Coventry vs Newcastle

Next match: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • Round 6 • Coventry Building Society Arena • 🌦 16.6°C, 10 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

BTTS — No

Model 50.6% · Market best price ≈ 40% · Edge +12.0 pp

Best odds 2.50 Betfair 2.50Betano 2.371xBet 2.35

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 4.1% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away 2.18 → 2.25 ▲3%	77%	39.4%	2.25	Dafabet	45.5%	-6.1 pp
Double Chance	X2	67%	66.2%	1.36	William Hill	71.8%	-5.6 pp
BTTS	No	82%	51%	2.50	Betfair	39%	+12 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	82%	51.9%	2.30	1xBet	42.8%	+9.1 pp
Correct Score	0-1	68%	10.1%	11.00	Bet365	4.8%	+5.3 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.)	Over 9.5	62%	53.6%	2.00	Betano	49.6%	+4 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Coventry 0.98 – 1.07 Newcastle · expected total 2.05

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Coventry host Newcastle on Monday night sitting 19th in the Premier League with just 3 points from 5 games, while the visitors arrive 11th on 8 points. The stakes are clear for the home side: a fifth defeat in six would deepen early-season trouble, and the form line reads WLLLL against Newcastle's WLWDW.

The model sees a low-scoring, tight contest. Expected goals sit at 0.9802 for Coventry and 1.0669 for Newcastle, with recent xG form almost identical at 1.07 and 1.03. Both squads are heavily depleted — Coventry list nine absentees including L. Woolfenden and H. Wright, while Newcastle are without Joelinton, V. Livramento, D. Burn and others. That context explains why the goals markets lean cautious.

The headline tip is an away win at 39.4% probability, priced at 2.25 — a modest edge rather than a screaming one. Double chance X2 lands at 66.2% and is the safer route. Under 2.5 goals carries 51.9% at odds of 2.3, and BTTS No sits at 51% with 2.5 available. The correct-score model favours 0-1 at 10.1%, with 0-2 (7.35) and 1-2 (7.2) next in line. Corners offer a separate angle: over 9.5 at 53.6% with an expected 10.3.

The honest caveat is that 39.4% is far from dominant, and Newcastle's own injury list is long enough to blunt their edge. Coventry's desperation at home could produce a scrappier, higher-variance game than the goal models assume, so treat the away win as a value play, not a banker.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Coventry

Form (last 5)

WNottingham Forest (A) 1–0 · 19/09/2026LAston Villa (H) 1–3 · 16/09/2026LBrighton (H) 0–5 · 13/09/2026 LManchester City (A) 0–1 · 05/09/2026LHull City (H) 0–1 · 29/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)0.20

Goals conceded (season avg)2.00

Win streak (best this season)0

xG for (recent avg)0.82

xG against (recent avg)1.27

Elo strength rating1330

Players out8

Newcastle

Form (last 5)

WHull City (H) 2–1 · 19/09/2026 LLeeds (A) 1–4 · 14/09/2026WMillwall (A) 1–0 · 08/09/2026DBournemouth (H) 2–2 · 05/09/2026WTottenham (A) 2–0 · 29/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.80

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.83

xG against (recent avg)1.31

Elo strength rating1467

Players out9

CoventryNewcastle

WNottingham Forest (A) 1–0 · 19/09/2026LAston Villa (H) 1–3 · 16/09/2026LBrighton (H) 0–5 · 13/09/2026 LManchester City (A) 0–1 · 05/09/2026LHull City (H) 0–1 · 29/08/2026

WHull City (H) 2–1 · 19/09/2026 LLeeds (A) 1–4 · 14/09/2026WMillwall (A) 1–0 · 08/09/2026DBournemouth (H) 2–2 · 05/09/2026WTottenham (A) 2–0 · 29/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

0.20

1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.00

1.80

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.82

0.83

xG against (recent avg)

1.27

1.31

Elo strength rating

1330

1467

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Coventry

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

3/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Newcastle

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Premier League

Coventry

Worst attack (0.20 goals/game)

Newcastle

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Coventry at home · Newcastle away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Coventry (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L

L 2

Played2

Goals scored (avg)0.00

Goals conceded (avg)3.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Newcastle (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L

W 1

L 1

Played2

Goals scored (avg)1.50

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Coventry (home)Newcastle (away)

L 2

W 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.00

1.50

Goals conceded (avg)

3.00

2.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1

10.1%

0–2

1–2

5.9%

0–3

2.1%

1–3

2.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

📈 Recent Form

Coventry

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
19/09	Nottingham Forest	Away	1–0	W
16/09	Aston Villa	Home	1–3	L
13/09	Brighton	Home	0–5	L
05/09	Manchester City	Away	0–1	L
29/08	Hull City	Home	0–1	L

Newcastle

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
19/09	Hull City	Home	2–1	W
14/09	Leeds	Away	1–4	L
08/09	Millwall	Away	1–0	W
05/09	Bournemouth	Home	2–2	D
29/08	Tottenham	Away	2–0	W

📊 Season Comparison — Premier League

Coventry #19 · 3 pts — Newcastle #11 · 8 pts

Coventry

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–4L

W 1

L 4

Played5

Goals scored (avg)0.20

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score4

Yellow cards4

Red cards1

xG for (avg)0.82

xG against (avg)1.27

Corners for (avg)3.50

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Newcastle

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L

W 2

D 2

L 1

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Yellow cards12

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.83

xG against (avg)1.31

Corners for (avg)6.70

Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

CoventryNewcastle

W 1

L 4

W 2

D 2

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.20

1.80

Goals conceded (avg)

2.00

1.80

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.82

0.83

xG against (avg)

1.27

1.31

Corners for (avg)

3.50

6.70

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Coventry

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Newcastle

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Coventry

❌ L. Woolfenden — Knee Injury
❌ H. Wright — Muscle Injury
❌ K. Kesler-Hayden — Muscle Injury
❌ Y. Gboho — Transfer negotiations
❌ S. Mfuni — Loan agreement
❌ J. Eccles — Injury
❌ A. Amenda — Calf Injury
❌ T. Awoniyi — Red Card
❓ J. Latibeaudiere (doubtful) — Injury

Newcastle

❌ Joelinton — Injury
❌ V. Livramento — Hamstring Injury
❌ D. Burn — Ankle Injury
❌ W. Osula — Injury
❌ A. Elanga — Knee Injury
❌ E. Jaouen — Ankle Injury
❌ A. Dedic — Muscle Injury
❌ Nico — Injury
❌ J. Ramsey — Injury

More: Premier League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: John Brooks