Predictions → England FA WSL

Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W

Next match: Sun, 01 Nov 2026 • 12:00 UTC+3 • Round 8 • Emirates Stadium • ☀️ 10.9°C, 10 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipOddsConfidenceProbabilityMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home —85% 59.8% — —
Double Chance 1X —75% 77.6% — —
BTTS Yes —82% 50.4% — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 —80% 46.4% — —
Correct Score 2-1 —64% 7.9% — —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11 exp.) Over 9.5 —64% 55.1% — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Arsenal W 1.97 – 1.08 Aston Villa W · expected total 3.05

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Arsenal W

Form (last 5)
DBirmingham City W (H) 1–1 · 17/10/2026LManchester City W (A) 2–4 · 04/10/2026DParis FC W (A) 2–2 · 30/09/2026LChelsea W (A) 0–1 · 27/09/2026WKøge W (H) 1–0 · 22/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.83
xG against (recent avg)0.25

Aston Villa W

Form (last 5)
WLiverpool W (H) 2–1 · 18/10/2026DCrystal Palace W (H) 1–1 · 04/10/2026WNewcastle United W (H) 3–1 · 30/09/2026LTottenham Hotspur W (A) 0–4 · 27/09/2026WNottingham Forest W (A) 2–0 · 23/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.17
xG against (recent avg)0.41
Arsenal WAston Villa W
DBirmingham City W (H) 1–1 · 17/10/2026LManchester City W (A) 2–4 · 04/10/2026DParis FC W (A) 2–2 · 30/09/2026LChelsea W (A) 0–1 · 27/09/2026WKøge W (H) 1–0 · 22/09/2026
WLiverpool W (H) 2–1 · 18/10/2026DCrystal Palace W (H) 1–1 · 04/10/2026WNewcastle United W (H) 3–1 · 30/09/2026LTottenham Hotspur W (A) 0–4 · 27/09/2026WNottingham Forest W (A) 2–0 · 23/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.80
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
2.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
0
xG for (recent avg)
0.83
0.17
xG against (recent avg)
0.25
0.41

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Arsenal W

Winless 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Aston Villa W

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — FA WSL

Arsenal W

3rd best BTTS rate (67%) 2nd best clean sheets (2)

Aston Villa W

3rd best BTTS rate (67%)

Rank among 14 FA WSL teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Arsenal W at home · Aston Villa W away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Arsenal W (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–0L
D 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

Aston Villa W (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–1L
D 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Arsenal W (home)Aston Villa W (away)
D 3
D 2
L 1
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
2.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.9%
2–0
7.3%
1–0
6.6%
3–1
5.2%
3–0
4.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Arsenal W 7 wins · 1 draw · Aston Villa W 2 wins · avg 3.4 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10

7
1
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
09 May 2026 Aston Villa W 0–3 Arsenal W FA WSL
18 Jan 2026 Arsenal W 2–0 Aston Villa W FA Women's Cup
27 Sep 2025 Arsenal W 1–1 Aston Villa W FA WSL
30 Apr 2025 Aston Villa W 5–2 Arsenal W FA WSL
08 Dec 2024 Arsenal W 4–0 Aston Villa W FA WSL
24 Mar 2024 Aston Villa W 1–3 Arsenal W FA WSL
06 Mar 2024 Arsenal W 4–0 Aston Villa W WSL Cup
15 Oct 2023 Arsenal W 2–1 Aston Villa W FA WSL
27 May 2023 Arsenal W 0–2 Aston Villa W FA WSL
26 Jan 2023 Arsenal W 3–0 Aston Villa W WSL Cup

📈 Recent Form

Arsenal W

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Birmingham City W Home 1–1 D
04/10 Manchester City W Away 2–4 L
30/09 Paris FC W Away 2–2 D
27/09 Chelsea W Away 0–1 L
22/09 Køge W Home 1–0 W

Aston Villa W

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/10 Liverpool W Home 2–1 W
04/10 Crystal Palace W Home 1–1 D
30/09 Newcastle United W Home 3–1 W
27/09 Tottenham Hotspur W Away 0–4 L
23/09 Nottingham Forest W Away 2–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — FA WSL

Arsenal W #8 · 6 pts —  Aston Villa W #10 · 6 pts

Arsenal W

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–2L
W 1
D 3
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards6
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.83
xG against (avg)0.25
Corners for (avg)8.70
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Aston Villa W

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–2L
W 1
D 3
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards6
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.17
xG against (avg)0.41
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Arsenal WAston Villa W
W 1
D 3
L 2
W 1
D 3
L 2
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
2.00
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
2
1
Yellow cards
6
6
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.83
0.17
xG against (avg)
0.25
0.41
Corners for (avg)
8.70
4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Arsenal W

0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Aston Villa W

2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: FA WSL predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws