Predictions → England League One

Notts County vs Stockport County

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 13 • Meadow Lane • 🌧 10.2°C, 31 km/h, 2.1mm rain

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipOddsConfidenceProbabilityMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 1.55 → 1.63 ▲5% 1xBet1.6385% 59.4% 62.2% -2.8 pp
Double Chance 12 Bet3651.2571% 71.5% 78% -6.5 pp
BTTS Yes Bet3651.9182% 50.3% 50.3% 0 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Pinnacle1.8181% 49.7% 53.1% -3.4 pp
Correct Score 1-2 Bet3658.5062% 7.1% 5.9% +1.2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 1xBet1.9062% 53.1% 49.6% +3.5 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Notts County 1.42 – 1.72 Stockport County · expected total 3.14

🧠 Match Preview

Notts County host Stockport County at Meadow Lane on Saturday with the two clubs at opposite ends of the League One table. The visitors sit top on 22 points from 11 games, while Notts County are 18th with 10 points from 10, so this is a fixture where the stakes tilt heavily toward the away side's promotion push.

The model leans firmly on that gap. Stockport arrive on a five-match winning run (WWWWW), against a home side that has alternated results (WLWLW). The expected-goals numbers back the form line: Stockport's recent attacking output sits at 1.82, well clear of Notts County's 0.69, and the goal expectancy splits 1.7185 to 1.4233 in the visitors' favour. No injuries are flagged on either side, so there is no obvious disruption to the picture. History is mixed but recent meetings have favoured Stockport, including a 2-5 win at Meadow Lane in April 2024.

The headline tip is an away win at 59.4 percent model probability, priced at 1.63. The double chance covering a draw or Stockport win lands at 71.5 percent and is the safer route. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 50.3 percent (1.91), while over 2.5 goals sits at 49.7 percent (1.84) — both marginal, so value is thin there. The correct-score model points to 1-2 at 9.1 percent. Corners offer a modest edge, with over 9.5 at 53.1 percent against an expected 10.

The honest caveat: a 59.4 percent probability is not dominance, and Notts County's home record has flashes of resistance. Treat the away win as the value play, but the double chance is the more disciplined bet.

Updated 21 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Notts County

Form (last 5)
WSheffield Wednesday (H) 2–0 · 20/10/2026LWycombe (A) 0–2 · 17/10/2026WNottingham Forest U21 (H) 5–1 · 13/10/2026LOxford United (H) 1–2 · 10/10/2026WGrimsby (H) 2–1 · 22/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.39
xG against (recent avg)0.65
Elo strength rating1364

Stockport County

Form (last 5)
WDoncaster (A) 2–0 · 20/10/2026WBromley (H) 1–0 · 17/10/2026WBarnsley (H) 3–1 · 10/10/2026WShrewsbury (A) 2–0 · 06/10/2026WPeterborough (H) 1–0 · 26/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.04
xG against (recent avg)0.70
Elo strength rating1716
Notts CountyStockport County
WSheffield Wednesday (H) 2–0 · 20/10/2026LWycombe (A) 0–2 · 17/10/2026WNottingham Forest U21 (H) 5–1 · 13/10/2026LOxford United (H) 1–2 · 10/10/2026WGrimsby (H) 2–1 · 22/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.39
1.04
xG against (recent avg)
0.65
0.70
Elo strength rating
1364
1716

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Notts County

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Stockport County

Won 5 in a row Unbeaten 6
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
5/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — League One

Notts County

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Stockport County

2nd best attack (2.10 goals/game) 3rd best defence (1.00 conceded/game) 2nd worst BTTS rate (17%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%) 2nd best clean sheets (5)

Rank among 24 League One teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Notts County at home · Stockport County away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Notts County (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

Stockport County (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2
Notts County (home)Stockport County (away)
W 2
D 1
L 2
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.60
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
1
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
7.1%
0–2
5%
0–1
5%
1–3
4.1%
2–3
2.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Notts County 3 wins · 2 draws · Stockport County 3 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 5 of 8

3
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
16 Apr 2024 Notts County 2–5 Stockport County League Two
22 Dec 2023 Stockport County 2–1 Notts County League Two
15 Mar 2022 Stockport County 3–0 Notts County National League
23 Oct 2021 Notts County 2–1 Stockport County National League
23 Feb 2021 Stockport County 0–0 Notts County National League
16 Jan 2021 Stockport County 1–2 Notts County FA Trophy
15 Dec 2020 Notts County 1–0 Stockport County National League
06 Aug 2019 Notts County 1–1 Stockport County National League

📈 Recent Form

Notts County

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/10 Sheffield Wednesday Home 2–0 W
17/10 Wycombe Away 0–2 L
13/10 Nottingham Forest U21 Home 5–1 W
10/10 Oxford United Home 1–2 L
22/09 Grimsby Home 2–1 W

Stockport County

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/10 Doncaster Away 2–0 W
17/10 Bromley Home 1–0 W
10/10 Barnsley Home 3–1 W
06/10 Shrewsbury Away 2–0 W
26/09 Peterborough Home 1–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — League One

Notts County #18 · 10 pts —  Stockport County #1 · 22 pts

Notts County

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–4L
W 2
D 4
L 4
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards26
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.39
xG against (avg)0.65
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Stockport County

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–1D–3L
W 7
D 1
L 3
Played11
Goals scored (avg)2.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets5
Failed to score2
Yellow cards11
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.04
xG against (avg)0.70
Corners for (avg)7.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
Notts CountyStockport County
W 2
D 4
L 4
W 7
D 1
L 3
Played
10
11
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
2.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.00
Clean sheets
1
5
Failed to score
3
2
Yellow cards
26
11
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.39
1.04
xG against (avg)
0.65
0.70
Corners for (avg)
3.20
7.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Notts County

1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
5
scored conceded

Stockport County

2
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
3
46-60
6
61-75
4
2
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League One predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws