Predictions β†’ England Premier League

Aston Villa vs Brentford

Next match: Sat, 10 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 6 β€’ Villa Park

🧠 Match Preview

Aston Villa host Brentford at Villa Park on Saturday with the two clubs in very different moods. Villa sit 16th on 4 points from 5 games, while Brentford arrive 4th on 9 points, unbeaten in their last five (WWDDD) against a Villa side that has mixed wins with a loss and a draw (WWLWD).

The model leans toward the home side despite the table: Aston Villa are given a 39.8 percent win probability at 76 confidence, with the draw at 27.6 percent. Brentford's recent attacking numbers are the warning sign β€” 1.98 expected goals across their recent games against Villa's 1.74 β€” yet the goal projections stay modest, with Villa at 1.4433 and Brentford at 1.3088. Both teams to score lands at 56.6 percent, and Over 2.5 goals is only 49.3 percent, so the value may sit with the double chance covering the home side and the draw at 71.6 percent. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 6.8 percent, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. Corners look low, with Under 9.5 at 57.9 percent against an expected 8.5.

The honest risk here is the team news: Villa's injury list is enormous, including Watkins, Martinez, Onana and Bailey, and Brentford are missing Collins and Jensen. With so many absences, the home edge is thinner than the 39.8 percent suggests.

Updated 21 Sep 2026, 04:06 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOdds
Match Result (1X2) Home 76% 39.8% β€”
Double Chance 12 71% 71.6% β€”
BTTS Yes 85% 56.6% β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.3% β€”
Correct Score 2-1 62% 6.8% β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 62% 27.6% β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.) Under 9.5 67% 57.9% β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Aston Villa 1.44 – 1.31 Brentford Β· expected total 2.75

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

FactorAston VillaBrentford
Form (last 5)WTottenham (A) 3–2 Β· 19/09/2026WCoventry (A) 3–1 Β· 16/09/2026LNottingham Forest (H) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026WClub Brugge KV (A) 3–2 Β· 08/09/2026DHull City (A) 0–0 Β· 05/09/2026WChelsea (H) 3–0 Β· 18/09/2026WReading (A) 2–1 Β· 15/09/2026DBournemouth (A) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026DSunderland (H) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026DLeeds (A) 1–1 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.82
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80.8
Win streak (best this season)01
xG for (recent avg)1.741.98
xG against (recent avg)1.551.21
Elo strength rating1617.71560.8
Players out146

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish β€” into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Aston Villa

Won 2 in a row BTTS 4 of 6 Over 2.5: 4 of 6 Scored in 4 of 6 Clean sheets: 1 of 6

Brentford

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 10 BTTS 5 of 6 Over 2.5: 4 of 6 Scored in 6 of 6 Clean sheets: 1 of 6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Premier League

Aston Villa

2nd best BTTS rate (67%)

Brentford

3rd best attack (2.00 goals/game) 3rd best defence (0.80 conceded/game) Best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Aston Villa (at home)Brentford (away)
Played22
Wins–Draws–Losses0-0-20-2-0
Goals scored (avg)0.51.5
Goals conceded (avg)1.51.5
Clean sheets00
Failed to score10

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

ScoreProbability
2–16.8%
1–06.3%
2–05.2%
3–13.3%
3–02.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Aston Villa 4 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Brentford 2 wins Β· avg 3.1 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 9

DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
01 Feb 2026 Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford Premier League
23 Aug 2025 Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa Premier League
08 Mar 2025 Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa Premier League
04 Dec 2024 Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford Premier League
06 Apr 2024 Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford Premier League
17 Dec 2023 Brentford 1–2 Aston Villa Premier League
30 Jul 2023 Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford Premier League - Summer Series
22 Apr 2023 Brentford 1–1 Aston Villa Premier League
23 Oct 2022 Aston Villa 4–0 Brentford Premier League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Aston Villa

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Tottenham Away 3–2 W
16/09 Coventry Away 3–1 W
12/09 Nottingham Forest Home 1–2 L
08/09 Club Brugge KV Away 3–2 W
05/09 Hull City Away 0–0 D

Brentford

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/09 Chelsea Home 3–0 W
15/09 Reading Away 2–1 W
12/09 Bournemouth Away 2–2 D
05/09 Sunderland Home 1–1 D
30/08 Leeds Away 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Premier League

Aston VillaBrentford
League position164
Points49
Played55
Wins–Draws–Losses1-1-32-3-0
Goals scored (avg)0.82
Goals conceded (avg)1.80.8
Clean sheets12
Failed to score30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/00/1
Yellow cards1111
Red cards10
xG for (avg)1.741.98
xG against (avg)1.551.21
Corners for (avg)3.65.5

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Aston Villa

0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
1
scored conceded

Brentford

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Aston Villa

  • ❌ T. Abraham β€” Injury
  • ❌ L. Bailey β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ B. Madjo β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. Manzambi β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ E. Martinez β€” Finger Injury
  • ❌ A. Onana β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ O. Watkins β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Gomes β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Alysson β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Bizot β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ L. Goretzka β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ I. Maatsen β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ P. Torres β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Cash β€” Muscle Injury

Brentford

  • ❌ A. Milambo β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. van den Berg β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Dasilva β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Jensen β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ N. Collins β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Furo β€” Surgery

More: Premier League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws