Charlton Athletic W vs Chelsea W

Charlton Athletic W host Chelsea W at The Valley on Sunday with the two clubs at opposite ends of the FA WSL table. Charlton sit 14th with 0 points from 6 games; Chelsea are 2nd on 16 points from 6. The stakes are simple: Chelsea need to keep pace at the top, while Charlton are still searching for a first point.

The model sees a mismatch. Charlton's last five read LLLLL, and their recent expected goals sit at just 0.34 per game against a season figure of 0.9478. Chelsea arrive on WWDWW with recent xG of 2.3 and a season mark of 2.4354. The head-to-head record reinforces it: Chelsea won 4-0 in January 2025 and 0-4 at The Valley in January 2020. No injuries are listed on either side.

The headline tip is an away win at 75.9 percent with confidence of 91. Double chance X2 is priced at 85.1 percent, the safer route if you want to avoid a shock. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.5 percent, and Under 2.5 goals at 39.7 percent — though that under number is low enough to treat with suspicion given Chelsea's scoring rate. The correct-score model leans 0-2 at 8.1 percent, with 1-2, 0-3, 1-3 and 0-1 close behind. Corners are tipped Under 9.5 at 53.7 percent against an expected 8.7.

Value hunting is limited because no bookmaker odds are quoted in the snapshot, so you cannot measure the model's probabilities against the market. The honest caveat: a 75.9 percent away win is short-priced by nature, and the Under 2.5 call at 39.7 percent is the least convincing number here — Chelsea's 2.4354 expected goals argue against a low-scoring afternoon.