. Cacace β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ S. Revan β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ B. Sheaf β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Windass β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ G. Thomason β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ N. Broadhead β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Cleworth β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ O. Rathbone β€” Ankle Injury

West Brom

  • ❌ T. Bany β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Johnston β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ N. Galves β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ B. Pereira β€” Red Card

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: James Bell