Hull City vs Everton

Hull City host Everton at the MKM Stadium on Sunday with the two sides separated by a single point in the early Premier League table. Hull sit 8th on 8 points from 5 games, Everton 7th on 9, so this is a genuine mid-table six-pointer rather than a mismatch.

The model leans away. Everton's last five read WWDDD, while Hull's LDLDW shows just one win, and the underlying numbers back the visitors: recent expected goals favour Everton at 1.32 against Hull's 0.73, though the season-long attacking figures are almost identical at 1.2465 for Hull and 1.257 for Everton. Hull's injury list is the real story here, with thirteen names including J. Butland, C. Hughes and M. Targett, against just three for Everton.

The headline tip is an away win at 35.6 percent with confidence of 74, and the double chance covering draw or Everton lands at 70 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.3 percent, and Under 2.5 goals at 51 percent fits a low-event read. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 9.01 percent, ahead of 1-2 at 8.06 and 0-2 at 6.47. Corners look low too, Under 9.5 at 60.1 percent against an expected 8.2. The draw is priced at 29.1 percent with confidence 65, so if you want cover, the double chance is the safer route.

The honest caveat: 35.6 percent is not a dominant edge, and with no bookmaker odds quoted here, value is unproven. Hull's home crowd and Everton's three draws in five make the stalemate a live threat.