Rotherham vs Newport County

Rotherham host Newport County at the Aesseal New York Stadium in League Two's twelfth round, and the table tells the story of two clubs heading in opposite directions. The hosts sit 20th on 10 points from 10 games, while Newport arrive 12th with 13 points.

Form is the clearest signal here. Rotherham's last five read LLLDW, a run that has kept them hovering uncomfortably close to trouble. Newport, by contrast, are unbeaten across their last five at WDWWD. Yet the underlying numbers muddy that picture: Rotherham's recent expected goals stand at 2.51, well above Newport's 1.25, and the model's goal expectations are almost level, at 1.2581 for the home side and 1.227 for the visitors.

The model leans toward a Rotherham win at 30.3 percent, with a draw at 27.7 percent, so the double chance covering home or draw lands at 67.6 percent and looks the steadier play. Both teams to score is priced at 48.5 percent, under 2.5 goals at 49.2 percent, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 9.2 percent. Corners point low, with an expected 8.8 and under 9.5 at 53.6 percent. With no injuries reported on either side, the value likely hides in the double chance rather than the outright result.

The honest caveat: Rotherham's form is genuinely poor, and a Newport side unbeaten in five could easily punish any overconfidence in the home numbers.