Pontedera
2+ conceded in 8/10
Pontedera have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 matches
Italy Serie D - Girone D Over 2.5 Goals Football Predictions
Round 11 • 9 Upcoming This Round • Updated 1 hour ago • UTC+3
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Serie A
Serie B
Serie C - Girone A
Campionato Primavera 1
Campionato Primavera 2
Coppa Italia Primavera
Coppa Italia Serie C
Coppa Italia Serie D
Serie A Women
Serie C - Girone B
Serie C - Girone C
Serie D - Girone A
Serie D - Girone B
Serie D - Girone C
Serie D - Girone E
Serie D - Girone F
Serie D - Girone G
Serie D - Girone H
Serie D - Girone I
Group D, Round 11
Sunday, November 08
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Probability | Goals O/U | Odds | Model EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:30 | WDLWL | WDWDD | 60.8% | Under 2.5 | N/A | — | — | |
| 16:30 | LDDWW | WLWWL | 59.4% | Over 2.5 | N/A | — | — | |
| 16:30 | LDWWW | WLLWL | 53.7% | Under 2.5 | N/A | — | — | |
| 16:30 | LLDDD | DDLLW | 64% | Under 2.5 | N/A | — | — | |
| 16:30 | WDDWL | LWLLD | 51.5% | Under 2.5 | N/A | — | — | |
| 16:30 | LDWWL | LLWWL | 44.6% | Under 2.5 | N/A | — | — | |
| 16:30 | LWDLL | WWLDL | 58.2% | Under 2.5 | N/A | — | — | |
| 16:30 | LDDLL | WDWDW | 67% | Under 2.5 | N/A | — | — | |
| 16:30 | DLLLL | WDDDD | 61.9% | Under 2.5 | N/A | — | — |
Form: last 5 matches in all competitions, newest first.
How to Read the Prediction Table
Recent Team Trends — Serie D - Girone D for Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Historical team trends, not probabilities for the next match. Cards are picked by transparent rules: the upcoming match, confirmed results, a declared sample size (e.g. last 10 matches, all competitions) and the most distinctive fact versus the league baseline.
Pontedera
2+ conceded in 8/10
Pro Patria
Under 2.5 in 7/10
Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Pro Patria's last 10 matches
USD Casatese
Over 2.5 in 7/10
Over 2.5 goals in 7 of USD Casatese's last 10 matches
Cittadella Vis Modena
Under 2.5 in 7/10
Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Cittadella Vis Modena's last 10 matches
Coriano
2+ conceded in 6/10
Coriano have conceded 2+ goals in 6 of their last 10 matches
Correggese
Under 2.5 in 6/10
Under 2.5 goals in 6 of Correggese's last 10 matches
Lentigione
Under 2.5 in 6/10
Under 2.5 goals in 6 of Lentigione's last 10 matches
Crema
Over 2.5 in 6/10
Over 2.5 goals in 6 of Crema's last 10 matches
📡
Model Accuracy — Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
🎯
Match Result (1X2)
33.3%
3/9
⚽
Both Teams to Score
44.4%
4/9
📈
Over / Under 2.5
33.3%
3/9
🔢
Correct Score
0.0%
0/9
🛡️
Double Chance
66.7%
6/9
🤝
Draw Predictions
0.0%
0/4
📌
1X2 · home/away picks
60.0%
3/5
📌
1X2 · draw picks
0.0%
0/4
Recent Form — Last 30 Days
🎯
Match Result (1X2)
33.3%
3/9
⚽
Both Teams to Score
44.4%
4/9
📈
Over / Under 2.5
33.3%
3/9
🛡️
Double Chance
66.7%
6/9
Calibration coverage
- Match Result (1X2): 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
- Both Teams to Score: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
- Over / Under 2.5: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
- Correct Score: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
- Double Chance: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
- Draw Predictions: 4/4. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) · <60% | 40.7% | 33.3% | 9 (small sample) |
| Both Teams to Score · <60% | 52.6% | 60.0% | 5 (small sample) |
| Both Teams to Score · 70-79% | 77.9% | 0.0% | 1 (small sample) |
| Both Teams to Score · 60-69% | 65.9% | 33.3% | 3 (small sample) |
| Over / Under 2.5 · <60% | 53.5% | 37.5% | 8 (small sample) |
| Over / Under 2.5 · 60-69% | 62.7% | 0.0% | 1 (small sample) |
| Correct Score · <60% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 9 (small sample) |
| Double Chance · 70-79% | 74.2% | 50.0% | 2 (small sample) |
| Double Chance · 80+% | 80.9% | 100.0% | 3 (small sample) |
| Double Chance · 60-69% | 65.8% | 50.0% | 4 (small sample) |
| Draw Predictions · <60% | 28.5% | 0.0% | 4 (small sample) |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Group D, Round 10
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Probability | Goals O/U | Odds | Model EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 16:30 | WWDWD | DDLLW | — | No data | N/A | — | 2 – 1 FT | |
| 02/11 16:30 | ----- | LLWWL | — | No data | N/A | — | 1 – 1 FT | |
| 02/11 16:30 | WLWWL | WDDWL | — | No data | N/A | — | 1 – 0 FT | |
| 02/11 16:30 | WLLWD | DLLLL | — | No data | N/A | — | 2 – 0 FT | |
| 02/11 16:30 | WLLWW | LLDDD | — | No data | N/A | — | 2 – 2 FT | |
| 02/11 16:30 | ----- | LLLLL | — | No data | N/A | — | 2 – 1 FT | |
| 02/11 16:30 | LDLLW | ----- | — | No data | N/A | — | 1 – 1 FT | |
| 02/11 16:30 | LWDLL | WDWDW | — | No data | N/A | — | 2 – 1 FT | |
| 02/11 16:30 | WLDWL | ----- | — | No data | N/A | — | 2 – 1 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | LWLLD | WDLWL | 58.8% | Under 2.5 ❌ | N/A | — | 3 – 4 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | DDLLW | DLLLL | 62.7% | Under 2.5 ❌ | @1.681xBet | +5.3% | 2 – 2 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | WDWDW | LWDLL | 54.9% | Under 2.5 ❌ | @1.741xBet | -4.5% | 2 – 1 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | WWLDL | LDDWW | 51.8% | Under 2.5 ✅ | @1.731xBet | -10.4% | 1 – 0 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | WLWWL | LDWWW | 55.5% | Over 2.5 ✅ | @1.791xBet | -0.7% | 4 – 2 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | LLWWL | WDDWL | 53.4% | Over 2.5 ❌ | @1.881xBet | +0.4% | 0 – 2 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | WDWDD | LDDLL | 54.6% | Under 2.5 ❌ | N/A | — | 4 – 0 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | WLLWL | LLDDD | 44.7% | Under 2.5 ✅ | @1.901xBet | -15.1% | 1 – 0 FT | |
| 01/11 16:30 | WDDDD | LDWWL | 54.6% | Under 2.5 ❌ | @1.681xBet | -8.3% | 3 – 1 FT |
