Predictions → Italy Serie D - Girone B

Caldiero Terme vs Villa Valle

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Group B - 11 • Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini • ☁️ 11°C, 1 km/h, 0.1mm overcast

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Draw Current price not available26% —
Double Chance 1X Current price not available66.4% —
BTTS Yes Current price not available63.1% · No 36.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Current price not available40.1% · Over 59.9% —
Correct Score 1-1 Current price not available11.9% —

🧠 Match Preview

Caldiero Terme · Home

Caldiero Terme have alternated sharply at home, losing 0-1 to Cjarlins Muzane before beating Brusaporto 2-0, and their 1-1 draw with Villa Valle is the latest head-to-head. Their model expected goals of 1.63 sit above Villa Valle's 1.47, so a share of the scoring is plausible.

Villa Valle · Away

Villa Valle arrive unbeaten in five with 10 goals for and 2 against, including a 0-0 draw at Scanzorosciate and a 3-0 win at Real Calepina. Yet they drew 1-1 at Caldiero Terme in the latest meeting, showing this opponent can hold them level.

Head-to-head points to parity

The latest head-to-head, a 1-1 draw on 19 Apr 2026, is the clearest guide, and the earlier meetings split 2-1 and 2-4. Caldiero Terme's home results include a 2-0 win over Brusaporto and a 0-1 loss to Cjarlins Muzane, while Villa Valle have drawn once in five. With model expected goals of 1.63 and 1.47, a level scoreline is realistic rather than a stretch. The evidence supports Draw.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Caldiero Terme 1.63 – 1.47 Villa Valle · expected total 3.11

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Caldiero Terme

Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Best league winning streak this season2
Elo strength rating1330

Villa Valle

Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Best league winning streak this season3
Elo strength rating1384
Caldiero TermeVilla Valle
Goals scored (season avg)
1.70
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
0.70
Best league winning streak this season
2
3
Elo strength rating
1330
1384

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Caldiero Terme

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Villa Valle

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 7
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
5/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie D - Girone B

Caldiero Terme

3rd best attack (1.70 goals/game, season)

Villa Valle

2nd best defence (0.70 conceded/game, season) 2nd worst BTTS rate (17%, last 6) 2nd best clean sheets (5, season)

Rank among 18 Serie D - Girone B teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Caldiero Terme at home · Villa Valle away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Caldiero Terme (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–0L
W 3
D 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0

Villa Valle (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–0L
W 2
D 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Caldiero Terme (home)Villa Valle (away)
W 3
D 1
W 2
D 3
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
0.80
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–1
11.87%
2–2
6.49%
0–0
5.57%
3–3
1.74%
4–4
0.26%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Caldiero Terme 2 wins · 1 draw · Villa Valle 1 win · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 4

2
1
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
19 Apr 2026 Caldiero Terme 1–1 Villa Valle Serie D - Girone B
07 Dec 2025 Villa Valle 2–1 Caldiero Terme Serie D - Girone B
05 May 2024 Villa Valle 2–4 Caldiero Terme Serie D - Girone B
20 Dec 2023 Caldiero Terme 1–0 Villa Valle Serie D - Girone B

📈 Recent Form

Caldiero Terme

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Rovato Vertovese Away 1–3 L
28/10 Cjarlins Muzane Home 0–1 L
24/10 Brusaporto Home 2–0 W
18/10 Piacenza Away 1–3 L
11/10 Pro Palazzolo Away 3–1 W
07/10 Este Away 2–0 W
04/10 Nibbiano & Valtidone Home 1–0 W
27/09 Fiorenzuola Away 1–1 D
20/09 Scanzorosciate Home 1–0 W
16/09 Real Calepina Away 2–2 D

Villa Valle

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Brusaporto Home 5–2 W
28/10 Brusaporto Home 1–0 W
24/10 Scanzorosciate Away 0–0 D
18/10 Pro Palazzolo Home 1–0 W
11/10 Real Calepina Away 3–0 W
04/10 Fiorenzuola Home 0–0 D
27/09 Leon Away 2–1 W
20/09 Milan II Home 1–2 L
16/09 Tritium Away 1–1 D
12/09 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Home 0–0 D

📊 Season Comparison: Serie D - Girone B

Caldiero Terme #7 · 15 pts ·  Villa Valle #5 · 17 pts

Caldiero Terme

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–3L
W 4
D 3
L 3
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Villa Valle

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–5D–1L
W 4
D 5
L 1
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Caldiero TermeVilla Valle
W 4
D 3
L 3
W 4
D 5
L 1
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
0.70
Clean sheets
3
5
Failed to score
0
3
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Caldiero Terme

2
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
5
scored conceded

Villa Valle

0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

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