Chelmsford City vs Farnborough
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • National League South - 16 • ☁️ 8.9°C, 6 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 55.9% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 79.2% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 72.2% · No 27.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 75.3% · Under 24.7% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 8.7% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Chelmsford City · Home
Chelmsford City have scored 12 goals across their last five matches, including a 5-0 win at Chesham United and a 3-1 win at AFC Totton. They failed to score only once in that run, though they were beaten 0-1 at Wimborne Town.
Farnborough · Away
Farnborough have failed to score in three of their last five matches and conceded 12 goals in the same span, including a 0-5 home loss to Horsham and a 0-4 defeat at Billericay Town. Their two wins in that run both came at home, against Weston-super-Mare and Dagenham & Redbridge.
Chelmsford's scoring edge over Farnborough
The latest head-to-head, on 25 Mar 2026, finished 4-2 to Farnborough, and the two meetings before it produced 2-5 and 3-4 scorelines, so this fixture has recently delivered goals for both sides. Chelmsford's recent 12 goals in five matches contrast with Farnborough's 4, and three of Farnborough's last five matches ended without them scoring. The model gives Chelmsford a model expected goals figure of 2.42 against Farnborough's 1.54, supporting a home win rather than a repeat of the 4-2 away result. The evidence supports Chelmsford City win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Chelmsford City 2.42 – 1.54 Farnborough · expected total 3.96
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Chelmsford City
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Chelmsford City
Farnborough
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Chelmsford City at home · Farnborough away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Chelmsford City (home)
Farnborough (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Chelmsford City 4 wins · 1 draw · Farnborough 3 wins · avg 4 goals · BTTS in 6 of 8
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | Farnborough | 4–2 | Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| 01 Sep 2025 | Chelmsford City | 2–5 | Farnborough | National League - South |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Farnborough | 3–4 | Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Chelmsford City | 1–2 | Farnborough | National League - South |
| 27 Feb 2024 | Farnborough | 1–1 | Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| 05 Aug 2023 | Chelmsford City | 1–0 | Farnborough | National League - South |
| 07 Apr 2023 | Chelmsford City | 3–2 | Farnborough | National League - South |
| 27 Sep 2022 | Farnborough | 0–1 | Chelmsford City | National League - South |
📈 Recent Form
Chelmsford City
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | AFC Totton | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 27/10 | Dover | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 24/10 | Tonbridge Angels | Home | 3–3 | D |
| 17/10 | Wimborne Town | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 10/10 | Chesham United | Away | 5–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Brackley Town | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 26/09 | Horsham | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 19/09 | Canvey Island | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Hampton & Richmond | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 08/09 | Dorking Wanderers | Away | 3–3 | D |
Farnborough
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Horsham | Home | 0–5 | L |
| 28/10 | Weston-super-Mare | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Folkestone Invicta | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Dagenham & Redbridge | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Billericay Town | Away | 0–4 | L |
| 26/09 | Walton & Hersham | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 22/09 | Uxbridge | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Uxbridge | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Dover | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 08/09 | Hampton & Richmond | Away | 0–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: National League South
Chelmsford City #12 · 21 pts · Farnborough #16 · 17 pts
Chelmsford City
Farnborough
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Chelmsford City
Farnborough
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: National League South predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws