Port Vale vs Accrington ST
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • Round 15 • Vale Park • ☁️ 6.3°C, 20 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 45.8% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 75.7% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 66.7% · No 33.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 65.5% · Under 34.5% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9.1% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 60.5% · Under 39.5% | — |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Port Vale · Home
Port Vale have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, including a 4-2 home win over Rochdale and a 1-0 home victory against Chesterfield. Their recent_xg_for of 2.03 is the higher of the two sides, and the model_expected_goals of 1.88 supports a home attacking edge.
Accrington ST · Away
Accrington ST are unbeaten in five, with a 5-0 away win at Rochdale and a 0-0 draw at Oldham. Their recent_xg_for of 1.76 is solid, but the model_expected_goals of 1.5 is lower than Port Vale's.
Port Vale's Home Scoring Edge
The latest H2H was a 0-2 Port Vale away win, and the prior meeting at Port Vale finished 2-1 in their favour. Port Vale have scored in four of their last five, with three home wins in that run, while Accrington ST have drawn three of five. Port Vale's recent_xg_for of 2.03 and model_expected_goals of 1.88 point to the stronger attacking output here. The evidence supports Port Vale win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Port Vale 1.88 – 1.50 Accrington ST · expected total 3.38
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Port Vale
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Port Vale
Accrington ST
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: League Two
Port Vale
Accrington ST
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Port Vale at home · Accrington ST away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Port Vale (home)
Accrington ST (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Accrington ST 4 wins · 2 draws · Port Vale 4 wins · avg 3.3 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct 2025 | Accrington ST | 0–2 | Port Vale | EFL Trophy |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Port Vale | 2–1 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Accrington ST | 2–2 | Port Vale | League Two |
| 07 Apr 2023 | Accrington ST | 3–0 | Port Vale | League One |
| 07 Feb 2023 | Port Vale | 1–1 | Accrington ST | League One |
| 06 Nov 2021 | Port Vale | 5–1 | Accrington ST | FA Cup |
| 20 Jan 2018 | Accrington ST | 3–2 | Port Vale | League Two |
| 26 Sep 2017 | Port Vale | 1–2 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 02 Feb 2013 | Port Vale | 3–0 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 21 Aug 2012 | Accrington ST | 2–0 | Port Vale | League Two |
📈 Recent Form
Port Vale
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Rochdale | Home | 4–2 | W |
| 27/10 | Manchester City U21 | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 24/10 | York | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 20/10 | Gillingham | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Chesterfield | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Grimsby | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 06/10 | Mansfield Town | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Walsall | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Exeter City | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Salford City | Away | 0–1 | L |
Accrington ST
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Northampton | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 24/10 | Rochdale | Away | 5–0 | W |
| 20/10 | York | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Gillingham | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 10/10 | Oldham | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 03/10 | Cheltenham | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 26/09 | Swindon Town | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 19/09 | Newport County | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 12/09 | Barnet | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 05/09 | Crawley Town | Home | 3–2 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: League Two
Port Vale #18 · 15 pts · Accrington ST #9 · 19 pts
Port Vale
Accrington ST
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Port Vale
Accrington ST
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws