Newcastle vs Everton

Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park on Monday night with both sides stuck in mid-table and desperate for a result that would kick-start their season. Newcastle sit 11th on 8 points from 7 games, Everton 8th on 10 from the same number, so a home win would pull the Magpies level on points with their visitors.

The model sees a tight, low-scoring contest. Expected goals read 1.2688 for Newcastle and 1.1618 for Everton, though recent attacking output tells a different story: 1.35 for the hosts against 1.65 for the visitors. Form is patchy on both sides — Newcastle's last five reads LLWLW, Everton's LDWWD — and the home injury list is brutal, with Joelinton, Livramento, Burn, Osula, Elanga and others all out. Everton are missing four, including Mykolenko and Norgaard. The head-to-head record is wild and leans away: Everton won 3-1 and 3-2 at St. James' in the last two meetings, with Newcastle's 4-1 at Goodison the exception.

The headline tip is a draw at 27.8 percent with confidence of 67, and the 1-1 correct score is the model's favourite at 11.7 percent, with 0-0 next at 10.1. Double chance 1X carries 65 percent, BTTS Yes sits at 50.1 percent and Under 2.5 at 47.4 percent — none of these are runaway edges. Corners look the cleaner angle: an expected 10.5 with Over 9.5 at 54.2 percent. Value likely hides in the draw and the 1-1 if bookmakers price the home side short on reputation alone.

The honest caveat: a 27.8 percent draw is a thin probability, and with nine Newcastle absentees the line-ups could shift the picture entirely. Treat the correct-score calls as speculative.