Cagliari vs Bologna

Cagliari host Bologna at the Unipol Domus on Saturday with Serie A points and momentum on the line. The hosts sit 4th on 13 points from 6 games, while Bologna arrive 14th with just 5 points from 6, so the table already frames this as a chance for Cagliari to keep climbing and for Bologna to stop the slide.

The model leans clearly toward the home side. Cagliari's recent form reads DWWWL, and their recent expected goals sit at 1.19, with a match expectation of 1.3159. Bologna's form is WDLDL, and their recent expected goals are 1.08, but their match expectation drops to 0.7925, suggesting the away side may struggle to create. Both squads are heavily disrupted: Cagliari list nine absentees including M'Bala Nzola and Y. Mina, while Bologna are without R. Orsolini, A. Dovbyk and others, with A. Theate doubtful.

The headline tip is a Home win at 46.7 percent probability with confidence 80. Double chance 1X is rated 75.8 percent. The model also favours No on both teams to score at 52.1 percent and Under 2.5 goals at 56.2 percent, with 1-0 the most likely correct score at 12.2 percent. Corners are expected at 9.7, giving Over 9.5 a 52.5 percent chance. With no bookmaker odds supplied, value is hard to pin precisely, but the 1X and Under 2.5 angles look the most defensible. The honest caveat: nine Cagliari absences and a low-scoring H2H history mean a single Bologna goal could flip this quickly.