Italy Serie D - Girone I Predictions and Betting Tips

Round 11 • 9 Upcoming This Round • Updated 2 hours ago • UTC+3

Group I, Round 11

Sunday, November 08

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Prediction Odds Model EV Result
16:30 LDLWL WLLDD 61.6% Home N/A — —
16:30 DDLLL WDWDL 63.4% Away N/A — —
16:30 WWDWL LLLDL 74.9% Home N/A — —
16:30 LDLWL WWDDW 43.2% Away N/A — —
16:30 WWDDD WLDWL 49.7% Home N/A — —
16:30 WWLDW LWDWL 44.3% Home N/A — —
16:30 LWWDW LLWLW 66.3% Home N/A — —
16:30 WWLWL DDWLL 58.3% Home N/A — —
16:30 LWLLW LLLWW 48.7% Home N/A — —

Form: last 5 matches in all competitions, newest first.

How to Read the Prediction Table

PredictLix Serie D - Girone I Facts and Insights

League facts from all completed matches · Updated: November 2, 2026, 05:15 UTC

Results and goal volume

Metric Current2026/27 · 89 matches Previous2025/26 · 311 matches Change
Home wins 55.1% 43.1% +12.0 pp
Draws 23.6% 28.0% -4.4 pp
Away wins 21.3% 28.9% -7.6 pp
Total goals per match 2.74 2.35 +0.39
Home goals per match 1.71 1.32 +0.39
Away goals per match 1.03 1.02 +0.01
First-half goals per match 1.10 1.10 0.00
Over 1.5 goals 70.8% 67.8% +3.0 pp
Over 2.5 goals 49.4% 42.8% +6.6 pp
Over 3.5 goals 30.3% 20.3% +10.0 pp

Scoring and match patterns

Metric Current2026/27 · 89 matches Previous2025/26 · 311 matches Change
Over 4.5 goals 14.6% 9.0% +5.6 pp
First-half Over 1.5 goals 32.6% 31.8% +0.8 pp
First-half both teams scored 19.1% 15.1% +4.0 pp
Both teams scored 48.3% 47.9% +0.4 pp
BTTS and Over 2.5 33.7% 33.8% -0.1 pp
Goalless draws (0–0) 3.4% 10.0% -6.6 pp
Home clean sheets 36.0% 35.7% +0.3 pp
Away clean sheets 19.1% 26.4% -7.3 pp
One-goal winning margins 37.1% 42.4% -5.3 pp
Second-half Over 1.5 goals 46.1% 34.5% +11.6 pp

pp = percentage points. Final scores are listed with the home team first.

Most common final scores

Twelve scorelines in descending current-season frequency, continuing from the first table to the second.

Final score Current season2026/27 Previous season2025/26 Change
1–0 16.9%15 of 89 11.9%37 of 311 +5.0 pp
1–1 14.6%13 of 89 14.1%44 of 311 +0.5 pp
0–1 9.0%8 of 89 10.3%32 of 311 -1.3 pp
3–0 7.9%7 of 89 4.8%15 of 311 +3.0 pp
2–1 6.7%6 of 89 9.3%29 of 311 -2.6 pp
2–2 5.6%5 of 89 3.5%11 of 311 +2.1 pp
Final score Current season2026/27 Previous season2025/26 Change
2–0 4.5%4 of 89 7.4%23 of 311 -2.9 pp
3–1 4.5%4 of 89 3.2%10 of 311 +1.3 pp
4–2 4.5%4 of 89 0.6%2 of 311 +3.9 pp
0–0 3.4%3 of 89 10.0%31 of 311 -6.6 pp
1–2 2.2%2 of 89 6.4%20 of 311 -4.2 pp
0–2 2.2%2 of 89 3.5%11 of 311 -1.3 pp

Five key insights from the season data

  • Home wins rose to 55.1% this season from 43.1% last season, while away wins fell to 21.3% from 28.9%; one possible explanation is that home sides are converting more of their chances, since home goals per match also climbed to 1.71 from 1.32. That finishing edge could reflect more aggressive home game-state management rather than a change in away defensive structure.
  • Over 3.5 goals occurred in 30.3% of matches this season versus 20.3% last season, a +10.0 percentage point rise that outpaced the smaller moves at lower lines. One possible explanation is that matches are opening up after an early goal, with second-half Over 1.5 goals at 46.1% this season versus 34.5% last season supporting a late-game scoring mechanism.
  • Goalless draws dropped to 3.4% this season from 10.0% last season, a -6.6 percentage point change that stands out against the near-flat BTTS rate of 48.3% versus 47.9%. One possible explanation is that sides are less willing to settle into cautious opening approaches, so stalemates are being broken earlier even when both teams still score at similar overall rates.
  • Away clean sheets fell to 19.1% this season from 26.4% last season, a -7.3 percentage point drop, while away goals per match barely moved at 1.03 versus 1.02. One possible explanation is that away sides are facing more sustained home pressure and transition moments, which could raise home scoring without a matching increase in away attacking output.
  • Second-half Over 1.5 goals jumped to 46.1% this season from 34.5% last season, a +11.6 percentage point rise, while first-half goals per match held at 1.10 in both seasons. One possible explanation is that game-state effects are producing more second-half openings, with teams chasing or protecting leads after the break; this could partly regress toward last season's level in remaining matches, though the observed pattern is already clear.

AI-selected and written from the verified figures above · Published: November 1, 2026, 17:16 UTC

Current Standings

Serie D - Girone I · 2026/27

Updated: Nov 2, 2026, 00:00 UTC
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Form
1
Reggina Leader
10 7 2 1 25 7 +18 23
W D W D L
2
Sambiase
10 7 2 1 17 8 +9 23
W W D W L
3
Vibonese
10 6 3 1 22 9 +13 21
W W D D W
4
Calcio Avola
10 6 1 3 16 14 +2 19
W L D W W
5
Digiesse PraiaTortora
10 5 3 2 16 8 +8 18
W W L W L
6
Licata
10 5 2 3 12 15 -3 17
L L W W W
7
Milazzo
10 5 1 4 11 12 -1 16
L W W D W
8
Igea Virtus
10 4 3 3 23 21 +2 15
L D W L D
9
AC Palermo
9 4 2 3 12 10 +2 14
W W L D W
10
Gela
10 3 4 3 11 8 +3 12
W W D D D
11
Nissa
10 3 3 4 16 14 +2 12
W L L D D
12
Siracusa
10 4 3 3 15 12 +3 8
L D L W L
13
CastrumFavara
10 2 2 6 11 17 -6 8
L D L W L
14
Vigor Lamezia
10 2 2 6 10 18 -8 8
L L W L W
15
Modica
9 2 1 6 7 12 -5 7
L L L W L
16
Trapani 1905
10 3 2 5 7 14 -7 6
D D W L W
17
Ragusa
10 0 3 7 9 21 -12 3
L L L D L
18
Enna
10 0 3 7 4 24 -20 3
D D L L L

League-only form: five most recent matches in this competition, newest first. Prediction tables show form across all competitions.

📡

Model Accuracy — Season 2026/27

Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.

9 matches analysed Updated Nov 1, 2026 Full record — wins and losses → Value bets →
🎯 Match Result (1X2)
44.4% 4/9
⚽ Both Teams to Score
33.3% 3/9
📈 Over / Under 2.5
22.2% 2/9
🔢 Correct Score
11.1% 1/9
🛡️ Double Chance
77.8% 7/9
🤝 Draw Predictions
0.0% 0/1
📌 1X2 · draw picks
0.0% 0/1
📌 1X2 · home/away picks
50.0% 4/8

Recent Form — Last 30 Days

🎯 Match Result (1X2) 44.4% 4/9
⚽ Both Teams to Score 33.3% 3/9
📈 Over / Under 2.5 22.2% 2/9
🛡️ Double Chance 77.8% 7/9
Calibration coverage
  • Match Result (1X2): 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Both Teams to Score: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Over / Under 2.5: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Correct Score: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Double Chance: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Draw Predictions: 1/1. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?

Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.

MarketPredictedActualSample
Match Result (1X2) · <60% 45.1% 37.5% 8 (small sample)
Match Result (1X2) · 80+% 81.2% 100.0% 1 (small sample)
Both Teams to Score · 60-69% 60.2% 100.0% 1 (small sample)
Both Teams to Score · <60% 54.5% 20.0% 5 (small sample)
Both Teams to Score · 70-79% 75.0% 33.3% 3 (small sample)
Over / Under 2.5 · <60% 53.8% 28.6% 7 (small sample)
Over / Under 2.5 · 60-69% 63.9% 0.0% 1 (small sample)
Over / Under 2.5 · 70-79% 71.5% 0.0% 1 (small sample)
Correct Score · <60% 12.2% 11.1% 9 (small sample)
Double Chance · 60-69% 66.8% 0.0% 1 (small sample)
Double Chance · 80+% 86.0% 100.0% 3 (small sample)
Double Chance · 70-79% 74.6% 80.0% 5 (small sample)
Draw Predictions · <60% 27.3% 0.0% 1 (small sample)

Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.

Previous Round Results: Group I, Round 10

Date / Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Prediction Odds Model EV Result
01/11 17:00 DDLLL ----- — No data N/A — 2 – 1 FT
02/11 16:30 WWDDW LLLDL — No data N/A — 0 – 1 FT
02/11 16:30 DLLWL DWDLW — No data N/A — 2 – 6 FT
02/11 16:30 ----- WWLDW — No data N/A — 3 – 2 FT
02/11 16:30 WWDWL ----- — No data N/A — 2 – 0 FT
02/11 16:30 LDLWL LLWLW — No data N/A — 1 – 1 FT
02/11 17:00 WDWDL LWDWL — No data N/A — 0 – 1 FT
02/11 17:00 WLLDD ----- — No data N/A — 1 – 0 FT
02/11 17:00 LWWDW WWDDD — No data N/A — 1 – 0 FT
01/11 16:30 WLLDD LDLWL 49.6% Home ✅ @1.95Betano -3.3% 5 – 1 FT
01/11 16:30 WDWDL LLLDL 81.2% Home ✅ N/A — 5 – 2 FT
01/11 16:30 DDWLL DDLLL 50.7% Home ❌ N/A — 2 – 2 FT
01/11 16:30 WWDDW LWWDW 49.7% Home ✅ @2.00Betano -0.6% 2 – 1 FT
01/11 16:30 LLWLW WWLDW 42.3% Home ❌ N/A — 0 – 1 FT
01/11 16:30 LWLLW WWDDD 42.5% Home ❌ N/A — 0 – 1 FT
01/11 17:00 LWDWL WWDWL 27.3% Draw ❌ @3.201xBet -12.6% 2 – 4 FT
01/11 17:00 WLDWL LDLWL 53.4% Home ✅ N/A — 4 – 2 FT
01/11 17:00 LLLWW WWLWL 45.6% Home ❌ N/A — 0 – 1 FT