Monza vs Atalanta
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 17:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • 🌧 10.6°C, 1 km/h, 0.5mm rain
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 1xBet2.10 | 45% | -5.5% |
| Double Chance | 12 | 1xBet1.29 | 75.8% | -2.2% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.55 | 65.1% · No 34.9% | +0.9% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 1xBet1.63 | 61% · Under 39% | -0.6% |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | Bet3659.00 | 8.4% | -24.4% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.4 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 56.6% · Under 43.4% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Monza · Home
Monza have lost four of their last five, including a 1-4 home defeat to Napoli and a 1-3 loss at Lazio, though they did beat Cagliari 4-0 at home. Their recent xG for of 1.98 shows they are creating chances even while conceding heavily.
Atalanta · Away
Atalanta have drawn two of their last five, including a 4-4 home draw with Frosinone and a 2-2 draw at Fiorentina, and they beat Pafos 3-1 at home. Their recent xG for of 2.03 is slightly higher than Monza's.
Atalanta's H2H dominance
Atalanta have won all three of the latest head-to-head meetings, including a 0-4 win at Monza on 4 May 2025 and a 2-0 home win on 30 Oct 2024. Monza's recent home form is mixed, with a 4-0 win over Cagliari followed by a 1-4 loss to Napoli. Atalanta's model expected goals of 1.62 are close to Monza's 1.61, so the H2H record is the clearest separator. The evidence supports Atalanta win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Monza 1.61 – 1.62 Atalanta · expected total 3.22
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Monza
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Monza
Atalanta
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A
Monza
Atalanta
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Monza at home · Atalanta away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Monza (home)
Atalanta (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Atalanta 6 wins · 0 draws · Monza 0 wins · avg 3.5 goals · BTTS in 2 of 6
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May 2025 | Monza | 0–4 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 30 Oct 2024 | Atalanta | 2–0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Monza | 1–2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Atalanta | 3–0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 04 Jun 2023 | Atalanta | 5–2 | Monza | Serie A |
| 05 Sep 2022 | Monza | 0–2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
📈 Recent Form
Monza
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Bologna | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 28/10 | Napoli | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 23/10 | Torino | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 19/10 | Cagliari | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 11/10 | Lazio | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 03/10 | Stade Brestois 29 | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 26/09 | Cremonese | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 18/09 | Sassuolo | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 13/09 | Lecce | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 06/09 | Parma | Away | 1–1 | D |
Atalanta
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Fiorentina | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 25/10 | Frosinone | Home | 4–4 | D |
| 22/10 | Ajax | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 18/10 | AC Milan | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 15/10 | Pafos | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 12/10 | Venezia | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 20/09 | Juventus | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Cagliari | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/09 | AS Roma | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 31/08 | Bologna | Home | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie A
Monza #16 · 7 pts · Atalanta #13 · 11 pts
Monza
Atalanta
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Monza
Atalanta
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Monza
- ❌ E. Akinsanmiro: Muscle Injury
- ❌ L. Colombo: Injury
- ❌ D. Mota: Suspended (Suspended)
- ❌ D. Thiam: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ I. Toure: Knee Injury
- ❌ G. Varela: Thigh Injury
- ❌ J. Ziółkowski: Foot Injury
- ❌ M. Pessina: Jumpers Knee
- ❌ L. Lucchesi: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Y. Maye: Muscle Injury
- ❌ E. Zeballos: Knee Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): C. Ngonge (Lacking Match Fitness), M. Folorunsho (Coach's decision).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): P. Ciurria; not counted as confirmed absences.
Atalanta
- ❌ H. Ahanor: Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Kristensen: Ankle Injury
- ❌ K. Sulemana: Jumpers Knee
- ❌ I. Hien: Muscle Bruise
- ❌ G. Gaetano: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ O. Kossounou: Thigh Injury
- ❌ E. Elmas: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ F. Kessie: Calf Injury
- ❌ G. Raspadori: Thigh Injury
- ❌ G. Scalvini: Thigh Injury
- ❌ R. Bellanova: Thigh Injury
- ❌ S. Kolasinac: Thigh Injury
- ❌ G. Scamacca: Thigh Injury
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws