Predictions β†’ England Premier League

Everton vs Chelsea

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 11:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Hill Dickinson Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 11Β°C, 5 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 49.4% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 39.2% Β· Edge +10.0 pp
Best odds 2.55 Betfair 2.55William Hill 2.40Betano 2.35
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.6% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.45 β†’ 2.23 β–Ό9% 75% 33.3% 2.23 1xBet 45.3% -12 pp
Double Chance 12 70% 69.7% 1.30 1xBet 75.4% -5.7 pp
BTTS No 80% 48.1% 2.55 Betfair 38.1% +10 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.1% 2.28 1xBet 43.1% +4 pp
Correct Score 0-1 58% 4.7% 11.00 Bet365 4.8% -0.1 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 56% 26.5% 3.88 1xBet 24.6% +1.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.4 exp.) Over 9.5 65% 55.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Everton 1.60 – 0.96 Chelsea Β· expected total 2.55

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Everton host Chelsea at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday with the two sides level on 10 points from six games, sitting fifth and sixth respectively. It is a genuine six-pointer in the early-season table, and the model leans toward the visitors despite the venue.

The form lines are contrasting. Everton arrive on a WWDDD run, while Chelsea have been patchier with WLDWL. The expected goals numbers tell a tighter story: Everton's recent home xG sits at 1.65 against a season figure of 1.5952, while Chelsea's recent away xG is 1.24 against 0.9591. Chelsea's injury list is the obvious red flag, with ten names including M. Caicedo and Joao Pedro, against four for Everton. The head-to-head is volatile, from Everton's 3-0 win in March 2026 to Chelsea's 6-0 rout in April 2024.

The model's headline pick is an away win at 33.3 percent, priced at 2.23, with confidence at 75. Double chance 12 comes in at 69.7 percent. Both teams to score No is rated 48.1 percent at 2.55, and Under 2.5 goals sits at 47.1 percent at 2.28. The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 4.7 percent. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 55.9 percent with an expected 11.4.

The honest caveat is that 33.3 percent is not a commanding edge, and Chelsea's lengthy absentee list could easily flip this toward the draw, which the model rates at 26.5 percent with 56 confidence. Treat the away win as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Everton

Form (last 5)
WIpswich (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WWolves (H) 1–0 Β· 16/09/2026DTottenham (A) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026DManchester United (H) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026DBournemouth (A) 1–1 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.26
xG against (recent avg)0.93
Elo strength rating1460
Players out4

Chelsea

Form (last 5)
WBournemouth (H) 5–1 Β· 10/10/2026LBrentford (A) 0–3 Β· 18/09/2026DHull City (H) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026WLeeds (H) 6–3 Β· 09/09/2026LArsenal (A) 1–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.50
Goals conceded (season avg)2.20
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.63
xG against (recent avg)0.81
Elo strength rating1527
Players out10
EvertonChelsea
Goals scored (season avg)
1.20
2.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.60
2.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.26
0.63
xG against (recent avg)
0.93
0.81
Elo strength rating
1460
1527
Players out
4
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Everton

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 9
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Chelsea

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Premier League

Everton

Best defence (0.60 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (3)

Chelsea

3rd best attack (2.50 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Everton at home Β· Chelsea away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Everton (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Chelsea (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–2L
W 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Everton (home)Chelsea (away)
W 2
D 1
W 1
L 2
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
2.30
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
4.7%
1–2
4.3%
0–2
2.7%
1–3
1.4%
2–3
1.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Chelsea 4 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Everton 3 wins Β· avg 2.2 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 10

4
3
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
21 Mar 2026 Everton 3–0 Chelsea Premier League
13 Dec 2025 Chelsea 2–0 Everton Premier League
26 Apr 2025 Chelsea 1–0 Everton Premier League
22 Dec 2024 Everton 0–0 Chelsea Premier League
15 Apr 2024 Chelsea 6–0 Everton Premier League
10 Dec 2023 Everton 2–0 Chelsea Premier League
18 Mar 2023 Chelsea 2–2 Everton Premier League
06 Aug 2022 Everton 0–1 Chelsea Premier League
01 May 2022 Everton 1–0 Chelsea Premier League
16 Dec 2021 Chelsea 1–1 Everton Premier League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Everton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Ipswich Home 1–0 W
16/09 Wolves Home 1–0 W
12/09 Tottenham Away 0–0 D
06/09 Manchester United Home 2–2 D
29/08 Bournemouth Away 1–1 D

Chelsea

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Bournemouth Home 5–1 W
18/09 Brentford Away 0–3 L
12/09 Hull City Home 2–2 D
09/09 Leeds Home 6–3 W
06/09 Arsenal Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Premier League

Everton #5 Β· 10 pts β€”  Chelsea #6 Β· 10 pts

Everton

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–0L
W 2
D 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.26
xG against (avg)0.93
Corners for (avg)5.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Chelsea

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–2L
W 3
D 1
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.20
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.63
xG against (avg)0.81
Corners for (avg)7.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
EvertonChelsea
W 2
D 4
W 3
D 1
L 2
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
2.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
2.20
Clean sheets
3
0
Failed to score
1
1
Yellow cards
9
9
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.26
0.63
xG against (avg)
0.93
0.81
Corners for (avg)
5.20
7.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Everton

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Chelsea

0-15
7
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Everton

  • ❌ T. Iroegbunam β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Norgaard β€” Injury
  • ❌ V. Mykolenko β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Rohl β€” Injury

Chelsea

  • ❌ A. Anselmino β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Caicedo β€” Injury
  • ❌ E. Emegha β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ W. Fofana β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Henderson β€” Wrist Injury
  • ❌ M. Sarr β€” Transfer negotiations
  • ❌ E. Fernandez β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ M. Palestra β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Gittens β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Joao Pedro β€” Knee Injury

More: Premier League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws