Oldham vs Cheltenham

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Boundary Park • ⛅ 10.6°C, 11 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home 1.83 → 1.72 ▼6%	84%	56.1%	1.72	Pinnacle	57.3%	-1.2 pp
Double Chance	1X	71%	71.9%	1.20	William Hill	80.6%	-8.7 pp
BTTS	Yes	81%	49.5%	1.67	Bet365	57.4%	-7.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	80%	47.7%	2.15	Bet365	44.3%	+3.4 pp
Correct Score	1-0	64%	7.8%	9.00	Bet365	5.4%	+2.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.)	Over 9.5	63%	54.2%	1.85	Bet365	51.3%	+2.9 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Oldham 1.56 – 1.09 Cheltenham · expected total 2.65

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Oldham host Cheltenham at Boundary Park on Saturday with the two sides separated by seven points and contrasting league positions. The hosts sit 21st on 8 points from 9 games, while Cheltenham arrive 8th with 15 points from 10, so the visitors carry the stronger table position into this League Two round 11 fixture.

The model, however, leans toward the home side. Oldham's recent expected goals output of 2.73 is notably higher than Cheltenham's 1.7, and the goal expectancy split reads 1.5618 for the hosts against 1.0854 for the away side. Form is mixed on both sides: Oldham's last five reads DLWLL, Cheltenham's LLWDW. There are no listed injuries for either team, and the head-to-head record is genuinely split, with Oldham winning 2-1 in January 2026 and 2-1 in November 2020, while Cheltenham took a 3-0 win in September 2025.

The headline tip is a home win at 56.1 percent, priced at 1.72, with confidence at 84. Double chance 1X lands at 71.9 percent. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 49.5 percent (odds 1.67), and Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 47.7 percent with odds of 2.15 — that price looks the most interesting against a modest goal expectancy. The correct-score model points to 1-0 at 7.8 percent, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind. Corners lean Over 9.5 at 54.2 percent, with an expected 10.5.

The honest caveat: Oldham's league position and DLWLL form sit awkwardly against a 56.1 percent home probability, so the 1.72 price carries real risk if the table tells the truer story.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Oldham

Form (last 5)

DAccrington ST (H) 0–0 · 10/10/2026 LSalford City (H) 1–4 · 26/09/2026WFleetwood Town (H) 1–0 · 22/09/2026LRochdale (A) 0–2 · 19/09/2026 LChesterfield (H) 1–2 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.40

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.27

xG against (recent avg)0.84

Elo strength rating1484

Cheltenham

Form (last 5)

LSalford City (H) 0–2 · 10/10/2026 LAccrington ST (A) 0–2 · 03/10/2026 WChesterfield (H) 2–1 · 26/09/2026 DColchester (A) 1–1 · 19/09/2026 WCrawley Town (A) 3–1 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.73

xG against (recent avg)0.40

Elo strength rating1413

OldhamCheltenham

DAccrington ST (H) 0–0 · 10/10/2026 LSalford City (H) 1–4 · 26/09/2026WFleetwood Town (H) 1–0 · 22/09/2026LRochdale (A) 0–2 · 19/09/2026 LChesterfield (H) 1–2 · 12/09/2026

LSalford City (H) 0–2 · 10/10/2026 LAccrington ST (A) 0–2 · 03/10/2026 WChesterfield (H) 2–1 · 26/09/2026 DColchester (A) 1–1 · 19/09/2026 WCrawley Town (A) 3–1 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.00

1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.40

1.60

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.27

0.73

xG against (recent avg)

0.84

0.40

Elo strength rating

1484

1413

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Oldham

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

2/6

Scored

3/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Cheltenham

Lost 2 in a row

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Oldham at home · Cheltenham away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Oldham (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L

W 2

D 1

L 2

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets3

Failed to score1

Cheltenham (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–2L

W 1

D 2

L 2

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets0

Failed to score1

Oldham (home)Cheltenham (away)

W 2

D 1

L 2

W 1

D 2

L 2

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.40

Goals conceded (avg)

1.20

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

7.8%

2–1

7.4%

2–0

6.8%

3–1

3.9%

3–0

3.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Cheltenham 2 wins · 2 draws · Oldham 4 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 8

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
17 Jan 2026	Oldham	2–1	Cheltenham	League Two
20 Sep 2025	Cheltenham	0–3	Oldham	League Two
26 Jan 2021	Cheltenham	2–0	Oldham	League Two
03 Nov 2020	Oldham	2–1	Cheltenham	League Two
04 Jan 2020	Cheltenham	3–0	Oldham	League Two
05 Oct 2019	Oldham	1–1	Cheltenham	League Two
19 Apr 2019	Cheltenham	0–0	Oldham	League Two
23 Oct 2018	Oldham	2–0	Cheltenham	League Two

📈 Recent Form

Oldham

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Accrington ST	Home	0–0	D
26/09	Salford City	Home	1–4	L
22/09	Fleetwood Town	Home	1–0	W
19/09	Rochdale	Away	0–2	L
12/09	Chesterfield	Home	1–2	L

Cheltenham

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Salford City	Home	0–2	L
03/10	Accrington ST	Away	0–2	L
26/09	Chesterfield	Home	2–1	W
19/09	Colchester	Away	1–1	D
12/09	Crawley Town	Away	3–1	W

📊 Season Comparison — League Two

Oldham #21 · 8 pts — Cheltenham #8 · 15 pts

Oldham

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–5L

W 2

D 2

L 5

Played9

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets3

Failed to score3

Yellow cards14

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.27

xG against (avg)0.84

Corners for (avg)6.50

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Cheltenham

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–3L

W 4

D 3

L 3

Played10

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Yellow cards25

Red cards2

xG for (avg)0.73

xG against (avg)0.40

Corners for (avg)4.30

Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

OldhamCheltenham

W 2

D 2

L 5

W 4

D 3

L 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.00

1.60

Goals conceded (avg)

1.40

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.27

0.73

xG against (avg)

0.84

0.40

Corners for (avg)

6.50

4.30

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/0

2/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Oldham

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Cheltenham

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws