Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen

Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 β€’ 13:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ Goffertstadion β€’ ☁️ 10.3Β°C, 5 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 76% 34.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 70% 70.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 85% 57.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 51.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 62% 6.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 60% 26.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.2 exp.) Under 9.5 64% 55% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.51 – 1.41 Groningen Β· expected total 2.92

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

NEC Nijmegen host Groningen at the Goffertstadion on Sunday with the two clubs separated by five points after eight rounds. Groningen sit 6th on 14 points, while NEC are 11th on 9, so the visitors arrive with the better early-season platform.

The form lines pull in opposite directions. NEC have stumbled through their last five with DDLLD, whereas Groningen bring WWDDL. The goal data is tighter than that suggests: recent expected goals read 1.03 for NEC and 1.11 for Groningen, and the match-level goal expectations sit at 1.5136 and 1.4061 β€” a near-even contest by the underlying numbers. Both squads are heavily depleted, with fifteen NEC players listed unavailable and ten for Groningen, which adds real variance to any read on this fixture.

The model leans Home at 34.3 percent with a confidence of 76, and the double chance covering 1 and 2 lands at 70.2 percent. Both teams to score is favoured at 57.1 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 51.8 percent, and the correct-score pick is 2-1 at 6.8 percent, with 2-1 the top scoreline at 8.7. Corners point Under 9.5 at 55 percent, with an expected 8.2. The draw is priced at 26.9 percent with a confidence of 60 β€” that is where value may hide if bookmakers underrate the stalemate.

The honest caveat: NEC's home tip carries only a slim edge, and with both injury lists this long, form and expected-goals numbers deserve a health warning.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

NEC Nijmegen

Form (last 5)
DAjax (A) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026DGO Ahead Eagles (H) 1–1 Β· 20/09/2026LJuventus (A) 0–5 Β· 17/09/2026LCambuur (A) 0–3 Β· 12/09/2026DExcelsior (H) 2–2 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.78
xG against (recent avg)1.69
Elo strength rating1590
Players out15

Groningen

Form (last 5)
WExcelsior (A) 5–1 Β· 11/10/2026WPEC Zwolle (H) 3–0 Β· 18/09/2026DGO Ahead Eagles (A) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026DTwente (H) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026LFortuna Sittard (H) 2–3 Β· 28/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.11
xG against (recent avg)1.77
Elo strength rating1539
Players out10
NEC NijmegenGroningen
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
2.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.80
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.78
1.11
xG against (recent avg)
1.69
1.77
Elo strength rating
1590
1539
Players out
15
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

NEC Nijmegen

Winless 6
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Groningen

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Groningen

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

NEC Nijmegen at home Β· Groningen away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

NEC Nijmegen (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–2L
D 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Groningen (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
NEC Nijmegen (home)Groningen (away)
D 2
L 2
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
2.80
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
2.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
6.8%
1–0
5.5%
2–0
4.8%
3–1
3.4%
3–0
2.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Groningen 3 wins Β· 1 draw Β· NEC Nijmegen 6 wins Β· avg 3.3 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

3
1
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
10 May 2026 Groningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
09 Nov 2025 NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Groningen Eredivisie
19 Jul 2025 Groningen 1–2 NEC Nijmegen Friendlies Clubs
08 Feb 2025 Groningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
03 Nov 2024 NEC Nijmegen 6–0 Groningen Eredivisie
25 Apr 2023 Groningen 0–1 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
26 Aug 2022 NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Groningen Eredivisie
12 Mar 2022 Groningen 4–3 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie
19 Jan 2022 Groningen 1–2 NEC Nijmegen KNVB Beker
31 Oct 2021 NEC Nijmegen 3–0 Groningen Eredivisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

NEC Nijmegen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Ajax Away 1–1 D
20/09 GO Ahead Eagles Home 1–1 D
17/09 Juventus Away 0–5 L
12/09 Cambuur Away 0–3 L
08/09 Excelsior Home 2–2 D

Groningen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Excelsior Away 5–1 W
18/09 PEC Zwolle Home 3–0 W
12/09 GO Ahead Eagles Away 1–1 D
06/09 Twente Home 2–2 D
28/08 Fortuna Sittard Home 2–3 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen #11 Β· 9 pts β€”  Groningen #6 Β· 14 pts

NEC Nijmegen

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–3L
W 2
D 3
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards13
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.78
xG against (avg)1.69
Corners for (avg)3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

Groningen

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–2L
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.11
xG against (avg)1.77
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
NEC NijmegenGroningen
W 2
D 3
L 3
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
2.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.80
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
13
8
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.78
1.11
xG against (avg)
1.69
1.77
Corners for (avg)
3.10
4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

NEC Nijmegen

3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
3
scored conceded

Groningen

2
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

NEC Nijmegen

  • ❌ Y. Moslih β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Ogawa β€” Head Injury
  • ❌ P. Schuurs β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Ouaissa β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ P. Sandler β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Kaplan β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Nejasmic β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Fonville β€” Injury
  • ❌ E. Mor β€” Inactive
  • ❌ B. Linssen β€” Injury
  • ❌ D. Geiger β€” Inactive
  • ❌ B. Nuytinck β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ K. Sierhuis β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Bischoff β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ G. Crettaz β€” Hamstring Injury

Groningen

  • ❌ M. Jeng β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ S. Resink β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ O. Zawada β€” Knock
  • ❌ T. Mercera β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Metu β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Rente β€” Injury
  • ❌ N. Brandis β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Hernes β€” Injury
  • ❌ E. van der Laan β€” Injury
  • ❌ W. Prins β€” Inactive

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws