Predictions β†’ England Premier League

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 15:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ City Ground β€’ β˜€οΈ 11.3Β°C, 14 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 85% 59.5% 1.66 1xBet 63.1% -3.6 pp
Double Chance X2 70% 70% 1.17 Bet365 85.9% -15.9 pp
BTTS No 84% 54.1% 1.90 Betfair 50.6% +3.5 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 54.7% 1.97 1xBet 50% +4.7 pp
Correct Score 0-1 68% 10.2% 7.00 Bet365 7.4% +2.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.8 exp.) Under 9.5 65% 56.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Nottingham Forest 0.95 – 1.23 Arsenal Β· expected total 2.19

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Nottingham Forest host Arsenal at the City Ground on Sunday, 18 October 2026, with the two clubs at opposite ends of the early Premier League table. Forest sit 14th on 5 points from 6 games, while Arsenal are 2nd on 15 points, so the visitors arrive with both the standings and the momentum behind them.

The form lines reinforce that gap. Forest have stumbled through a LWDDL run, whereas Arsenal have won four of five in a WLWWW sequence. The attacking numbers point the same way: Forest's recent expected goals sit at 1.54 against Arsenal's 1.95, and the model's match expectations of 0.9516 for the hosts versus 1.2349 for the visitors underline the imbalance. Both squads are depleted, with Forest missing N. Savona, R. Yates, I. Sangare, Igor Jesus and N. Milenkovic, and Arsenal without Bruno Guimaraes, W. Saliba, J. Timber, Gabriel Jesus, G. Martinelli, C. Mosquera, C. Tzolis and B. White. Recent head-to-heads have been tight or one-sided: 0-0, 3-0, 0-0, 3-0 and 1-2.

The model's headline pick is an away win at 59.5% probability, priced at 1.66, with double chance X2 at 70%. It also leans toward a low-scoring game: Under 2.5 goals at 54.7% (odds 1.97), BTTS No at 54.1% (odds 1.9), and Under 9.5 corners at 56.2% with 7.8 expected. The correct-score favourite is 0-1 at 10.2%, with 0-2 at 8.57 and 1-2 at 8.15. Value may hide in the unders and BTTS No if you expect Arsenal to control a patched-up Forest without a flood of goals.

The honest caveat: Arsenal's injury list is long enough to blunt their edge, and Forest's home crowd plus a cagey recent H2H record (two 0-0s) means the 1.66 away price carries real risk.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Nottingham Forest

Form (last 5)
LCoventry (H) 0–1 Β· 19/09/2026WAston Villa (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026DTottenham (H) 0–0 Β· 05/09/2026DLiverpool (A) 2–2 Β· 29/08/2026LLeeds (H) 0–2 Β· 25/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.54
xG against (recent avg)1.19
Elo strength rating1357
Players out5

Arsenal

Form (last 5)
WLeeds (H) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026LBrighton (A) 0–3 Β· 19/09/2026WIpswich (A) 4–2 Β· 15/09/2026WSunderland (A) 2–0 Β· 12/09/2026WNapoli (A) 1–0 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)0.61
xG against (recent avg)0.39
Elo strength rating1737
Players out8
Nottingham ForestArsenal
Goals scored (season avg)
0.80
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.80
Win streak (best this season)
1
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.54
0.61
xG against (recent avg)
1.19
0.39
Elo strength rating
1357
1737
Players out
5
8

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Nottingham Forest

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Arsenal

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Premier League

Nottingham Forest

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Arsenal

2nd best defence (0.80 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (3)

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Nottingham Forest at home Β· Arsenal away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Nottingham Forest (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3

Arsenal (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–1L
W 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Nottingham Forest (home)Arsenal (away)
D 1
L 2
W 2
L 1
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.00
Clean sheets
1
2
Failed to score
3
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
10.2%
0–2
7%
1–2
6.6%
0–3
2.9%
1–3
2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Arsenal 6 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Nottingham Forest 2 wins Β· avg 2.4 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 10

6
2
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
17 Jan 2026 Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal Premier League
13 Sep 2025 Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham Forest Premier League
26 Feb 2025 Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal Premier League
23 Nov 2024 Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham Forest Premier League
30 Jan 2024 Nottingham Forest 1–2 Arsenal Premier League
12 Aug 2023 Arsenal 2–1 Nottingham Forest Premier League
20 May 2023 Nottingham Forest 1–0 Arsenal Premier League
30 Oct 2022 Arsenal 5–0 Nottingham Forest Premier League
09 Jan 2022 Nottingham Forest 1–0 Arsenal FA Cup
24 Sep 2019 Arsenal 5–0 Nottingham Forest League Cup

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Nottingham Forest

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Coventry Home 0–1 L
12/09 Aston Villa Away 2–1 W
05/09 Tottenham Home 0–0 D
29/08 Liverpool Away 2–2 D
25/08 Leeds Home 0–2 L

Arsenal

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Leeds Home 2–1 W
19/09 Brighton Away 0–3 L
15/09 Ipswich Away 4–2 W
12/09 Sunderland Away 2–0 W
09/09 Napoli Away 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Premier League

Nottingham Forest #14 Β· 5 pts β€”  Arsenal #2 Β· 15 pts

Nottingham Forest

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–3L
W 1
D 2
L 3
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards13
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.54
xG against (avg)1.19
Corners for (avg)3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Arsenal

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–0D–1L
W 5
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.61
xG against (avg)0.39
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Nottingham ForestArsenal
W 1
D 2
L 3
W 5
L 1
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.80
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
3
1
Yellow cards
13
8
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.54
0.61
xG against (avg)
1.19
0.39
Corners for (avg)
3.50
4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Nottingham Forest

0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Arsenal

1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
5
61-75
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Nottingham Forest

  • ❌ N. Savona β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Yates β€” Injury
  • ❌ I. Sangare β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ Igor Jesus β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ N. Milenkovic β€” Knee Injury

Arsenal

  • ❌ Bruno Guimaraes β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ W. Saliba β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ J. Timber β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Gabriel Jesus β€” Transfer negotiations
  • ❌ G. Martinelli β€” Transfer negotiations
  • ❌ C. Mosquera β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Tzolis β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ B. White β€” Groin Injury

More: Premier League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws