Predictions β†’ England Premier League

Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 13:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Amex Stadium β€’ 🌀 14.6Β°C, 28 km/h mostly clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 52.1% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 43.5% Β· Edge +9.4 pp
Best odds 2.30 Betfair 2.30William Hill 2.201xBet 2.20
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 88% 66.8% 1.63 1xBet 63% +3.8 pp
Double Chance 1X 78% 81.6% 1.19 1xBet 83.3% -1.7 pp
BTTS No 82% 51.5% 2.30 Betfair 42.1% +9.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.2% 1.63 1xBet 60.4% -13.2 pp
Correct Score 1-0 68% 10.1% 10.00 Bet365 5.4% +4.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.9 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Brighton 1.77 – 0.80 Crystal Palace Β· expected total 2.57

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Brighton host Crystal Palace at the Amex on Sunday with real momentum behind them. The Seagulls sit third on 13 points from six, while Palace arrive 12th on seven, so the stakes favour the home side's push at the top end of the table.

The model leans heavily on Brighton's recent form of WWWWD against Palace's DWLWW. The expected goals split is telling: Brighton carry a home figure of 1.7728 and a red-hot recent xG of 2.24, while Palace manage just 0.7997 away with 1.1 in recent matches. The head-to-head is a warning, though β€” Palace won 0-1 at the Amex in February 2026 and drew 0-0 in November 2025, so this fixture has not always followed the form book.

The headline tip is a Brighton win at 66.8% probability, priced at 1.63. Double chance 1X comes in at 81.6%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 51.5%, offered at 2.3, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 47.2% against odds of 1.63 β€” a spot where the bookmakers look more confident than the model. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 12.48, with 2-0 close behind at 12.03. Corners are tipped Under 9.5 at 53.4%, with an expected 8.9.

The honest caveat: both squads are badly depleted, with 13 Brighton names and seven Palace names listed as injuries, and that H2H record shows Palace have frustrated Brighton repeatedly. Treat the 1.63 home price as fair rather than generous.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Brighton

Form (last 5)
WSunderland (A) 2–0 Β· 10/10/2026WArsenal (H) 3–0 Β· 19/09/2026WManchester United (A) 3–2 Β· 16/09/2026WCoventry (A) 5–0 Β· 13/09/2026DLeeds (H) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)3.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.04
xG against (recent avg)0.99
Elo strength rating1623
Players out13

Crystal Palace

Form (last 5)
DLeeds (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026WLech Poznan (H) 4–0 Β· 17/09/2026LIpswich (H) 2–3 Β· 12/09/2026WMiddlesbrough (H) 3–0 Β· 08/09/2026WFulham (A) 3–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)2.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.67
xG against (recent avg)1.09
Elo strength rating1402
Players out7
BrightonCrystal Palace
Goals scored (season avg)
3.00
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.80
2.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.04
0.67
xG against (recent avg)
0.99
1.09
Elo strength rating
1623
1402
Players out
13
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Brighton

Won 4 in a row Unbeaten 5
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Crystal Palace

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Premier League

Brighton

Best attack (3.00 goals/game) 2nd best defence (0.80 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (4)

Crystal Palace

3rd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Brighton at home Β· Crystal Palace away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Brighton (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Crystal Palace (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Brighton (home)Crystal Palace (away)
W 2
D 1
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
2.70
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
1.30
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.1%
2–0
9.7%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
5.8%
3–1
4.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Brighton 2 wins Β· 5 draws Β· Crystal Palace 3 wins Β· avg 2.2 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 10

2
5
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Feb 2026 Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace Premier League
09 Nov 2025 Crystal Palace 0–0 Brighton Premier League
05 Apr 2025 Crystal Palace 2–1 Brighton Premier League
15 Dec 2024 Brighton 1–3 Crystal Palace Premier League
03 Feb 2024 Brighton 4–1 Crystal Palace Premier League
21 Dec 2023 Crystal Palace 1–1 Brighton Premier League
15 Mar 2023 Brighton 1–0 Crystal Palace Premier League
11 Feb 2023 Crystal Palace 1–1 Brighton Premier League
14 Jan 2022 Brighton 1–1 Crystal Palace Premier League
27 Sep 2021 Crystal Palace 1–1 Brighton Premier League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Brighton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Sunderland Away 2–0 W
19/09 Arsenal Home 3–0 W
16/09 Manchester United Away 3–2 W
13/09 Coventry Away 5–0 W
05/09 Leeds Home 1–1 D

Crystal Palace

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Leeds Away 0–0 D
17/09 Lech Poznan Home 4–0 W
12/09 Ipswich Home 2–3 L
08/09 Middlesbrough Home 3–0 W
05/09 Fulham Away 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Premier League

Brighton #3 Β· 13 pts β€”  Crystal Palace #12 Β· 7 pts

Brighton

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–1L
W 4
D 1
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)3.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets4
Failed to score0
Yellow cards13
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.04
xG against (avg)0.99
Corners for (avg)4.70
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Crystal Palace

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–3L
W 2
D 1
L 3
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)2.20
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Yellow cards6
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.67
xG against (avg)1.09
Corners for (avg)3.70
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
BrightonCrystal Palace
W 4
D 1
L 1
W 2
D 1
L 3
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
3.00
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
2.20
Clean sheets
4
1
Failed to score
0
2
Yellow cards
13
6
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.04
0.67
xG against (avg)
0.99
1.09
Corners for (avg)
4.70
3.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Brighton

4
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
76-90
4
scored conceded

Crystal Palace

1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Brighton

  • ❌ C. Baleba β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ E. Ferguson β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Y. Minteh β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Mitoma β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ M. O'Riley β€” Illness
  • ❌ S. Tzimas β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Hinshelwood β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Orozco β€” Injury
  • ❌ F. Azeez β€” Abdominal strain
  • ❌ G. Rutter β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Svoboda β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Wieffer β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Z. Yohanna β€” Lacking Match Fitness

Crystal Palace

  • ❌ J. Mateta β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ C. Riad β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ I. Sarr β€” Injury
  • ❌ E. Nketiah β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Disasi β€” Red Card
  • ❌ D. Henderson β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ T. Tomiyasu β€” Calf Injury

More: Premier League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws