Predictions → England National League North

Chorley vs Buxton

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • National League North - 13 • Victory Park

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 90% 72.2% — — — —
Double Chance 1X 79% 82.3% — — — —
BTTS Yes 83% 53.8% — — — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 87% 59.8% — — — —
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.5% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Chorley 2.50 – 1.13 Buxton · expected total 3.63

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Chorley

Form (last 5)
WAFC Telford United (H) 2–1 · 10/10/2026WBarton Town Old Boys (A) 4–1 · 03/10/2026WSpalding United (H) 2–1 · 26/09/2026WRylands (A) 1–0 · 19/09/2026LKing's Lynn Town (A) 0–2 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1450

Buxton

Form (last 5)
DWorksop Town (H) 2–2 · 17/10/2026LKing's Lynn Town (A) 0–1 · 10/10/2026LSouth Shields (H) 0–2 · 03/10/2026LSouth Shields (A) 0–4 · 26/09/2026WAshton United (H) 1–0 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1622
ChorleyBuxton
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
Elo strength rating
1450
1622

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Chorley

Won 4 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Buxton

Winless 4
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Chorley at home · Buxton away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Chorley (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–1L
W 4
D 1
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Buxton (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–4L
W 1
D 1
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score3
Chorley (home)Buxton (away)
W 4
D 1
L 1
W 1
D 1
L 4
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
2.30
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.5%
2–0
6.6%
3–1
6.3%
3–0
5.5%
1–0
4.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Buxton 4 wins · 2 draws · Chorley 2 wins · avg 3.6 goals · BTTS in 6 of 8

4
2
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
14 Mar 2026 Chorley 1–2 Buxton National League - North
18 Oct 2025 Buxton 3–2 Chorley National League - North
18 Apr 2025 Buxton 1–0 Chorley National League - North
04 Feb 2025 Chorley 3–0 Buxton National League - North
06 Apr 2024 Buxton 3–1 Chorley National League - North
12 Dec 2023 Chorley 3–2 Buxton National League - North
25 Feb 2023 Chorley 2–2 Buxton National League - North
10 Jan 2023 Buxton 2–2 Chorley National League - North

📈 Recent Form

Chorley

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 AFC Telford United Home 2–1 W
03/10 Barton Town Old Boys Away 4–1 W
26/09 Spalding United Home 2–1 W
19/09 Rylands Away 1–0 W
12/09 King's Lynn Town Away 0–2 L

Buxton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Worksop Town Home 2–2 D
10/10 King's Lynn Town Away 0–1 L
03/10 South Shields Home 0–2 L
26/09 South Shields Away 0–4 L
19/09 Ashton United Home 1–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — National League North

Chorley #10 · 17 pts —  Buxton #11 · 17 pts

Chorley

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–2D–4L
W 5
D 2
L 4
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Buxton

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–2D–5L
W 5
D 2
L 5
Played12
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
ChorleyBuxton
W 5
D 2
L 4
W 5
D 2
L 5
Played
11
12
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.80
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
2
3
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Chorley

0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
1
6
76-90
5
scored conceded

Buxton

3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
7
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: National League North predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws