Fulham vs Hull City
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β’ 14:00 UTC+3 β’ Round 7 β’ Craven Cottage β’ β 14Β°C, 18 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 84% | 55.7% | 1.73 | 1xBet | 59.4% | -3.7 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 70% | 70.8% | 1.21 | Betano | 82.2% | -11.4 pp |
| BTTS | No | 81% | 48.6% | 2.10 | William Hill | 45.2% | +3.4 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83% | 52% | 2.15 | Pinnacle | 45.7% | +6.3 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 69% | 11% | 9.00 | Bet365 | 5.8% | +5.2 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.6 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 65% | 56.2% | β | β | β | β |
β½ Model expected goals: Fulham 1.19 β 0.90 Hull City Β· expected total 2.09
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β a big drop means the value window is closing.
π§ Match Preview
The model leans on recent underlying numbers rather than league position. Fulham's recent expected goals of 1.59 against Hull's 1.21 suggest the hosts create more, and the goal expectation splits 1.191 to 0.8981 in their favour. Form is patchy on both sides β Fulham's last five read LDWDL, Hull's LDLDW β and the head-to-head is lopsided, with Fulham winning four of the last five meetings, including 2-0 and 0-1 scorelines. Fulham's injury list is lighter than Hull's, who are missing a long cast including J. Butland and H. Morita.
The headline tip is a home win at 55.7% probability, priced at 1.73, with confidence at 84. Double chance 1X lands at 70.8%. For goals, Under 2.5 is favoured at 52% and 2.15, while BTTS No sits at 48.6% and 2.1. The correct-score model points to 1-0 at 11%, with 2-0 (8.78) and 2-1 (7.89) close behind. Corners offer interest: Over 9.5 at 56.2% with an expected 11.6.
The honest caveat: Fulham's league position is dire and their form is unconvincing, so the 1.73 home price carries real risk if the table reflects genuine decline rather than variance.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Fulham
Hull City
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Fulham
Hull City
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Premier League
Fulham
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Hull City
Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
Fulham at home Β· Hull City away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Fulham (home)
Hull City (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Fulham 6 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Hull City 3 wins Β· avg 2.5 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jan 2023 | Hull City | 0β2 | Fulham | FA Cup |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Hull City | 0β1 | Fulham | Championship |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Fulham | 2β0 | Hull City | Championship |
| 11 Jan 2020 | Hull City | 0β1 | Fulham | Championship |
| 02 Nov 2019 | Fulham | 0β3 | Hull City | Championship |
| 30 Dec 2017 | Hull City | 2β2 | Fulham | Championship |
| 13 Sep 2017 | Fulham | 2β1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 29 Jan 2017 | Fulham | 4β1 | Hull City | FA Cup |
| 23 Jan 2016 | Fulham | 0β1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 19 Aug 2015 | Hull City | 2β1 | Fulham | Championship |
π Recent Form
Fulham
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Ipswich | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 20/09 | Manchester United | Home | 1β1 | D |
| 15/09 | West Ham | Away | 3β2 | W |
| 12/09 | Liverpool | Away | 0β0 | D |
| 05/09 | Crystal Palace | Home | 2β3 | L |
Hull City
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Newcastle | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 12/09 | Chelsea | Away | 2β2 | D |
| 08/09 | Sunderland | Away | 0β1 | L |
| 05/09 | Aston Villa | Home | 0β0 | D |
| 29/08 | Coventry | Away | 1β0 | W |
π Season Comparison β Premier League
Fulham #20 Β· 2 pts β Hull City #8 Β· 9 pts
Fulham
Hull City
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Fulham
Hull City
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Fulham
- β J. Andersen β Red Card
- β T. Cairney β Knee Injury
- β L. De Fougerolles β Injury
- β A. Robinson β Ankle Injury
- β K. Tete β Concussion
Hull City
- β J. Butland β Arm Injury
- β J. Gelhardt β Ankle Injury
- β D. Gyabi β Groin Injury
- β C. Hughes β Groin Injury
- β M. Jacob β Hip Injury
- β E. Matazo β Knee Injury
- β H. Morita β Calf Injury
- β O. Zambrano β Hamstring Injury
- β I. Ansah β Back Injury
- β M. Crooks β Muscle Injury
- β P. McNair β Foot Injury
- β M. Targett β Ankle Injury
- β N. Mendy β Injury
More: Premier League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws