Italy Serie D - Girone D Predictions and Betting Tips

Round 11 • 9 Upcoming This Round • Updated 1 hour ago • UTC+3

📌 Prediction Type
🏆 Match Tips (1x2) ⚽ BTTS 📈 Over/Under 2.5 🎯 Correct Score 🔀 Double Chance 🤝 Draws
🔍 More Italy League Tips
Serie A Serie B Serie C - Girone A Campionato Primavera 1 Campionato Primavera 2 Coppa Italia Primavera Coppa Italia Serie C Coppa Italia Serie D Serie A Women Serie C - Girone B Serie C - Girone C Serie D - Girone A Serie D - Girone B Serie D - Girone C Serie D - Girone E Serie D - Girone F Serie D - Girone G Serie D - Girone H Serie D - Girone I

Group D, Round 11

Sunday, November 08

Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Prediction Odds Model EV Result
16:30 WDLWL
Pontedera Pontedera vs Solbiatese Solbiatese
WDWDD 31.3% Draw N/A — —
16:30 LDDWW
Pro Patria Pro Patria vs Pistoiese Pistoiese
WLWWL 43.5% Home N/A — —
16:30 LDWWW
Castellanzese Castellanzese vs USD Casatese USD Casatese
WLLWL 51.7% Home N/A — —
16:30 LLDDD
Pro Sesto Pro Sesto vs Correggese Correggese
DDLLW 52.9% Home N/A — —
16:30 WDDWL
Lentigione Lentigione vs Arconatese Arconatese
LWLLD 60.3% Home N/A — —
16:30 LDWWL
Città di Varese Città di Varese vs Sant'Angelo Sant'Angelo
LLWWL 27.1% Draw N/A — —
16:30 LWDLL
Cittadella Vis Modena Cittadella Vis Modena vs Pavia Pavia
WWLDL 43.5% Home N/A — —
16:30 LDDLL
Oltrepò Oltrepò vs Crema Crema
WDWDW 33.3% Draw N/A — —
16:30 DLLLL
Coriano Coriano vs Varesina Varesina
WDDDD 31.7% Draw N/A — —

Form: last 5 matches in all competitions, newest first.

How to Read the Prediction Table

Recent Team Trends — Serie D - Girone D

Historical team trends, not probabilities for the next match. Cards are picked by transparent rules: the upcoming match, confirmed results, a declared sample size (e.g. last 10 matches, all competitions) and the most distinctive fact versus the league baseline.

PredictLix Serie D - Girone D Facts and Insights

League facts from all completed matches · Updated: November 2, 2026, 05:15 UTC

Results and goal volume

Metric Current2026/27 · 89 matches Previous2025/26 · 311 matches Change
Home wins 38.2% 39.5% -1.3 pp
Draws 28.1% 26.4% +1.7 pp
Away wins 33.7% 34.1% -0.4 pp
Total goals per match 2.56 2.35 +0.21
Home goals per match 1.36 1.26 +0.10
Away goals per match 1.20 1.09 +0.11
First-half goals per match 1.21 1.11 +0.10
Over 1.5 goals 71.9% 69.5% +2.4 pp
Over 2.5 goals 49.4% 40.5% +8.9 pp
Over 3.5 goals 24.7% 20.9% +3.8 pp

Scoring and match patterns

Metric Current2026/27 · 89 matches Previous2025/26 · 311 matches Change
Over 4.5 goals 13.5% 9.3% +4.2 pp
First-half Over 1.5 goals 34.8% 29.3% +5.5 pp
First-half both teams scored 18.0% 16.1% +1.9 pp
Both teams scored 51.7% 45.7% +6.0 pp
BTTS and Over 2.5 38.2% 33.1% +5.1 pp
Goalless draws (0–0) 11.2% 9.6% +1.6 pp
Home clean sheets 31.5% 33.4% -1.9 pp
Away clean sheets 28.1% 30.5% -2.4 pp
One-goal winning margins 39.3% 39.9% -0.6 pp
Second-half Over 1.5 goals 39.3% 34.6% +4.7 pp

pp = percentage points. Final scores are listed with the home team first.

Most common final scores

Twelve scorelines in descending current-season frequency, continuing from the first table to the second.

Final score Current season2026/27 Previous season2025/26 Change
1–1 13.5%12 of 89 12.5%39 of 311 +0.9 pp
0–0 11.2%10 of 89 9.6%30 of 311 +1.6 pp
1–0 9.0%8 of 89 9.0%28 of 311 0.0 pp
1–2 9.0%8 of 89 7.1%22 of 311 +1.9 pp
0–1 7.9%7 of 89 11.9%37 of 311 -4.0 pp
2–1 7.9%7 of 89 8.7%27 of 311 -0.8 pp
Final score Current season2026/27 Previous season2025/26 Change
2–0 5.6%5 of 89 10.0%31 of 311 -4.3 pp
0–3 5.6%5 of 89 1.6%5 of 311 +4.0 pp
0–2 3.4%3 of 89 6.4%20 of 311 -3.1 pp
3–1 3.4%3 of 89 3.9%12 of 311 -0.5 pp
2–2 3.4%3 of 89 3.2%10 of 311 +0.2 pp
1–3 2.2%2 of 89 2.3%7 of 311 0.0 pp

Five key insights from the season data

  • Over 2.5 goals has risen to 49.4% this season from 40.5% last season, with over 3.5 and over 4.5 also up. One possible explanation is that more matches are opening up after an early goal, since first-half goals per match also increased.
  • Both teams scored in 51.7% of matches this season versus 45.7% last season, and BTTS with over 2.5 rose to 38.2% from 33.1%. This pattern could reflect more end-to-end transitions where both sides create and concede chances rather than one team controlling.
  • First-half goals per match increased to 1.21 this season from 1.11 last season, with first-half over 1.5 up to 34.8% from 29.3%. One possible explanation is less cautious opening approaches, allowing earlier goals that then shape the rest of the match.
  • Goalless draws rose to 11.2% this season from 9.6% last season even as total goals per match increased to 2.56 from 2.35. This could reflect a split pattern where some matches stay locked at 0-0 while others become high-scoring, rather than a uniform shift.
  • Home clean sheets fell to 31.5% this season from 33.4% last season, while away goals per match rose to 1.20 from 1.09. One possible explanation is that home sides are committing more forward and leaving space that visiting teams exploit on transition.

AI-selected and written from the verified figures above · Published: November 1, 2026, 17:16 UTC

Current Standings

Serie D - Girone D · 2026/27

Updated: Nov 2, 2026, 00:00 UTC
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Form
1
Pistoiese Leader
 10 9 0 1 24 5 +19 27
W L W W W
2
Lentigione
10 6 3 1 16 9 +7 21
W D D W W
3
Pro Patria
10 6 2 2 14 7 +7 20
L D W W D
4
Castellanzese
10 6 1 3 19 10 +9 19
L D W W W
5
USD Casatese
10 5 1 4 14 14 0 16
W L L W L
6
Pro Sesto
10 4 3 3 19 9 +10 15
L L D D D
7
Pavia
10 3 5 2 11 7 +4 14
W W L D L
8
Cittadella Vis Modena
10 4 2 4 10 8 +2 14
L W D L W
9
Solbiatese
10 3 5 2 11 10 +1 14
W D W D D
10
Sant'Angelo
10 4 2 4 11 11 0 14
L W W L L
11
Città di Varese
10 3 4 3 15 11 +4 13
L D W W L
12
Correggese
10 3 3 4 10 15 -5 12
D D L L W
13
Crema
10 3 3 4 11 17 -6 12
W D W D W
14
Varesina
10 2 5 3 13 14 -1 11
W D D D D
15
Pontedera
10 2 1 7 11 26 -15 7
W D L W L
16
Coriano
10 1 3 6 8 14 -6 6
D L L L L
17
Arconatese
10 1 3 6 10 24 -14 6
L W L L D
18
Oltrepò
10 1 2 7 5 21 -16 5
L D D L L

League-only form: five most recent matches in this competition, newest first. Prediction tables show form across all competitions.

The current season is still in progress; the previous season is complete. Possible explanations are hypotheses based on score patterns, not verified causes. Regression towards last season’s level is a scenario, not a prediction.

📡

Model Accuracy — Season 2026/27

Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.

9 matches analysed Updated Nov 1, 2026 Full record — wins and losses → Value bets →
🎯 Match Result (1X2)
33.3% 3/9
⚽ Both Teams to Score
44.4% 4/9
📈 Over / Under 2.5
33.3% 3/9
🔢 Correct Score
0.0% 0/9
🛡️ Double Chance
66.7% 6/9
🤝 Draw Predictions
0.0% 0/4
📌 1X2 · home/away picks
60.0% 3/5
📌 1X2 · draw picks
0.0% 0/4

Recent Form — Last 30 Days

🎯 Match Result (1X2) 33.3% 3/9
⚽ Both Teams to Score 44.4% 4/9
📈 Over / Under 2.5 33.3% 3/9
🛡️ Double Chance 66.7% 6/9
Calibration coverage
  • Match Result (1X2): 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Both Teams to Score: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Over / Under 2.5: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Correct Score: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Double Chance: 9/9. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
  • Draw Predictions: 4/4. All settled predictions have a stored probability.
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?

Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.

MarketPredictedActualSample
Match Result (1X2) · <60% 40.7% 33.3% 9 (small sample)
Both Teams to Score · <60% 52.6% 60.0% 5 (small sample)
Both Teams to Score · 70-79% 77.9% 0.0% 1 (small sample)
Both Teams to Score · 60-69% 65.9% 33.3% 3 (small sample)
Over / Under 2.5 · <60% 53.5% 37.5% 8 (small sample)
Over / Under 2.5 · 60-69% 62.7% 0.0% 1 (small sample)
Correct Score · <60% 13.2% 0.0% 9 (small sample)
Double Chance · 70-79% 74.2% 50.0% 2 (small sample)
Double Chance · 80+% 80.9% 100.0% 3 (small sample)
Double Chance · 60-69% 65.8% 50.0% 4 (small sample)
Draw Predictions · <60% 28.5% 0.0% 4 (small sample)

Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.

Previous Round Results: Group D, Round 10

Date / Time Home Form Match Away Form Probability Prediction Odds Model EV Result
02/11 16:30 WWDWD
Piacenza Piacenza vs Correggese Correggese
DDLLW — No data N/A — 2 – 1 FT
02/11 16:30 -----
Imolese Imolese vs Sant'Angelo Sant'Angelo
LLWWL — No data N/A — 1 – 1 FT
02/11 16:30 WLWWL
Pistoiese Pistoiese vs Lentigione Lentigione
WDDWL — No data N/A — 1 – 0 FT
02/11 16:30 WLLWD
Sasso Marconi Zola Sasso Marconi Zola vs Coriano Coriano
DLLLL — No data N/A — 2 – 0 FT
02/11 16:30 WLLWW
Desenzano Calvina Desenzano Calvina vs Pro Sesto Pro Sesto
LLDDD — No data N/A — 2 – 2 FT
02/11 16:30 -----
Sangiuliano City Sangiuliano City vs Progresso Progresso
LLLLL — No data N/A — 2 – 1 FT
02/11 16:30 LDLLW
Pro Palazzolo Pro Palazzolo vs Tuttocuoio Tuttocuoio
----- — No data N/A — 1 – 1 FT
02/11 16:30 LWDLL
Cittadella Vis Modena Cittadella Vis Modena vs Crema Crema
WDWDW — No data N/A — 2 – 1 FT
02/11 16:30 WLDWL
Rovato Vertovese Rovato Vertovese vs Trevigliese Trevigliese
----- — No data N/A — 2 – 1 FT
01/11 16:30 LWLLD
Arconatese Arconatese vs Pontedera Pontedera
WDLWL 45.2% Home ❌ N/A — 3 – 4 FT
01/11 16:30 DDLLW
Correggese Correggese vs Coriano Coriano
DLLLL 53.6% Home ❌ @1.781xBet -4.6% 2 – 2 FT
01/11 16:30 WDWDW
Crema Crema vs Cittadella Vis Modena Cittadella Vis Modena
LWDLL 29.6% Draw ❌ @3.101xBet -8.2% 2 – 1 FT
01/11 16:30 WWLDL
Pavia Pavia vs Pro Patria Pro Patria
LDDWW 28.3% Draw ❌ @3.151xBet -10.9% 1 – 0 FT
01/11 16:30 WLWWL
Pistoiese Pistoiese vs Castellanzese Castellanzese
LDWWW 56.9% Home ✅ @1.60Betano -9% 4 – 2 FT
01/11 16:30 LLWWL
Sant'Angelo Sant'Angelo vs Lentigione Lentigione
WDDWL 42.9% Away ✅ @2.101xBet -9.9% 0 – 2 FT
01/11 16:30 WDWDD
Solbiatese Solbiatese vs Oltrepò Oltrepò
LDDLL 53.7% Home ✅ N/A — 4 – 0 FT
01/11 16:30 WLLWL
USD Casatese USD Casatese vs Pro Sesto Pro Sesto
LLDDD 27.1% Draw ❌ @3.201xBet -13.3% 1 – 0 FT
01/11 16:30 WDDDD
Varesina Varesina vs Città di Varese Città di Varese
LDWWL 29.1% Draw ❌ @3.101xBet -9.8% 3 – 1 FT