Accrington ST vs Gillingham
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • The Wham Stadium • 🌤 9.9°C, 9 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.4 → 2.37 ▼1% | 76% | 36% | 2.37 | Dafabet | 41.7% | -5.7 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 69% | 68.3% | 1.30 | William Hill | 75.3% | -7 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 50% | 1.72 | Betano | 56.1% | -6.1 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 47.7% | 1.88 | Betano | 50.9% | -3.2 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 62% | 6.7% | 9.00 | Bet365 | 5.6% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 57% | 26.6% | 3.82 | Pinnacle | 24.7% | +1.9 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.4 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 64% | 54.7% | 1.67 | Bet365 | 55.7% | -1 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Accrington ST 1.32 – 1.28 Gillingham · expected total 2.60
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
Accrington arrive on a DWDDL run, Gillingham on WDLLW, so neither side is carrying real momentum. The goal data is where this gets interesting: Accrington's recent expected goals sit at just 0.86, while Gillingham's recent figure is 1.95, yet the match-level estimates are far closer, with the home side at 1.3179 and the away side at 1.2774. Both squads report no injuries, so there are no selection excuses on either side. The head-to-head leans Gillingham's way, including a 2-0 win in April 2026 and a 1-2 victory at Accrington in October 2024, though two 1-1 draws in between show how tight these meetings often are.
The model's headline pick is a home win at 36 percent, priced at 2.37, with the draw at 26.6 percent and the double chance covering home or draw at 68.3 percent. Both teams to score is a coin-flip at 50 percent and 1.72, while over 2.5 goals sits at 47.7 percent and 1.88. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 8.59 percent, followed by 2-1 at 8.28. Corners look low, with an expected 8.4 and under 9.5 at 54.7 percent.
The honest caveat: a 36 percent home win is not a strong edge, and Gillingham's recent expected goals of 1.95 suggest the away side could easily punish that price.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Accrington ST
Gillingham
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Accrington ST
Gillingham
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — League Two
Accrington ST
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Gillingham
Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Accrington ST at home · Gillingham away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Accrington ST (home)
Gillingham (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Accrington ST 2 wins · 3 draws · Gillingham 5 wins · avg 1.9 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr 2026 | Gillingham | 2–0 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 02 Aug 2025 | Accrington ST | 1–1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Accrington ST | 1–1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 12 Oct 2024 | Gillingham | 1–2 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Accrington ST | 1–2 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Gillingham | 1–0 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 26 Mar 2022 | Accrington ST | 1–2 | Gillingham | League One |
| 30 Oct 2021 | Gillingham | 0–0 | Accrington ST | League One |
| 16 Jan 2021 | Accrington ST | 0–1 | Gillingham | League One |
| 15 Dec 2020 | Gillingham | 0–2 | Accrington ST | League One |
📈 Recent Form
Accrington ST
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Oldham | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 03/10 | Cheltenham | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 26/09 | Swindon Town | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 19/09 | Newport County | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 12/09 | Barnet | Away | 1–2 | L |
Gillingham
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Rotherham | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 03/10 | Newport County | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | York | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 22/09 | Cambridge United | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 19/09 | Bristol Rovers | Home | 3–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — League Two
Accrington ST #15 · 11 pts — Gillingham #4 · 16 pts
Accrington ST
Gillingham
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Accrington ST
Gillingham
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws