FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 13:30 UTC+3 • Round 6 • Veltins Arena • 🌦 12.8°C, 13 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 75% | 33.1% | 2.44 | 1xBet | 41.2% | -8.1 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 67% | 66.7% | 1.32 | 1xBet | 74% | -7.3 pp |
| BTTS | No | 82% | 51.6% | 2.55 | Betfair | 37.5% | +14.1 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 47% | 1.66 | 1xBet | 59.3% | -12.3 pp |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 63% | 7.2% | 11.00 | Bet365 | 4.8% | +2.4 pp |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 61% | 27.1% | 3.70 | Betfair | 26% | +1.1 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.5% | 1.98 | Bet365 | 48.3% | +4.2 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: FC Schalke 04 1.25 – 1.08 FSV Mainz 05 · expected total 2.33
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The headline tip is an away win at 33.1 percent probability, priced at 2.44, with confidence of 75. The double chance covering draw or away lands at 66.7 percent, and the draw itself carries 27.1 percent at 61 confidence. Both teams to score is tipped No at 51.6 percent, offered at 2.55, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 47 percent and just 1.66. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 7.2 percent, with 1-2 and 0-2 next in line. Corners lean Over 9.5, expected at 9.7 and 52.5 percent.
Value may hide in the away win at 2.44 if you trust the 33.1 percent read, and in the No on both teams scoring at 2.55, where the model gives it a slight edge over the coin flip. The honest caveat: neither probability is dominant, both teams are missing key players, and the low-scoring correct-score cluster suggests a tight, nervy game where a single set piece could flip the result.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
FC Schalke 04 at home · FSV Mainz 05 away — the split that matters for this fixture.
FC Schalke 04 (home)
FSV Mainz 05 (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
FC Schalke 04 6 wins · 3 draws · FSV Mainz 05 1 win · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 May 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2–3 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 09 Nov 2022 | FC Schalke 04 | 1–0 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 05 Mar 2021 | FC Schalke 04 | 0–0 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 07 Nov 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2–2 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 16 Feb 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0–0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep 2019 | FC Schalke 04 | 2–1 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 23 Feb 2019 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3–0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Sep 2018 | FC Schalke 04 | 1–0 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 09 Mar 2018 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0–1 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Oct 2017 | FC Schalke 04 | 2–0 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
FC Schalke 04
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | SV Elversberg | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 11/09 | Union Berlin | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 05/09 | Bayern München | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 30/08 | FC Augsburg | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 16/08 | Real Madrid | Home | 0–3 | L |
FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 03/10 | Waldhof Mannheim | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Away | 4–3 | W |
| 12/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 06/09 | Hamburger SV | Away | 5–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04 #13 · 5 pts — FSV Mainz 05 #8 · 7 pts
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
FC Schalke 04
- ❌ E. Hojlund — Heel Injury
- ❌ T. Kalas — Lacking Match Fitness
- ❌ K. Karaman — Hip Injury
- ❌ A. Gantenbein — Ankle Injury
- ❌ B. Lasme — Calf Injury
- ❌ R. Schallenberg — Red Card
- ❌ D. Ljubicic — Knee Injury
FSV Mainz 05
- ❌ B. Hollerbach — Lacking Match Fitness
- ❌ E. Martel — Knee Injury
- ❌ P. Nebel — Muscle Injury
- ❌ Silas — Broken shinbone
- ❌ D. Kohr — Foot Injury
- ❌ S. Widmer — Knee Injury
- ❌ O. Ruoppi — Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Zentner — Hand Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws