Predictions → England League Two

Colchester vs Exeter City

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • ☁️ 11.9°C, 19 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.1 → 2.07 ▼1% 79% 43.8% 2.07 Betano 47.5% -3.7 pp
Double Chance 1X 69% 68.3% 1.36 Bet365 72.5% -4.2 pp
BTTS Yes 80% 48.1% 1.75 William Hill 54.5% -6.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 52.9% 1.95 Bet365 48.7% +4.2 pp
Correct Score 1-0 64% 8.3% 8.00 Bet365 6.2% +2.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 53.8% 1.87 Betano 50.1% +3.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Colchester 1.36 – 1.10 Exeter City · expected total 2.45

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Colchester host Exeter City in League Two's eleventh round on Saturday, with both sides stuck in the wrong half and desperate for a spark. The hosts sit 19th on 10 points from 9 games, while Exeter are 14th on 12 points from 10, so this is a fixture where three points matter more than style.

The model leans home. Colchester's recent expected goals of 1.22 edge Exeter's 0.7, and the goal projections of 1.3559 for the hosts against 1.0952 for the visitors point to a tight, low-scoring affair. Form tells a similar story: Colchester have drawn three of their last five (LDLDD), while Exeter arrive with WWLDL. No injuries are listed for either side, so both managers have full squads to choose from.

The headline tip is a Colchester win at 43.8 percent, priced at 2.07, with a 79 confidence rating. Double chance 1X lands at 68.3 percent, the safer route. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 52.9 percent and 1.95, which fits the modest goal projections. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 48.1 percent, so the 1.75 on offer looks short. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 10.41 percent, followed by 2-1 at 8.68 and 2-0 at 7.93. Corners are expected to stay low, with 8.7 predicted and Under 9.5 at 53.8 percent.

The honest caveat: Colchester's form is winless in five, and the model's 43.8 percent home probability is far from dominant. If Exeter tighten up, the draw becomes a live threat.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Colchester

Form (last 5)
LNewport County (A) 0–1 · 10/10/2026DShrewsbury (A) 2–2 · 26/09/2026LPeterborough (A) 1–3 · 22/09/2026DCheltenham (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026DCrewe (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.42
xG against (recent avg)0.50
Elo strength rating1455

Exeter City

Form (last 5)
WShrewsbury (A) 1–0 · 10/10/2026WRotherham (H) 1–0 · 03/10/2026LBristol Rovers (A) 0–1 · 26/09/2026DTranmere (H) 0–0 · 19/09/2026LPort Vale (A) 0–1 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.30
xG against (recent avg)0.65
Elo strength rating1363
ColchesterExeter City
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
0.60
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.42
0.30
xG against (recent avg)
0.50
0.65
Elo strength rating
1455
1363

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Colchester

Winless 7
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Exeter City

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
0/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — League Two

Colchester

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Exeter City

Best defence (0.60 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (0%) Worst Over 2.5 rate (0%) Best clean sheets (5)

Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Colchester at home · Exeter City away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Colchester (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–0L
W 2
D 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Exeter City (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–4L
W 1
L 4
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Colchester (home)Exeter City (away)
W 2
D 2
W 1
L 4
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
0.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.3%
2–1
6.9%
2–0
6.3%
3–1
3.1%
3–0
2.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Colchester 2 wins · 3 draws · Exeter City 4 wins · avg 2.9 goals · BTTS in 5 of 9

2
3
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
15 Apr 2022 Exeter City 2–0 Colchester League Two
23 Nov 2021 Colchester 3–1 Exeter City League Two
23 Feb 2021 Colchester 1–2 Exeter City League Two
24 Nov 2020 Exeter City 6–1 Colchester League Two
18 Jun 2020 Colchester 1–0 Exeter City League Two
25 Jan 2020 Exeter City 0–0 Colchester League Two
29 Dec 2019 Colchester 2–2 Exeter City League Two
16 Mar 2019 Exeter City 3–0 Colchester League Two
24 Nov 2018 Colchester 1–1 Exeter City League Two

📈 Recent Form

Colchester

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Newport County Away 0–1 L
26/09 Shrewsbury Away 2–2 D
22/09 Peterborough Away 1–3 L
19/09 Cheltenham Home 1–1 D
12/09 Crewe Home 1–1 D

Exeter City

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Shrewsbury Away 1–0 W
03/10 Rotherham Home 1–0 W
26/09 Bristol Rovers Away 0–1 L
19/09 Tranmere Home 0–0 D
12/09 Port Vale Away 0–1 L

📊 Season Comparison — League Two

Colchester #19 · 10 pts —  Exeter City #14 · 12 pts

Colchester

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–3L
W 2
D 4
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Yellow cards10
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.42
xG against (avg)0.50
Corners for (avg)2.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Exeter City

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–4L
W 3
D 3
L 4
Played10
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets5
Failed to score5
Yellow cards17
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.30
xG against (avg)0.65
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
ColchesterExeter City
W 2
D 4
L 3
W 3
D 3
L 4
Played
9
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
0.60
Clean sheets
1
5
Failed to score
2
5
Yellow cards
10
17
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
0.42
0.30
xG against (avg)
0.50
0.65
Corners for (avg)
2.90
4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/1
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Colchester

0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
8
76-90
2
scored conceded

Exeter City

1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws