Birmingham City W vs Charlton Athletic W

Sunday's FA WSL regular-season round seven fixture at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park pits 13th-placed Birmingham City W against a Charlton Athletic W side sitting 14th and still searching for a first point after six games. With Birmingham on 3 points from 6 played and Charlton on 0, this is a scrap between two teams desperate to stop the slide.

The model leans heavily on recent form. Birmingham arrive on a DLLDL run, Charlton on five straight defeats, LLLLL. The expected-goals numbers tell the same story: Birmingham's recent xG sits at 0.83 against Charlton's 0.34, and the full-match projections of 1.1907 for the hosts and 0.6189 for the visitors point to a low-scoring, controlled home performance. No injuries are listed on either side, so there is no selection excuse to factor in. Head-to-head is mixed and low on goals: a 0-2 Birmingham win in May 2026, a 0-1 Charlton win in November 2025, then 1-1, 0-0 and 3-1 further back.

The headline tip is a Home win at 62 percent model probability against odds of 1.59, with double chance 1X at 79 percent as the safer route. Both teams to score No is priced at 2.05 on a 52.3 percent read, and Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 on 50.1 percent. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 15.5 percent, with 2-0 next at 11.61. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 52.9 percent against an expected 9.1.

The honest caveat: Birmingham's own form is poor (DLLDL), and several of these edges are thin — Under 2.5 and BTTS No sit barely above a coin flip, so treat the goals markets as marginal and the home win as the cleaner play.