Atalanta vs Parma
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Mon, 02 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • Round 10 • New Balance Arena • ☀️ 8.1°C, 5 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 1.95 (60.3%, Model EV +17.6%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.46 → 1.56 ▲7% | 1xBet1.56 | 64.1% | -0% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.16 | 84.3% | -2.2% |
| BTTS | Yes | Betfair1.73 | 63.5% · No 36.5% | +9.9% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 1xBet1.67 | 61.3% · Under 38.7% | +2.4% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Betano8.75 | 9.7% | -15.1% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Pinnacle1.94 | 50.6% · Under 49.4% | -1.8% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Atalanta · Home
Atalanta have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, including a 4-0 win over Parma in the latest head-to-head on 25 Jan 2026. Their recent xG for those matches with recorded statistics is 2.03, and the model expects 2.24 goals here.
Parma · Away
Parma have failed to score in three of their last five matches and managed only 3 goals in that run. Their recent xG for matches with recorded statistics is just 0.68, well below the 1.21 the model expects for this fixture.
Atalanta's H2H and scoring edge
The latest head-to-head is the clearest angle: Atalanta beat Parma 4-0 on 25 Jan 2026, and the two earlier meetings produced a 1-1 draw and a 2-3 Parma win. Atalanta's recent 4-4 draw with Frosinone and 2-2 at Fiorentina show they concede, but they also scored 11 goals in five matches. Parma's 0-0 with Udinese and 0-3 losses to Torino and Inter underline a blunt attack that failed to score three times in five. The evidence supports Atalanta win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:46 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Atalanta 2.24 – 1.21 Parma · expected total 3.45
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Atalanta
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Atalanta
Parma
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A
Atalanta
Parma
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Atalanta at home · Parma away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Atalanta (home)
Parma (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Atalanta 7 wins · 1 draw · Parma 2 wins · avg 4.2 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Atalanta | 4–0 | Parma | Serie A |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Parma | 1–1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 25 May 2025 | Atalanta | 2–3 | Parma | Serie A |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Parma | 1–3 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 04 Aug 2024 | Parma | 4–1 | Atalanta | Friendlies Clubs |
| 09 May 2021 | Parma | 2–5 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 06 Jan 2021 | Atalanta | 3–0 | Parma | Serie A |
| 28 Jul 2020 | Parma | 1–2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 06 Jan 2020 | Atalanta | 5–0 | Parma | Serie A |
| 31 Mar 2019 | Parma | 1–3 | Atalanta | Serie A |
📈 Recent Form
Atalanta
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Fiorentina | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 25/10 | Frosinone | Home | 4–4 | D |
| 22/10 | Ajax | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 18/10 | AC Milan | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 15/10 | Pafos | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 12/10 | Venezia | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 20/09 | Juventus | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Cagliari | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/09 | AS Roma | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 31/08 | Bologna | Home | 1–0 | W |
Parma
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Udinese | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 24/10 | Lazio | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 19/10 | Torino | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 10/10 | Inter | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 20/09 | Genoa | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 14/09 | Como | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Monza | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 01/09 | Cremonese | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 29/08 | Juventus | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 22/08 | Cagliari | Home | 0–1 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie A
Atalanta #13 · 11 pts · Parma #18 · 5 pts
Atalanta
Parma
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Atalanta
Parma
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Atalanta
- ❌ H. Ahanor: Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Kristensen: Ankle Injury
- ❌ K. Sulemana: Jumpers Knee
- ❌ I. Hien: Muscle Bruise
- ❌ G. Gaetano: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ O. Kossounou: Thigh Injury
- ❌ E. Elmas: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ F. Kessie: Calf Injury
- ❌ G. Raspadori: Thigh Injury
- ❌ G. Scalvini: Thigh Injury
- ❌ R. Bellanova: Thigh Injury
- ❌ S. Kolasinac: Thigh Injury
- ❌ G. Scamacca: Thigh Injury
Parma
- ❌ S. Britschgi: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ O. Diallo: Injury
- ❌ L. Valenti: Rest
- ❌ H. Nicolussi: Groin Injury
- ❌ P. Almqvist: Calf Injury
- ❌ A. Ndiaye: Knock
- ❌ N. Elphege: Illness
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): A. Joujou, A. Bernabe; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Valerio Crezzini