Albacete vs Eldense
Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 • 15:15 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Estadio Carlos Belmonte • 🌤 16.8°C, 17 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 76% | 35.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | 71% | 72.2% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 84% | 54.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 85% | 57.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 74% | 13.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.3% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Albacete 0.74 – 1.01 Eldense · expected total 1.75
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans on that gap. It gives the away win a 35.1 percent probability at a confidence of 76, and prices the double chance X2 at 72.2 percent. Goals look scarce: expected goals read 0.7412 for Albacete and 1.0072 for Eldense, with recent xG at 1.11 and 0.96 respectively. Under 2.5 goals carries a 57.7 percent probability, and both teams to score is tipped No at 54.4 percent. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 13.6 percent, with 0-2 next in the list. Corners are expected to be plentiful, with an expected 10.1 and Over 9.5 at 53.3 percent.
The value question is straightforward. If the bookmaker prices Eldense anywhere near the implied 35.1 percent, the away win and the X2 double chance are the cleanest angles, and Under 2.5 plus BTTS No fit the low-scoring read. The caveat is real: the head-to-head is mixed, with Albacete winning the most recent meeting 1-0 in August 2026, and a home side desperate for a first win can produce a scrappy, unpredictable afternoon.
Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Albacete
Eldense
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Albacete
Eldense
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División
Albacete
Eldense
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Albacete at home · Eldense away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Albacete (home)
Eldense (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Albacete 2 wins · 2 draws · Eldense 3 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 3 of 7
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug 2026 | Albacete | 1–0 | Eldense | Friendlies Clubs |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Albacete | 0–1 | Eldense | Segunda División |
| 16 Nov 2024 | Eldense | 2–0 | Albacete | Segunda División |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Eldense | 0–1 | Albacete | Segunda División |
| 19 Dec 2023 | Albacete | 1–1 | Eldense | Segunda División |
| 29 Jul 2023 | Albacete | 2–3 | Eldense | Friendlies Clubs |
| 04 Aug 2022 | Eldense | 1–1 | Albacete | Friendlies Clubs |
📈 Recent Form
Albacete
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Valladolid | Away | 0–5 | L |
| 03/10 | Eibar | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 25/09 | Girona | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 18/09 | Cordoba | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Granada CF | Away | 1–1 | D |
Eldense
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Cordoba | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 02/10 | Oviedo | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 27/09 | Burgos | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 19/09 | Eibar | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 13/09 | Sporting Gijon | Away | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División
Albacete #22 · 1 pts — Eldense #14 · 11 pts
Albacete
Eldense
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Albacete
Eldense
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws