Levante vs Athletic Club

Next match: Wed, 21 Oct 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • Round 6 • Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • ☀️ 21.1°C, 4 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away 2.26 → 2.24 ▼1%	78%	41.7%	2.24	1xBet	46%	-4.3 pp
Double Chance	12	69%	68.4%	1.35	1xBet	72%	-3.6 pp
BTTS	Yes	82%	50.5%	1.80	William Hill	53.8%	-3.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	48.3%	2.02	SBO	48.7%	-0.4 pp
Correct Score	0-1	63%	7.2%	8.00	Bet365	6.2%	+1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.3 exp.)	Under 9.5	61%	52.5%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Levante 1.20 – 1.39 Athletic Club · expected total 2.58

🧠 Match Preview

Levante sit 17th on 6 points from 7 games and host an Athletic Club side ranked 10th with 8 points from 6. The stakes are simple: the hosts need breathing room above the drop zone, while the visitors can climb with a win at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.

The model leans away. Athletic's recent expected goals of 1.77 dwarf Levante's 1.44, and the visitors' overall attacking figure of 1.3861 edges the hosts' 1.1975. Form backs it up: Levante have stumbled through DLLDW, while Athletic arrive on DDWWL. The head-to-head is lopsided too, with Athletic winning three of the last five meetings, including a 4-2 and a 0-2. Levante's injury list (R. Brugue, A. Primo, K. Etta Eyong, H. Sotelo) is short compared to Athletic's lengthy absences, which include N. Williams, O. Sancet, G. Guruzeta and A. Laporte (doubtful).

The headline tip is an away win at 41.7 percent, priced at 2.24, with confidence marked at 78. Double chance 12 lands at 68.4 percent. Both teams to score is a coin-flip at 50.5 percent and 1.8, while Over 2.5 sits at 48.3 percent and 2.02. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 7.2 percent, with 1-2 and 0-2 close behind. Corners favour Under 9.5 at 52.5 percent, with 9.3 expected.

The honest caveat: Athletic's injury list is enormous, and a patched-up lineup could blunt that attacking edge, so the 2.24 away price carries real risk.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Levante

Form (last 5)

DSevilla (H) 3–3 · 12/10/2026 LVillarreal (A) 1–3 · 20/09/2026 LBarcelona (H) 2–4 · 13/09/2026 DMalaga (A) 0–0 · 06/09/2026WReal Betis (H) 5–2 · 29/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)2.10

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.44

xG against (recent avg)2.54

Elo strength rating1394

Players out4

Athletic Club

Form (last 5)

DAlaves (H) 0–0 · 19/09/2026 DElche (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026 WAtletico Madrid (H) 3–0 · 05/09/2026WCelta Vigo (A) 2–0 · 30/08/2026LBarcelona (A) 0–2 · 27/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.20

Goals conceded (season avg)1.00

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.77

xG against (recent avg)1.04

Elo strength rating1512

Players out11

LevanteAthletic Club

DSevilla (H) 3–3 · 12/10/2026 LVillarreal (A) 1–3 · 20/09/2026 LBarcelona (H) 2–4 · 13/09/2026 DMalaga (A) 0–0 · 06/09/2026WReal Betis (H) 5–2 · 29/08/2026

DAlaves (H) 0–0 · 19/09/2026 DElche (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026 WAtletico Madrid (H) 3–0 · 05/09/2026WCelta Vigo (A) 2–0 · 30/08/2026LBarcelona (A) 0–2 · 27/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.60

1.20

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.10

1.00

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.44

1.77

xG against (recent avg)

2.54

1.04

Elo strength rating

1394

1512

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Levante

Winless 4

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Athletic Club

Unbeaten 4

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

2/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — La Liga

Levante

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Athletic Club

3rd best defence (1.00 conceded/game)

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Levante at home · Athletic Club away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Levante (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L

W 1

D 1

L 1

Played3

Goals scored (avg)3.30

Goals conceded (avg)3.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Athletic Club (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L

W 1

L 1

Played2

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score1

Levante (home)Athletic Club (away)

W 1

D 1

L 1

W 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

3.30

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

3.00

1.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1

7.2%

1–2

6.8%

0–2

5.7%

1–3

3.1%

0–3

2.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Athletic Club 6 wins · 3 draws · Levante 0 wins · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 6 of 9

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
08 Feb 2026	Athletic Club	4–2	Levante	La Liga
29 Nov 2025	Levante	0–2	Athletic Club	La Liga
07 Mar 2022	Athletic Club	3–1	Levante	La Liga
19 Nov 2021	Levante	0–0	Athletic Club	La Liga
26 Feb 2021	Levante	1–1	Athletic Club	La Liga
11 Feb 2021	Athletic Club	1–1	Levante	Copa del Rey
18 Oct 2020	Athletic Club	2–0	Levante	La Liga
12 Jul 2020	Levante	1–2	Athletic Club	La Liga
10 Nov 2019	Athletic Club	2–1	Levante	La Liga

📈 Recent Form

Levante

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
12/10	Sevilla	Home	3–3	D
20/09	Villarreal	Away	1–3	L
13/09	Barcelona	Home	2–4	L
06/09	Malaga	Away	0–0	D
29/08	Real Betis	Home	5–2	W

Athletic Club

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
19/09	Alaves	Home	0–0	D
12/09	Elche	Home	1–1	D
05/09	Atletico Madrid	Home	3–0	W
30/08	Celta Vigo	Away	2–0	W
27/08	Barcelona	Away	0–2	L

📊 Season Comparison — La Liga

Levante #17 · 6 pts — Athletic Club #10 · 8 pts

Levante

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–3L

W 1

D 3

L 3

Played7

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)2.10

Clean sheets2

Failed to score3

Yellow cards8

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.44

xG against (avg)2.54

Corners for (avg)3.00

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Athletic Club

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–2L

W 2

D 2

L 2

Played6

Goals scored (avg)1.20

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets3

Failed to score2

Yellow cards12

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.77

xG against (avg)1.04

Corners for (avg)5.40

Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

LevanteAthletic Club

W 1

D 3

L 3

W 2

D 2

L 2

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.60

1.20

Goals conceded (avg)

2.10

1.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.44

1.77

xG against (avg)

2.54

1.04

Corners for (avg)

3.00

5.40

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Levante

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Athletic Club

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Levante

❌ R. Brugue — Red Card
❌ A. Primo — Shoulder Injury
❌ K. Etta Eyong — Injury
❌ H. Sotelo — Knee Injury

Athletic Club

❌ U. Egiluz — Knee Injury
❌ A. Gorosabel — Muscle Injury
❌ B. Prados Diaz — Thigh Injury
❌ N. Serrano — Coach's decision
❌ U. Vencedor — Inactive
❌ D. Vivian — Hamstring Injury
❌ P. Canales — Muscle Injury
❌ A. Djalo — Coach's decision
❌ G. Guruzeta — Hamstring Injury
❌ O. Sancet — Muscle Injury
❌ N. Williams — Thigh Injury
❓ A. Laporte (doubtful) — Illness

More: La Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: A. Quintero