Predictions → England League Two

Grimsby vs Northampton

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Blundell Park • ⛅ 12.7°C, 20 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 — Under 2.5
Model 54.7% · Market best price ≈ 51.3% · Edge +6.0 pp
Best odds 1.95 Bet365 1.95Pinnacle 1.95SBO 1.95
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 2.2% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.73 → 1.75 ▲1% 85% 59.8% 1.75 William Hill 57% +2.8 pp
Double Chance 1X 79% 82.5% 1.23 Betano 81% +1.5 pp
BTTS No 82% 51.4% 1.96 1xBet 47.9% +3.5 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 54.7% 1.95 Bet365 48.7% +6 pp
Correct Score 1-0 75% 14.5% 7.50 Bet365 6.7% +7.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.1 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53% 2.42 Betano 38.9% +14.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Grimsby 1.46 – 0.61 Northampton · expected total 2.07

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Grimsby host Northampton at Blundell Park on Saturday with the two clubs at very different ends of the early League Two table. Grimsby sit 11th on 13 points from 10 games, while Northampton are 23rd with just 7 points from 8, so the home side have clear incentive to press their advantage.

The model leans heavily on recent attacking output. Grimsby's recent expected goals figure of 2.77 dwarfs Northampton's 0.8, and the goal expectations for this match are set at 1.4555 for the home side against just 0.6147 for the visitors. Form reads LLLLW for Grimsby and DLLLW for Northampton, so neither arrives in convincing rhythm, though the underlying numbers favour the hosts. No injuries are listed for either squad, and the head-to-head is mixed, with Grimsby winning 2-1 at Northampton in February 2023 and drawing 1-1 at home in August 2022.

The headline tip is a home win at 59.8 percent, priced at 1.75, with double chance 1X at 82.5 percent looking the safer route. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 54.7 percent (odds 1.95), and BTTS No at 51.4 percent (1.96) fits Northampton's blunt recent xG. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 14.5 percent, with 2-0 next at 13.37. Corners are expected at 9.1, giving Under 9.5 a 53 percent lean.

The honest caveat: Grimsby's own form is four defeats in five, so backing them at 1.75 carries real risk if that slump continues.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Grimsby

Form (last 5)
LPort Vale (A) 0–1 · 10/10/2026LShrewsbury (H) 1–2 · 03/10/2026LNewport County (A) 1–2 · 26/09/2026LNotts County (A) 1–2 · 22/09/2026WCrawley Town (H) 2–0 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.95
xG against (recent avg)0.22
Elo strength rating1548

Northampton

Form (last 5)
DYork (A) 1–1 · 10/10/2026LCambridge United (A) 1–2 · 06/10/2026LRotherham (H) 0–1 · 19/09/2026LShrewsbury (A) 0–2 · 12/09/2026WNewport County (H) 1–0 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.50
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.68
xG against (recent avg)0.96
Elo strength rating1329
GrimsbyNorthampton
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
0.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.10
0.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.95
0.68
xG against (recent avg)
0.22
0.96
Elo strength rating
1548
1329

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Grimsby

Lost 4 in a row Winless 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Northampton

Winless 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — League Two

Grimsby

3rd best clean sheets (4)

Northampton

2nd worst attack (0.50 goals/game)

Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Grimsby at home · Northampton away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Grimsby (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0

Northampton (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–2L
D 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Grimsby (home)Northampton (away)
W 3
D 1
L 1
D 2
L 2
Played
5
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.30
Clean sheets
3
0
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
14.5%
2–0
11.2%
2–1
6.9%
3–0
5.5%
3–1
3.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Grimsby 2 wins · 3 draws · Northampton 2 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 7

2
3
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Feb 2023 Northampton 1–2 Grimsby League Two
06 Aug 2022 Grimsby 1–1 Northampton League Two
29 Feb 2020 Grimsby 0–3 Northampton League Two
23 Nov 2019 Northampton 2–0 Grimsby League Two
16 Mar 2019 Grimsby 0–0 Northampton League Two
24 Nov 2018 Northampton 2–2 Grimsby League Two
07 Dec 2013 Grimsby 2–0 Northampton FA Cup

📈 Recent Form

Grimsby

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Port Vale Away 0–1 L
03/10 Shrewsbury Home 1–2 L
26/09 Newport County Away 1–2 L
22/09 Notts County Away 1–2 L
19/09 Crawley Town Home 2–0 W

Northampton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 York Away 1–1 D
06/10 Cambridge United Away 1–2 L
19/09 Rotherham Home 0–1 L
12/09 Shrewsbury Away 0–2 L
05/09 Newport County Home 1–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — League Two

Grimsby #11 · 13 pts —  Northampton #23 · 7 pts

Grimsby

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–3L
W 3
D 4
L 3
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards14
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.95
xG against (avg)0.22
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Northampton

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–4D–3L
W 1
D 4
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets2
Failed to score4
Yellow cards12
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.68
xG against (avg)0.96
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
GrimsbyNorthampton
W 3
D 4
L 3
W 1
D 4
L 3
Played
10
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
0.90
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
2
4
Yellow cards
14
12
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.95
0.68
xG against (avg)
0.22
0.96
Corners for (avg)
5.40
4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Grimsby

3
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Northampton

2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws