CastrumFavara vs Vibonese
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Group I - 11 • ☁️ 23.4°C, 9 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | Current price not available | 43.2% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 75.6% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 67.5% · No 32.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 66% · Under 34% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | Current price not available | 8.8% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
CastrumFavara · Home
CastrumFavara have won just one of their last five matches, conceding 12 goals across that run, including a 1-5 loss to Nissa. They did beat Vibonese 2-1 in the latest head-to-head, but that is their only recent bright spot.
Vibonese · Away
Vibonese are unbeaten in five, with three wins and two draws, scoring nine goals and failing to score in none of those matches. Their away form includes a 3-1 win at Ragusa and a 1-1 draw at Reggina.
Vibonese's Unbeaten Run Stands Out
Vibonese have scored in each of their last five matches, while CastrumFavara have kept no clean sheets in that same span and conceded 12 goals. The head-to-head is mixed: CastrumFavara won the latest meeting 2-1, but Vibonese won the two before that, including 4-0. Vibonese's model expected goals of 1.84 edge CastrumFavara's 1.57, supporting the view that the visitors can find the goals needed here. The evidence supports Vibonese win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: CastrumFavara 1.57 – 1.84 Vibonese · expected total 3.41
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
CastrumFavara
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
CastrumFavara
Vibonese
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie D - Girone I
CastrumFavara
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Vibonese
Rank among 18 Serie D - Girone I teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
CastrumFavara at home · Vibonese away, the split that matters for this fixture.
CastrumFavara (home)
Vibonese (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
CastrumFavara 1 win · 0 draws · Vibonese 3 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 2 of 4
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb 2026 | CastrumFavara | 2–1 | Vibonese | Serie D - Girone I |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Vibonese | 1–0 | CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| 02 Feb 2025 | Vibonese | 4–0 | CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| 06 Oct 2024 | CastrumFavara | 1–2 | Vibonese | Serie D - Girone I |
📈 Recent Form
CastrumFavara
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Nissa | Away | 1–5 | L |
| 28/10 | Reggina | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 18/10 | Trapani 1905 | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 11/10 | Igea Virtus | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 04/10 | Vigor Lamezia | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 27/09 | Calcio Avola | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Modica | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 16/09 | Licata | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | Gela | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Milazzo | Home | 3–0 | W |
Vibonese
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Milazzo | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 25/10 | Ragusa | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 18/10 | Gela | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 11/10 | Reggina | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 04/10 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 27/09 | Nissa | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | AC Palermo | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Igea Virtus | Away | 3–4 | L |
| 12/09 | Siracusa | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 06/09 | Trapani 1905 | Away | 4–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie D - Girone I
CastrumFavara #13 · 8 pts · Vibonese #3 · 21 pts
CastrumFavara
Vibonese
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
CastrumFavara
Vibonese
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Serie D - Girone I predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws