AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 12:00 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube • ☁️ 20.2°C, 35 km/h, 0.1mm overcast
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 76% | 35.9% | 2.32 | 1xBet | 42.2% | -6.3 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 67% | 66.3% | — | — | 71.6% | -5.3 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 49.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80% | 47.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 65% | 8.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 65% | 27.6% | 3.32 | 1xBet | 28.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.4 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 61% | 52.1% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.13 – 1.16 Oviedo · expected total 2.29
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans toward a tight, low-scoring affair. Expected goals are modest on both sides, with Ceuta's recent attacking output at 0.66 and Oviedo's at 1.61, so the 1-0 correct score carries 8.1 percent, the top scoreline in the projection. Under 2.5 goals sits at 48.2 percent, and Under 9.5 corners at 52.1 percent with 9.4 expected.
The headline tip is a Home win at 30.9 percent with 74 confidence, though the draw at 28 percent and 68 confidence is close behind. Double chance 12 lands at 66.7 percent, and BTTS Yes at 49.6 percent. With no listed injuries and no recent head-to-head, the value likely hides in the draw and the double chance rather than the outright result.
The honest caveat: Ceuta's 30.9 percent home probability is far from dominant, and their 0.66 recent xG suggests the win tip carries real risk.
Updated 08 Oct 2026, 16:59 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
AD Ceuta FC
Oviedo
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
AD Ceuta FC
Oviedo
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División
AD Ceuta FC
Oviedo
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
AD Ceuta FC at home · Oviedo away — the split that matters for this fixture.
AD Ceuta FC (home)
Oviedo (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
📈 Recent Form
AD Ceuta FC
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Sabadell | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 04/10 | Castellón | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 26/09 | Real Sociedad II | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 20/09 | Valladolid | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 11/09 | Burgos | Away | 1–3 | L |
Oviedo
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Eldense | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 27/09 | Sporting Gijon | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Sabadell | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 13/09 | Valladolid | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 06/09 | Burgos | Home | 0–0 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División
AD Ceuta FC #21 · 5 pts — Oviedo #10 · 11 pts
AD Ceuta FC
Oviedo
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
AD Ceuta FC
Oviedo
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws