Crystal Palace W vs Chelsea W

Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 • 12:00 UTC+3 • Round 7 • VBS Community Stadium • 🌤 12.4°C, 28 km/h mostly clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

BTTS — Yes

Model 47.6% · Market best price ≈ 42% · Edge +7.9 pp

Best odds 2.38 · Bet365 Marathonbet 2.32William Hill 2.30

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Odds	Confidence	Probability	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away	Betano1.09	92%	89.5%	91.4%	-1.9 pp
Double Chance	X2	William Hill1.02	75%	89.5%	97.1%	-7.6 pp
BTTS	Yes	Bet3652.38	80%	47.6%	39.7%	+7.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	Bet3651.25	83%	53.9%	75%	-21.1 pp
Correct Score	1-2	Bet36515.00	63%	7.6%	3.1%	+4.5 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.2 exp.)	Under 9.5	1xBet2.19	61%	52.6%	42.1%	+10.5 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Crystal Palace W 1.25 – 2.25 Chelsea W · expected total 3.51

🧠 Match Preview

Crystal Palace W host Chelsea W at VBS Community Stadium on Sunday with the visitors sitting second on 16 points from six games while the hosts are 11th on 6 points from the same number of matches. The stakes are clear: Chelsea need to keep pace at the top, Palace are chasing breathing room in mid-table.

The model sees a lopsided contest. Chelsea arrive on a WWDWW run, Palace on LDWDW. The expected-goals split is 1.2528 for Palace against 2.2522 for Chelsea, and recent form xG reads 0.97 home versus 2.3 away, reinforcing the gap. The head-to-head record is brutal for the hosts: 5-0, 4-0, 1-0, 0-7 and 1-0 across the last five meetings, all Chelsea wins. No injuries are listed on either side.

The main tip is an away win at 89.5 percent probability with 92 confidence, priced at 1.09, so the value is thin and the double chance X2 carries the same 89.5 percent. Over 2.5 goals is rated 53.9 percent at 1.25, while both teams to score sits at 47.6 percent and offers the more interesting 2.38. The top correct score is 1-2 at 9.63 percent, with 0-2 at 7.69 and 1-3 at 7.23. Corners lean under 9.5, expected 9.2 at 52.6 percent.

The honest caveat: the away price leaves almost no margin, and the BTTS and over numbers are close to coin-flips, so treat the short odds as a banker rather than a value bet.

Updated 21 Oct 2026, 20:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Crystal Palace W

Form (last 5)

LWest Ham W (H) 0–1 · 18/10/2026DAston Villa W (A) 1–1 · 04/10/2026WCharlton Athletic W (H) 3–0 · 30/09/2026DBirmingham City W (A) 3–3 · 27/09/2026WWatford W (H) 1–0 · 23/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)0.80

Goals conceded (season avg)2.00

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.40

xG against (recent avg)0.62

Chelsea W

Form (last 5)

WTottenham Hotspur W (H) 6–2 · 18/10/2026WWest Ham W (A) 3–0 · 04/10/2026DLyon W (A) 0–0 · 30/09/2026WArsenal W (H) 1–0 · 27/09/2026WAustria Wien W (H) 1–0 · 23/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)3.00

Goals conceded (season avg)0.50

Win streak (best this season)0

xG for (recent avg)0.68

xG against (recent avg)0.35

Crystal Palace WChelsea W

LWest Ham W (H) 0–1 · 18/10/2026DAston Villa W (A) 1–1 · 04/10/2026WCharlton Athletic W (H) 3–0 · 30/09/2026DBirmingham City W (A) 3–3 · 27/09/2026WWatford W (H) 1–0 · 23/09/2026

WTottenham Hotspur W (H) 6–2 · 18/10/2026WWest Ham W (A) 3–0 · 04/10/2026DLyon W (A) 0–0 · 30/09/2026WArsenal W (H) 1–0 · 27/09/2026WAustria Wien W (H) 1–0 · 23/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

0.80

3.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.00

0.50

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.40

0.68

xG against (recent avg)

0.62

0.35

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Crystal Palace W

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Chelsea W

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 10

BTTS

1/6

Over 2.5

2/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

5/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — FA WSL

Crystal Palace W

2nd best clean sheets (2)

Chelsea W

2nd best attack (3.00 goals/game) Best defence (0.50 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (17%) Best clean sheets (4)

Rank among 14 FA WSL teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Crystal Palace W at home · Chelsea W away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Crystal Palace W (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–2L

W 1

L 2

Played3

Goals scored (avg)0.30

Goals conceded (avg)2.70

Clean sheets1

Failed to score2

Chelsea W (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L

W 2

Played2

Goals scored (avg)4.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.00

Clean sheets2

Failed to score0

Crystal Palace W (home)Chelsea W (away)

W 1

L 2

W 2

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.30

4.00

Goals conceded (avg)

2.70

0.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2

7.6%

0–2

6.1%

1–3

5.7%

0–1

4.7%

0–3

4.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Chelsea W 5 wins · 0 draws · Crystal Palace W 0 wins · avg 3.6 goals · BTTS in 0 of 5

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
17 Jan 2026	Chelsea W	5–0	Crystal Palace W	FA Women's Cup
23 Apr 2025	Chelsea W	4–0	Crystal Palace W	FA WSL
09 Mar 2025	Chelsea W	1–0	Crystal Palace W	FA Women's Cup
27 Sep 2024	Crystal Palace W	0–7	Chelsea W	FA WSL
11 Feb 2024	Chelsea W	1–0	Crystal Palace W	FA Women's Cup

📈 Recent Form

Crystal Palace W

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
18/10	West Ham W	Home	0–1	L
04/10	Aston Villa W	Away	1–1	D
30/09	Charlton Athletic W	Home	3–0	W
27/09	Birmingham City W	Away	3–3	D
23/09	Watford W	Home	1–0	W

Chelsea W

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
18/10	Tottenham Hotspur W	Home	6–2	W
04/10	West Ham W	Away	3–0	W
30/09	Lyon W	Away	0–0	D
27/09	Arsenal W	Home	1–0	W
23/09	Austria Wien W	Home	1–0	W

📊 Season Comparison — FA WSL

Crystal Palace W #11 · 6 pts — Chelsea W #2 · 16 pts

Crystal Palace W

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–2L

W 1

D 3

L 2

Played6

Goals scored (avg)0.80

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets2

Failed to score3

Yellow cards13

Red cards1

xG for (avg)0.40

xG against (avg)0.62

Corners for (avg)4.00

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Chelsea W

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–1D–0L

W 5

D 1

Played6

Goals scored (avg)3.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.50

Clean sheets4

Failed to score0

Yellow cards6

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.68

xG against (avg)0.35

Corners for (avg)5.40

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Crystal Palace WChelsea W

W 1

D 3

L 2

W 5

D 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.80

3.00

Goals conceded (avg)

2.00

0.50

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.40

0.68

xG against (avg)

0.62

0.35

Corners for (avg)

4.00

5.40

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Crystal Palace W

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Chelsea W

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: FA WSL predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws