Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC

Cadiz host AD Ceuta FC at the JP Financial Estadio on Sunday in a Segunda División round 11 fixture that already smells like a relegation six-pointer. The standings tell the story plainly: Cadiz sit 20th on 7 points from 9 games, Ceuta one place and two points worse off in 21st with 5. Neither side arrives with momentum — Cadiz's last five read LWDLL, Ceuta's LDWDL — so this is less about form and more about who blinks first.

The model leans toward the hosts. It gives Cadiz a 39.2 percent win probability at 77 confidence, and the double chance 1X lands at 70.7 percent, which is where the safer money sits. The goal expectation is modest: 1.2693 for Cadiz against 0.9474 for Ceuta, with recent xG even lower at 0.93 and 0.66 respectively. That shapes the rest of the card — Under 2.5 goals at 51 percent, BTTS No at 49.2 percent, and a correct-score lean toward 1-0 at 10.2 percent, with 2-0 (8.78) and 2-1 (8.32) the next most likely. Corners point low too, Under 9.5 at 53.9 percent against an expected 8.7.

The value question is straightforward. With no bookmaker odds supplied, the 1X at 70.7 percent is the anchor, and if the market prices Cadiz anywhere near even money the home win carries the edge. The honest caveat: the head-to-head is ugly for Cadiz — a 1-3 home defeat in July, a 2-1 loss in March, and a 0-3 thumping in August 2025 — so back the model's numbers, not the badge.