Pro Patria vs Pistoiese
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Group D - 11 • Carlo Speroni • 🌧 9.6°C, 1 km/h, 0.7mm rain
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 43.5% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 74.2% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 62.4% · No 37.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 59.4% · Under 40.6% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9.1% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Pro Patria · Home
Pro Patria's latest five show only 5 goals scored, with 2 wins and 2 draws, and the sole defeat was a 0-1 away loss to Pavia. Their two home matches in that run produced a 1-1 draw with Correggese and a 1-0 win over Sant'Angelo.
Pistoiese · Away
Pistoiese won 3 of their latest five but lost both away games, 1-2 at Cittadella Vis Modena and 0-1 at Sestri Levante. Their three wins all came at home, including a 4-2 success over Castellanzese.
Pistoiese travel troubles
The venue split is the clearest signal: Pistoiese took 3 wins and 0 draws in their latest five, yet both defeats came on the road, where they scored once across two matches. Pro Patria's home fixtures in the same run were tighter, a 1-1 draw with Correggese and a 1-0 win over Sant'Angelo. The latest head-to-head, on 7 Feb 2021, finished 1-2 to Pro Patria away from home, while the two earlier meetings were drawn. The evidence supports Pro Patria win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Pro Patria 1.69 – 1.39 Pistoiese · expected total 3.08
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Pro Patria
Pistoiese
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie D - Girone D
Pro Patria
Pistoiese
Rank among 18 Serie D - Girone D teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Pro Patria at home · Pistoiese away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Pro Patria (home)
Pistoiese (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Pistoiese 1 win · 2 draws · Pro Patria 2 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 4 of 5
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb 2021 | Pistoiese | 1–2 | Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| 11 Oct 2020 | Pro Patria | 0–0 | Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
| 24 Nov 2019 | Pro Patria | 1–1 | Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
| 30 Dec 2018 | Pistoiese | 3–1 | Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| 16 Sep 2018 | Pro Patria | 2–1 | Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
📈 Recent Form
Pro Patria
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Pavia | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 28/10 | Leon | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 25/10 | Correggese | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 18/10 | USD Casatese | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 11/10 | Sant'Angelo | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 07/10 | Città di Varese | Away | 5–2 | W |
| 04/10 | Varesina | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 27/09 | Solbiatese | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Arconatese | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Crema | Home | 2–0 | W |
Pistoiese
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Castellanzese | Home | 4–2 | W |
| 25/10 | Cittadella Vis Modena | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Pavia | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 11/10 | Correggese | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 07/10 | Sestri Levante | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 04/10 | USD Casatese | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 27/09 | Sant'Angelo | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Varesina | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Arconatese | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 13/09 | Crema | Away | 3–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie D - Girone D
Pro Patria #3 · 20 pts · Pistoiese #1 · 27 pts
Pro Patria
Pistoiese
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Pro Patria
Pistoiese
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Serie D - Girone D predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws